Wednesday, June 25, 2014

NBA Draft Post

Okay, here it is. Over the last couple of weeks I've gotten myself caught up on what's going on with the NBA Draft this year. I'm going to mainly talk about the Bulls and what I expect out of them, but I'll also have some general draft opinions that I'll throw out there. I'll go over different guys the Bulls might wind up with, and give my thoughts for who some of the top guys will be.

First things first, I am going to go over a bunch of guys who may wind up in the same neighborhood as the Bulls, their chances of falling to the Bulls, and what I think about them. So let's get started.

Jabari Parker - Just kidding

Elfrid Payton - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Medium-Low - I like Payton a lot. He's still pretty small, but he's tall and long and already an outstanding defender. He's an excellent passer, but he also does not shoot the ball very well. Still, his quickness and athleticism, as well as his passing ability will make him a threat to score on the drive until he's able to get that jumper to at least a decent level.

Gary Harris - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Low - Harris is a skilled guard who can shoot, drive, pass, and defend. In other words, he can do a bit of everything. He's a bit on the short side to play the 2, but he has a good wingspan that should allow him to be able to defend other 2's. He also is that type of mental assassin who kicks it up a notch in clutch situations.

Rodney Hood - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Low - Hood would be everything the Bulls want. He's a small forward with good size, solid defense, and a great jumper. He's not especially quick, but should be quick enough to create his own shot. The front office would be very happy to see Hood fall to them.

Nik Stauskas - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Medium-Low - I actually think that come draft night, Stauskas will fall further than McDermott, despite some mocks disagreeing with that. Anyway, he's a great shooter. He's not going to be a great defender, but he can pass the ball rather well, and while he's not really quick, like Hood, he's still quick enough to create his own shot.

Doug McDermott - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Medium-Low - McDermott is an outstanding shooter. In fact, he's got a chance at being one of the best offensive players in this draft. I see Parker, Exum, and Smart as being better offensive players, and probably Wiggins, but there's nothing that's too sure past that. He's an outstanding shooter who, at the combine, proved that he was quicker than given credit for, so he should be able to create his own offense. He's also a very smart player who brings a lot of intangibles.

Dario Saric - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Solid - Saric will be playing in Europe for at least the next two years. After their wait for Nikola Mirotic, I'm sure the Bulls are not looking forward to waiting for another player, but I see Saric as one of the better post offensive guys in the draft with good size and as another guy who brings a lot of intangibles. He's got a very well rounded game that will make him a good player right away when he does come over.

Zach LaVine - Chances of falling to the Bulls: Medium-Low - I see LaVine as another guy the Bulls should be dreaming of having fall to them. I only recently even looked into him, but I've found a few games of his, among other things, and the scouting reports look good to me. Hyper athletic guard with very good size at 6'6". Good enough at passing to play the point, a very good jump shot, very quick, and with a mountain of potential. He just doesn't have that basketball IQ yet. Playing under Thibodeau would do wonders for this kid.

Adreian Payne - Chances of falling to the Bulls: High - Payne is an athletic power forward with very good size for the position. He's a very good shooter for a big man, and he has a good head on his shoulders. His post game could really use some work, but having his shooting ability, a good post game would be gravy to what he already is, but could also move him from a very good backup to a good starter type of player. His defense is a small question, but he shouldn't be a liability.

James Young - Chances of falling to the Bulls: High - Young is a pure offensive type of player with very good size, good defense, a good jumper, and just a very good all around game. His biggest knock is that he's not especially athletic, but he's quick enough to drive to the hoop regularly and draw attention as an offensive player. He would fit in great with the current Bulls team.

Shabazz Napier - Chances of falling to the Bulls: High - The Bulls will be going with someone they think can be a backup point guard if other options are off the table, and Shabazz Napier could be a good one. He's small, but he's a great leader who shoots the ball well and passes it well. He's very quick, which should help him to be able to penetrate before kicking the ball out. He'll be limited defensively, but should still be a good player with all of his other attributes.

Tyler Ennis - Chances of falling to the Bulls: High - Ennis is an all around type of point guard. He doesn't have great size at 6'2", but it's not horrible either. His jumper isn't great (unless he's beyond the 3 point line, for some reason), but he passes the ball well, is fairly athletic and quick, is a good leader, and is NBA ready. He really fits the profile of a good backup or solid starting point guard.

Glenn Robinson III - Chances of falling to the Bulls: High - Robinson has good bloodlines, being the son of the man that in 1994 they said would bring a championship to whoever drafted him (which wound up not being true, but he was a very good scorer throughout his career). Robinson brings good size, athleticism, and shooting. He can be a bit of a black hole on offense, as he doesn't pass the ball well, but he's not stupid by any means either, he won't totally waste the possession or take horrible shots. He's still a bit raw, but he can wind up being a very good scorer.

That's where I'll stop for now. I'm not going to go too far into the second round, but some of the possible second round picks for the Bulls could be Walter Tavares, Cameron Bairstow, Jabari Brown, James McAdoo, Khem Birch, Alec Brown, Andre Dawkins, and Joe Harris. Of course, with my record this year, probably nobody I've mentioned so far, first or second round, will wind up with the Bulls.

Moving on, this is a strong draft at the top. The big debate is really over who will be the best from the draft. There are 6 guys who I put in the top echelon. Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, and Noah Vonleh. So, of those guys who do I think will be the best? I'll spare the BS and say right now that, bias aside, I think Jabari Parker will be the best. I think Joel Embiid will be a very good, even possibly great center, but I worry about his health going forward, and I think Parker will be even better. Dante Exum reminds many of Penny Hardaway, who was a great player himself (before injuries, of course),but like I said with Embiid, I think Parker will be better. Smart is a potentially very good player, but I'm thinking more of a small 2 or a scoring point guard who can distribute, maybe a poor man's 2011 Rose. With Vonleh I see a high upside, but also a high bust potential there, and even at his best I see him as a #2 type guy on a contender. Very good, but not quite a superstar, although close.

This really comes down to Parker and Wiggins. This has been the debate for quite some time now. While there's no question that Wiggins is more athletic, last year's tape showed that Parker has the higher basketball IQ, and I'll take that over athleticism any day, assuming neither is unathletic. But Parker is older, so he's got a bit of a jump start on Wiggins. Wrong. They're within a month of each other in age with Wiggins being about 20 days older. The big thing I see people getting wrong is the athleticism, which has been a weakness for fans for a long time. Tyrus Thomas, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Ricky Davis, Wesley Johnson, and Joe Alexander were all highly regarded athletic players who were drafted very early, and all of them fell well short of expectations. While I think Wiggins will still be a very good player, and probably a superstar, athleticism is very overrated. Parker is more than athletic enough to do his thing in the NBA, but he's also a very smart player, and while I don't think Wiggins is dumb (which is why I think he will be, at worst, a very good player), Parker shows a much more advanced basketball knowledge at virtually the same age. This, along with competitive edge, has been much more of a deciding factor in a player's success than their athleticism has been over the years, and it's not even close.

Therefore, if I have to pick #1 overall, I'm going with Parker, as he has shown me the most to show that he will be the best player from this draft.

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