The Bulls made great strides last season, but still have a long way to go. This is where we look at what the Bulls need to realistically do this offseason in order to improve their team the most.
The first thing you want to look at is if you want the Bulls to go for instant improvement or wait an extra year, taking a chance, and shoot for the stars with the huge 2010 free agent season. The Bulls only lost small contracts this offseason and will likely be unable to do a whole lot outside of trades this offseason. The real question then comes in what you want the Bulls to do this offseason as far as trades go. Do they trade for high quality players, trade for expiring contracts, or do they mix it up?
The best option would be the last of the three. If the Bulls trade away all their talent and get nothing but expiring contracts in return, then they will likely have a poor season, and no matter how good Derrick Rose is, it becomes much harder to lure big name free agents to a team that doesn't play well the season before. In order to be able to lure these big names out of their current homes the Bulls will have to be at very least a playoff team. The only problem out there with trading purely for talent this offseason is that the talent in the free agent class of 2010 is so much greater. You have stars like Dirk Nowitzki (player option), LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Amar'e Stoudemire (player option), Josh Howard (team option), Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, and Tracy McGrady. Those are only the unrestricted free agents, assuming none of them sign an extension this summer, and there's a whole lot of restricted free agents out there as well.
The big advantage that the Bulls have is that they are a top 3 team as far as market goes, so they'll really be one of only three teams not completely hurt by the economy by that time while the other teams will likely not be willing to go very far over the salary cap. Of those three teams, New York is the only one that will also have significant cap room in 2010, and we all know that the Knicks have had very limited success over the past few years. Therefore, almost every player that is at least testing the free agent market in that summer will be at least seeing the Bulls as an option.
So, how do the Bulls make trades that will help them out both next year and give them a better chance at the free agent class of 2010? Well, first off, let's look at some of the rumors that have been going on lately. First off, Phoenix has said to be interested in acquiring Luol Deng. Deng is owed over $11 million during the 2010/2011 season. Supposedly Phoenix, among several other teams are also interested in Kirk Hinrich, who is owed $9 million during the 2010/2011 season. This clears up an additional $20 million for the Bulls during that offseason.
Phoenix is said to be shopping Shaquille O'Neal, who has $20 million still due for the last year of his contract. In order to make the deal work out though, the Bulls are going to have to offer more an expiring contract as well. You likely won't be able to do a trade that involves both Deng and Hinrich in a deal for O'Neal, so you go for Luol Deng in a Phoenix trade since he'll be harder to get any other team to take. If the Bulls offer Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Tim Thomas for Shaquille O'Neal, they'll likely be able to get the deal done. While this trade will leave the Bulls thin as far as their forwards go, there will be ways to fix that problem.
The next trade will be a Kirk Hinrich related trade. The Minnesota Timberwolves are said to be interested in Kirk Hinrich and will likely be under the cap for the offseason. Therefore the Bulls will be able to trade Hinrich without having to match salaries. The best thing about trading Kirk Hinrich away is that because of his now much more limited role on the Bulls, trading Hinrich can be an easy way for the Bulls to work out a trade which can make each team involved better. A potential trade here involving Hinrich could be Hinrich and the Bulls' #26 pick to the Timberwolves for Craig Smith and the Timberwolves' #18 pick. With that the Bulls would have the #16 and the #18 picks in the draft as well as having Craig Smith to help solve the problems that they have in the frontcourt. With the two picks in the draft, some up front help that should still be around includes BJ Mullens (a backup center for the time being who can benefit greatly from having Shaquille O'Neal to play against in practice and learn from), James Johnson (although he may now be out of reach at #16), Chase Budinger (amazing shooter with great athleticism), Omri Casspi, Gani Lawal, and Tyler Hansbrough. While you don't have any superstars at that point, you do have guys who can come right in and at least play.
Another issue this offseason will be bringing back Ben Gordon. At this point you've kept the Bulls a playoff team while freeing up an awful lot of money. The Bulls can afford to bring Ben Gordon back to the Bulls for up to about $10 million, which is overpaying him, but may be necessary at least for the next season, and from there on out you'll just have to eat that money. Either way, assuming the Bulls sign Gordon to a 5 year $50 million contract, the Bulls will have about $21.8 million committed to players before free agency starts. Assuming that the salary cap doesn't change (although it's likely to go down for next year, we'll just assume it returns to where it is now for the next year) and stays at about $58.7 million, then the Bulls suddenly have $36.9 million to spend on free agents. This also assumes that John Salmons will opt out of his contract, which will likely happen. After the Bulls finish signing the big free agents the Bulls should then go ahead and give Salmons an offer as well since they'll have Bird rights there.
The big question at this point is now who the Bulls sign. Do they go after one more superstar to compliment Rose, then go after a group of good role players that'll get about $4-$7 million per year, or do they go after two superstars and take on maybe one more role player? There's a good chance that many of those free agents will return to their old teams, but if the Bulls can manage to lure away LeBron James, you'll likely want to go with the role players. However, it will be hard to take LeBron away from the Cavs, and if he does go he's likely to look for the huge market in New York rather than the big market and better chance of winning in Chicago. The best two chance the Bulls have are Dwyane Wade due to his Chicago connections, and Chris Bosh since he's likely to want out of Toronto. If the Bulls can sign both of these two it's likely going to take about $32 million off of that cap surplus, leaving the Bulls with about $4 million to spend on role players.
Going with the one superstar leaves the Bulls with two major options. One is Dwyane Wade, who will likely ask for anywhere around $18-$20 million for the first year. This will allow the Bulls to spend about $17 million on role players to put around him and the rest of the remaining team who they do not resign after the outside free agent signings. The other option is Chris Bosh, who will be harder to build around, being a softer big man, but can score in many different ways. He'll likely want $14-$15 million for the first year of his deal. This will leave the Bulls with about $22 million to spend on role players. Seeing as Gordon, Rose, and Noah will likely be the only Bulls players around at that point, along with their two first round choices, the Bulls will be able to use the money to add quality role players at that point.
If the Bulls draft, say, BJ Mullens and Chase Budinger with their two draft choices, then that will give them something that looks like this:
PG: Rose
SG: Gordon
SF: Budinger
PF: Noah
C: Mullens
Throw Bosh in there and you have a nice 3 man rotation at the 4 and 5 spots. From there you need a backup point guard that is solid and then a backup wing player, or a backup combo guard along with a backup small forward in order to have a rotation set. Then you'll need backup from there, players who can step up if someone is hurt or if someone is in foul trouble. With $22 million to spend on guys making $3-$7 million at this point, there should be no problem in not only filling these spots, but getting guys to make the rotation bigger and giving guys rest. If they are able to bring back Salmons after all the signings and maybe even get Shaq back for another year or two, then they will be a very deep team with some very strong punches.
This is only one course of action that has been taken here. Over the next two years there are many paths that the Bulls can take in order to improve their team. They should realize this golden opportunity and do anything they can to take advantage of it. This won't give them a perfect team, but they can surely be a contender by making the right moves and by not having particularly bad luck in the process.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
2009 NBA Pre-Lottery Mock Draft
We're getting close to one of the most exciting times of the NBA season for fans like myself. No, this isn't the NBA Finals here, which would be the most exciting time of the NBA season, we're taking a half step down and talking about the NBA draft. The draft lottery is only two weeks away, so now is a good time to do my pre-lottery mock draft. This takes into account team needs now and possibly in the future for every team involved.
The order will currently be based upon team record:
1. Sacramento Kings - Blake Griffin 6'10" 250 lb. PF
No matter who gets this pick, Griffin is the top talent in this year's draft. An extremely athletic big man with a highly underrated jump shot (although it doesn't go out past 15 feet or so), and just about every skill you could want out of a power forward in the league. Bringing almost every intangible doesn't hurt either. The clear cut top pick in the 2009 draft.
2. Washington Wizards - Ricky Rubio 6'3" 180 lb. PG
Rubio is easily the second best talent in this draft. Some would try to argue that he's a top talent, but Griffin has done more to prove himself at this point (sure, Rubio played in the Olympics and did well, but he was not even one of the top two players on the Spanish team at the time). Rubio is a point guard that has everything at this point outside of a reliable jump shot, which is the same thing that was said about Derrick Rose. Rubio doesn't have the same size either, and Rubio will be a bit of a project, but he has the potential to be a top 3-5 point guard in the league after only a few years. The biggest question here is where he will fit in with Arenas already there as the point guard. The best answer to that is that, first off, Arenas has had a couple of big health problems over the last couple of years and is not only not a sure thing to remain healthy, but there are also questions as to how well he'll play once he is back for an extended amount of time. Throw on top of that the fact that he plays more like a shooting guard and is in no way a true point guard and you realize that you can just push Arenas to the 2. One last thing is that Rubio may not be ready to start right away, so it isn't like you'll need to accommodate for him right away in the starting lineup.
3. LA Clippers - Jordan Hill 6'10" 235 lb. PF
At this point the Clippers have a number of choices. There's Hasheem Thabeet, the defensive monster from UConn as a center. There's James Harden, the star shooting guard from Arizona state, and there's another shooting guard in Demar DeRozan that top this list. Other possibilities include point guards Brandon Jennings and Jonny Flynn. However, the best pick for them would be Jordan Hill. The Clippers already seem to be stacked with big men. Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Zach Randolph, and DeAndre Jordan to name the main ones. Three of those guys are centers, which rules out Hasheem Thabeet, especially considering that the Clippers seem to be open to actually moving Kaman since Jordan has shown the potential to actually make a good center in the future. At power forward, however, outside of Randolph they have Brian Skinner, who is a good defender, but not much else, and Marcus Camby, who mainly plays center. Randolph himself has shown to bring failure to every team he goes to. He doesn't play a style that is conductive to good team basketball, and is overall someone they should be open to moving. This is why they should bring in Hill. He's a power forward who has a game that is much more team oriented than any other main power forward option the Clippers have (considering Camby mainly a center option). His game has been compared mostly to Chris Bosh, but Hill can also play some solid defense. He clearly makes the most sense for the Clippers at this point in the draft.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden 6'5" 220 lb. SG
He's been compared to players like Manu Ginobili and Paul Pierce, but there really is somethin even different those two in Harden. He's athletic, his jumper from mid-range is deadly (although from further out he's a bit of a question), he's a very good passer, and he's got loads of potential. I'd still say that DeRozan has the potential to be the better player between the two, but Harden right now is the better player, and while DeRozan does have the edge, it is not an edge that is very large. On top of that, it's potential we're talking about, and year after year several teams shoot themselves in the foot by drafting completely based upon potential. Harden is not only a safe pick here, but a pick that also includes added potential as a bonus. Oklahoma City is set at point guard, shooting guard, and the forward spots for the future, their only questions are at shooting guard and center spots. Right now Harden looks like he'll be able to help the Thunder out more than Thabeet, and the Thunder do have Nenad Kristic at center along with Nick Collison and Robert Swift (if he's ever healthy), who don't make up some horribly fearsome group, but one that can at least not kill the team.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Demar DeRozan 6'6" 210 lb. SG
This is a really tough one to pick. The Timberwolves could really upgrade at almost any position outside of the 4 and 5 at this point in the draft. Sure, more backup would be desirable at those positions, but this is too early to be drafting for backups. Right now they have Mike Miller who is a good option to start at the 3, and Corey Brewer is coming along on offense to go along with his outstanding defense. That leaves the guard spots. Right now the main guards on the Timberwolves are Sebastian Telfair, Randy Foye, and Bobby Brown. Kevin Ollie is a good veteran, but it's tough to put him as a main option. Mike Miller and Corey Brewer can also play guard, but could be better used at forward for the majority of the time with this team. Bobby Brown and Sebastial Telfair are the main point guards. Telfair has come along as a solid point guard after not living up to expectations for the majority of his career thus far, and Brown is a good backup. Randy Foye is the main shooting guard option with Miller/Brewer backing him up. Bringing in DeRozan would give the Timberwolves a project at the 2 spot, but one who could come in right away with backup minutes. A rotation soon consisting of DeRozan, Telfair, and Foye at the guard positions (with Foye alternating) could soon make the Timberwolves into a team with a very good backcourt.
6. Memphis Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet 7'3" 265 lb. C
It's even surprising to me to see Thabeet fall down this far, but it's a good possibility given the other team needs out there. The Grizzlies do already have Marc Gasol, who is a good center, without a doubt, but I just can't see them letting Thabeet fall any further. Another scenario could see them trading down with another team who is in need of a good center (New York? Toronto (especially if they trade Bosh and put Bargnani at the 4)?). However, the Grizzlies have a good backcourt with Conley and Mayo running things, and you don't know for sure if Brandon Jennings will be an improvement over either of them. Rudy Gay is there to stay at the 3 spot, and there isn't a power forward that they could even consider reaching for at this point (unless they make Earl Clark into a power forward, which would not play to his real talents), and while Marc Gasol is a very good option at the center spot, it never hurts to have an extra big man there, and Hasheem Thabeet at this point seems to be the clear cut best player available.
7. Golden State Warriors - Jonny Flynn 6' 185 lb PG
Putting Monta Ellis with Brandon Jennings in a starting backcourt would likely result in a chemistry disaster. While Jennings is likely a slightly better point guard prospect than Flynn, Flynn is the man who would do more to make Golden State a better team. Flynn really shot up the charts after some amazing performances late in the season with Syracuse, and while the backcourt with him and Ellis would be fairly undersized, but that's not entirely rare in the NBA at this point. Flynn has a drive and kick ability that could really do wonders in opening up both Ellis and Jackson for shots. While he's small, he has a style that resembles Damon Stoudamire and could really fit in well with this Golden State offense.
8. New York Knicks - Brandon Jennings 6'1" 170 lb PG
Jennings is a tough player to really figure out. He really is more of a scoring type of point guard, but he also is a very good passer. His game resembles that of a prime Stephon Marbury mixed in with a Kenny Anderson type of player. His main focus will likely be to score, but he'll always keep his eye out for the assist. Putting him in a Mike D'Antoni system could really work wonders for his career, and with how they burned Chris Duhon out so quickly last year it could really help to at least have him learn the ropes as a backup who can come in for good minutes.
9. Toronto Raptors - Earl Clark 6'10" 230 lb. SF
Toronto could use an upgrade at the small forward spot, and by bringing in Earl Clark this could be a very good upgrade. Not only would they get the unique and diverse skill set that Clark brings, but having a front line with an average height of 6'11" could really cover up for some of the softness that they really have down low. If they don't trade Bosh, that is.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Gerald Henderson 6'5" 210 lb SG
Henderson brings the Bucks a guy who can come right in and be a very good contributor off the bench, but also someone who can be a solid starting shooting guard if Michael Redd goes down again. While the point guard position isn't entirely stable for the Bucks with the inconsistent Ramon Sessions and defenseless Luke Ridnour as the main two guys there, the Bucks could also use more stability backing up Redd, and that is what makes Henderson the best guy to pick right here.
11. New Jersey Nets - Chase Budinger 6'7" 218 lb SG/SF
Budinger is a player with an automatic jump shot and amazing athleticism. His only weaknesses are his defense, lateral quickness, and ball handling. Given who the Nets have as their starting guards, it doesn't look like he'll have to do much ball handling. The defense does hurt, but that can develop with age, and can be masked by other players ranging from the big men to the guards along with him. This is assuming that the Nets play him at the small forward position, which on this team is a position that he could come right in and start at. His ball handling especially won't be a problem, as his offensive game will likely include moving off the ball and getting open after either Carter or Harris drive and help to open him up. If the Nets decide to trade Carter then things could get a bit complicated, but as it stands, Budinger looks to be the best pick for the Nets.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Wayne Ellington 6'5" 195 lb. SG
This is the point where you start drafting while considering backups who could be future starters. This makes Ellington perfect for the Bobcats. They have Raja Bell starting at the shooting guard spot, and a good starter at that. They also have their entire starting lineup pretty well filled with Felton (or Augustin), Bell, Wallace, Diaw, and Okafor. They have several backups in the frontcourt as well as either Felton or Augustin at the point guard spot. However, they really don't have a good shooting guard backup. This is what Ellington could start off as for the team. He's a guy with good all around shooting guard skills, but who isn't great at any single one of them, although some could still develop.
13. Indiana Pacers - Patrick Patterson 6'8" 235 lb PF
This may seem like a bit of a stretch at this point, but it's what the Pacers could really use for their team. Right now they have a starting lineup that consists of a lot of offense with little defense. TJ Ford is a very good offensive point guard, but is a poor defender outside of getting his steals. Mike Dunleavy is a very good offensive shooting guard (who can play the 3 as well), but hasn't ever even heard of defense. Troy Murphy is a very good offensive player and rebounder, but when it comes to defense he's very poor. Danny Granger is one exception as an overall good player, and Jeff Foster is a very good defender, but not much on offense. When you look at the backups though you see Jarrett Jack, who's a solid defender, and Marquis Daniels, another very good defender at the guard spots. Both guys bring offense to the table as well. They have a couple of solid options at center as well, but what they could really use is that banger type, that Patrick Patterson type at the power forward spot. He'll bring a real toughness down low and makes up for his lack of height with athleticism and a solid jumper out to mid range.
14. Phoenix Suns - Tyreke Evans 6'6" 220 lb SG
Evans brings an excellent backup for Jason Richardson who can compliment Barbosa very well when he's backing up Nash. While Barbosa is the scoring type of backup PG, Evans is a backup SG who can play more of a point guard role for the offense. Evans also has the ability to score in bunches, which is very good since it shows a high level of versatility. Eventually Evans could be a star in the league, but will be a bit of a project, so he does fit in well with the current Phoenix team.
15. Detroit Pistons - Stephen Curry 6'1" 180 lb PG/SF
Considering that it looks like Iverson is going to be on his way out with this Pistons (at least after his contract expires after next year), and likely won't be playing next year for them rather he's with them or not, Curry's a guy who the Pistons could bring in to fill his role, but fill it without the ego that goes along with Iverson. Curry also is a much better shooter than Iverson has ever been in his career, although not nearly as quick or as strong of a penetrator. He'll be a deadly weapon for the Pistons to have off the bench.
16. Chicago Bulls - BJ Mullens 7' 275 lb. C
Given the current situation on the Bulls, this is a no-brainer. While Mullens will be a project, he will have a great mentor in Brad Miller to help him out and help make him into the best player he can be. He's a center who not only brings great size, but also brings excellent athleticism, a good jumper out to at least 15 feet, through the roof potential, and actual down low post skills. Mullens has had his basketball IQ questioned recently, but has a history of showing a good basketball IQ, and most Ohio State centers get closed down in the system that Ohio State runs (which makes it amazing that for 3 years in a row they were able to get top recruits as centers). Mullens really seems to be a no-brainer with this pick.
17. Philadelphia 76ers - Eric Maynor 6'3" 180 lb PG
With Andre Miller going into free agency, it's not a sure thing that the 76ers will have a point guard who can run things next season. What Maynor brings may not be a point guard who'll come in and bring the same things that Miller brought to the table, but someone who can at least come in and play a true point guard style. Maynor's another one of those players who's good at everything, but not especially good at any single thing. The big thing that he does bring that Miller never brought to the 76ers is good defense. He's also someone who can be drafted at the 17 spot who can actually come right in and potentially start.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves - James Johnson 6'8" 235 lb SF
It's much easier to pick for the Wolves at this point since the whole filling of needs thing becomes less important than getting the right player at this time (of course later when trying to get the steal to fill that one need things get a little more difficult again). The Wolves do have Mike Miller and Corey Brewer already at the 3 spot, but Johnson would be nice to have as insurance, especially if Brewer goes down again, Johnson would bring another excellent defender in. Johnson has solid offensive skills, but is as tough as nails on defense and is a great hustle player.
19. Atlanta Hawks - Ty Lawson 6' 195 lb PG
The Hawks are tough team to draft for, even at this point. They have Mike Bibby at the point with Acie Law backing him up. Law, for the most part, hasn't been what they had hoped he would be in Atlanta. That is why it really looks like picking up Ty Lawson is a good idea at this point. Bibby is now in his early 30's and won't be around forever. The Hawks had enough of a problem with the point guard spot before picking up Bibby in 2008 that they will likely make sure they have the position addressed for when he is gone. Lawson is not very big at all, but he brings great quickness and good fundamentals. He's good with passing and has a good jump shot, although he'll have to find ways to bring whatever he can to the table on defense.
20. Utah Jazz - Terrence Williams 6'6" 220 lb SG/SF
Williams is a freakishly athletic, defensive minded wing player. His offense is very raw at this point, but he brings something to Utah that they haven't seemed to have in ages, excitement. Nothing against Deron Williams, who is at least the second best point guard in the league, but Williams has that ability to make that play that makes you jump out of your seat in disbelief. On defense he'll be a real gem for the Jazz. If his offensive game ever comes around he could wind up being a steal this low in the draft.
21. New Orleans Hornets - Jrue Holiday 6'3" 205 PG/SG
Obviously the Hornets do not need a point guard by any means, but having someone who can come in there and not only give Paul occasional quality backup minutes along with playing the 2 is something that could really benefit the Hornets.
22. Dallas Mavericks - DeJuan Blair 6'6" 285 lb PF
Blair is very short for the power forward position, nobody can argue that. However, he's a guy who adds a world of toughness, and that is something that the Dallas Mavericks could really use. Playing in a frontcourt that will otherwise pretty much be Dirk and Josh Howard, he could be very useful in there by adding his toughness. He won't bring much more, as while he does have long arms, he has very little athleticism and pretty much no jumper to talk about either, but just by bringing some toughness to the forwards of the Dallas Mavericks.
23. Sacramento Kings - Patrick Mills 5'11" 180 lb PG
This pick comes down to either Mills or Teague. Either one would be a very good pick at this point and even a potential starter by the end of the season. Both are very quick, but Mills just seems to have the better passing skills and has done more to really show that he can improve an entire team at this point than Teague, who was on a team with plenty of other very good players while Mills, when healthy last season, pretty much carried that St. Mary's team. Outside of that, he nearly single handedly embarassed the entire US Olympic team as part of the Australian team over the summer. The Kings can really use a better point guard than Beno Udrih, and Mills can easily be that guy.
24. Portland Trailblazers - Jeff Teague 6'2" 175 lb PG
I wasn't kidding when I said it was a close call between Mills and Teague. Teague has a very similar skill set, maybe not as quick or as good at passing, but it's fairly close. Also, Teague doesn't have the Olympics performance that Mills had either, but other than that, the guy does have a skill set that is very comparable, and the Trailblazers could use someone to challenge Steve Blake at point guard, who's good, but just not the guy you really want as your starter.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder - Gani Lawal 6'9" 233 lb PF
As a backup power forward Lawal can bring some athleticism and strength to really help bring some toughness to the front line for the Thunder.
26. Chicago Bulls - Sam Young 6'6" 220 lb SF
This is basically between Young and Darren Collison. With the Bulls addressing their frontcourt situation earlier in the draft with Mullens and otherwise looking to have a strong frontcout, the two thing they look at here are either another wing player or a backup point guard who can relieve Rose so that Rose doesn't burn himself out. Young winds up being the pick here just due to being the better player and someone who can bring a high level of toughness to the team as well.
27. Memphis Grizzlies - Tyler Hansbrough 6'8" 245 lb PF
Hansbrough is a bit short of the PF spot in the NBA, but he has a good jumper out to mid range and brings a level of toughness and intensity that can help any team in the league. Given that the Grizzlies are worst at the small forward position, he's at least someone to give a shot there as well.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves - Darren Collison 6' 170 lb PG
Well, in case Telfair implodes and Brown for one reason or another isn't there, having Collison there can possibly provide someone at point guard that at least knows how to play the game.
29. LA Lakers - Omri Casspi 6'8" 225 SF
A small forward with the potential to be something in the NBA, but nothing is for sure. The Lakers have enough talent that they can take some risks, and Casspi is one that could very well pay off.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Jeff Pendergraph 6'9" 230 lb PF
The Cavaliers are fairly old as far as their bigs go, and with a possible retirement from Zydrunas Ilgauskas coming in the not so distant future along with Ben Wallace's contract running out after the 2010 season, it wouldn't hurt to at least to try to find someone who could possibly come in, learn from those two while they're there, and then at least try to stand in for them until the Cavaliers get someone else.
At this point it's too early to call the second round. The second round mock draft will come along with the third and final mock draft. The next mock draft will be the post lottery draft, which is not likely to see any major changes from this mock draft outside of the first fourteen picks.
The order will currently be based upon team record:
1. Sacramento Kings - Blake Griffin 6'10" 250 lb. PF
No matter who gets this pick, Griffin is the top talent in this year's draft. An extremely athletic big man with a highly underrated jump shot (although it doesn't go out past 15 feet or so), and just about every skill you could want out of a power forward in the league. Bringing almost every intangible doesn't hurt either. The clear cut top pick in the 2009 draft.
2. Washington Wizards - Ricky Rubio 6'3" 180 lb. PG
Rubio is easily the second best talent in this draft. Some would try to argue that he's a top talent, but Griffin has done more to prove himself at this point (sure, Rubio played in the Olympics and did well, but he was not even one of the top two players on the Spanish team at the time). Rubio is a point guard that has everything at this point outside of a reliable jump shot, which is the same thing that was said about Derrick Rose. Rubio doesn't have the same size either, and Rubio will be a bit of a project, but he has the potential to be a top 3-5 point guard in the league after only a few years. The biggest question here is where he will fit in with Arenas already there as the point guard. The best answer to that is that, first off, Arenas has had a couple of big health problems over the last couple of years and is not only not a sure thing to remain healthy, but there are also questions as to how well he'll play once he is back for an extended amount of time. Throw on top of that the fact that he plays more like a shooting guard and is in no way a true point guard and you realize that you can just push Arenas to the 2. One last thing is that Rubio may not be ready to start right away, so it isn't like you'll need to accommodate for him right away in the starting lineup.
3. LA Clippers - Jordan Hill 6'10" 235 lb. PF
At this point the Clippers have a number of choices. There's Hasheem Thabeet, the defensive monster from UConn as a center. There's James Harden, the star shooting guard from Arizona state, and there's another shooting guard in Demar DeRozan that top this list. Other possibilities include point guards Brandon Jennings and Jonny Flynn. However, the best pick for them would be Jordan Hill. The Clippers already seem to be stacked with big men. Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Zach Randolph, and DeAndre Jordan to name the main ones. Three of those guys are centers, which rules out Hasheem Thabeet, especially considering that the Clippers seem to be open to actually moving Kaman since Jordan has shown the potential to actually make a good center in the future. At power forward, however, outside of Randolph they have Brian Skinner, who is a good defender, but not much else, and Marcus Camby, who mainly plays center. Randolph himself has shown to bring failure to every team he goes to. He doesn't play a style that is conductive to good team basketball, and is overall someone they should be open to moving. This is why they should bring in Hill. He's a power forward who has a game that is much more team oriented than any other main power forward option the Clippers have (considering Camby mainly a center option). His game has been compared mostly to Chris Bosh, but Hill can also play some solid defense. He clearly makes the most sense for the Clippers at this point in the draft.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden 6'5" 220 lb. SG
He's been compared to players like Manu Ginobili and Paul Pierce, but there really is somethin even different those two in Harden. He's athletic, his jumper from mid-range is deadly (although from further out he's a bit of a question), he's a very good passer, and he's got loads of potential. I'd still say that DeRozan has the potential to be the better player between the two, but Harden right now is the better player, and while DeRozan does have the edge, it is not an edge that is very large. On top of that, it's potential we're talking about, and year after year several teams shoot themselves in the foot by drafting completely based upon potential. Harden is not only a safe pick here, but a pick that also includes added potential as a bonus. Oklahoma City is set at point guard, shooting guard, and the forward spots for the future, their only questions are at shooting guard and center spots. Right now Harden looks like he'll be able to help the Thunder out more than Thabeet, and the Thunder do have Nenad Kristic at center along with Nick Collison and Robert Swift (if he's ever healthy), who don't make up some horribly fearsome group, but one that can at least not kill the team.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Demar DeRozan 6'6" 210 lb. SG
This is a really tough one to pick. The Timberwolves could really upgrade at almost any position outside of the 4 and 5 at this point in the draft. Sure, more backup would be desirable at those positions, but this is too early to be drafting for backups. Right now they have Mike Miller who is a good option to start at the 3, and Corey Brewer is coming along on offense to go along with his outstanding defense. That leaves the guard spots. Right now the main guards on the Timberwolves are Sebastian Telfair, Randy Foye, and Bobby Brown. Kevin Ollie is a good veteran, but it's tough to put him as a main option. Mike Miller and Corey Brewer can also play guard, but could be better used at forward for the majority of the time with this team. Bobby Brown and Sebastial Telfair are the main point guards. Telfair has come along as a solid point guard after not living up to expectations for the majority of his career thus far, and Brown is a good backup. Randy Foye is the main shooting guard option with Miller/Brewer backing him up. Bringing in DeRozan would give the Timberwolves a project at the 2 spot, but one who could come in right away with backup minutes. A rotation soon consisting of DeRozan, Telfair, and Foye at the guard positions (with Foye alternating) could soon make the Timberwolves into a team with a very good backcourt.
6. Memphis Grizzlies - Hasheem Thabeet 7'3" 265 lb. C
It's even surprising to me to see Thabeet fall down this far, but it's a good possibility given the other team needs out there. The Grizzlies do already have Marc Gasol, who is a good center, without a doubt, but I just can't see them letting Thabeet fall any further. Another scenario could see them trading down with another team who is in need of a good center (New York? Toronto (especially if they trade Bosh and put Bargnani at the 4)?). However, the Grizzlies have a good backcourt with Conley and Mayo running things, and you don't know for sure if Brandon Jennings will be an improvement over either of them. Rudy Gay is there to stay at the 3 spot, and there isn't a power forward that they could even consider reaching for at this point (unless they make Earl Clark into a power forward, which would not play to his real talents), and while Marc Gasol is a very good option at the center spot, it never hurts to have an extra big man there, and Hasheem Thabeet at this point seems to be the clear cut best player available.
7. Golden State Warriors - Jonny Flynn 6' 185 lb PG
Putting Monta Ellis with Brandon Jennings in a starting backcourt would likely result in a chemistry disaster. While Jennings is likely a slightly better point guard prospect than Flynn, Flynn is the man who would do more to make Golden State a better team. Flynn really shot up the charts after some amazing performances late in the season with Syracuse, and while the backcourt with him and Ellis would be fairly undersized, but that's not entirely rare in the NBA at this point. Flynn has a drive and kick ability that could really do wonders in opening up both Ellis and Jackson for shots. While he's small, he has a style that resembles Damon Stoudamire and could really fit in well with this Golden State offense.
8. New York Knicks - Brandon Jennings 6'1" 170 lb PG
Jennings is a tough player to really figure out. He really is more of a scoring type of point guard, but he also is a very good passer. His game resembles that of a prime Stephon Marbury mixed in with a Kenny Anderson type of player. His main focus will likely be to score, but he'll always keep his eye out for the assist. Putting him in a Mike D'Antoni system could really work wonders for his career, and with how they burned Chris Duhon out so quickly last year it could really help to at least have him learn the ropes as a backup who can come in for good minutes.
9. Toronto Raptors - Earl Clark 6'10" 230 lb. SF
Toronto could use an upgrade at the small forward spot, and by bringing in Earl Clark this could be a very good upgrade. Not only would they get the unique and diverse skill set that Clark brings, but having a front line with an average height of 6'11" could really cover up for some of the softness that they really have down low. If they don't trade Bosh, that is.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Gerald Henderson 6'5" 210 lb SG
Henderson brings the Bucks a guy who can come right in and be a very good contributor off the bench, but also someone who can be a solid starting shooting guard if Michael Redd goes down again. While the point guard position isn't entirely stable for the Bucks with the inconsistent Ramon Sessions and defenseless Luke Ridnour as the main two guys there, the Bucks could also use more stability backing up Redd, and that is what makes Henderson the best guy to pick right here.
11. New Jersey Nets - Chase Budinger 6'7" 218 lb SG/SF
Budinger is a player with an automatic jump shot and amazing athleticism. His only weaknesses are his defense, lateral quickness, and ball handling. Given who the Nets have as their starting guards, it doesn't look like he'll have to do much ball handling. The defense does hurt, but that can develop with age, and can be masked by other players ranging from the big men to the guards along with him. This is assuming that the Nets play him at the small forward position, which on this team is a position that he could come right in and start at. His ball handling especially won't be a problem, as his offensive game will likely include moving off the ball and getting open after either Carter or Harris drive and help to open him up. If the Nets decide to trade Carter then things could get a bit complicated, but as it stands, Budinger looks to be the best pick for the Nets.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Wayne Ellington 6'5" 195 lb. SG
This is the point where you start drafting while considering backups who could be future starters. This makes Ellington perfect for the Bobcats. They have Raja Bell starting at the shooting guard spot, and a good starter at that. They also have their entire starting lineup pretty well filled with Felton (or Augustin), Bell, Wallace, Diaw, and Okafor. They have several backups in the frontcourt as well as either Felton or Augustin at the point guard spot. However, they really don't have a good shooting guard backup. This is what Ellington could start off as for the team. He's a guy with good all around shooting guard skills, but who isn't great at any single one of them, although some could still develop.
13. Indiana Pacers - Patrick Patterson 6'8" 235 lb PF
This may seem like a bit of a stretch at this point, but it's what the Pacers could really use for their team. Right now they have a starting lineup that consists of a lot of offense with little defense. TJ Ford is a very good offensive point guard, but is a poor defender outside of getting his steals. Mike Dunleavy is a very good offensive shooting guard (who can play the 3 as well), but hasn't ever even heard of defense. Troy Murphy is a very good offensive player and rebounder, but when it comes to defense he's very poor. Danny Granger is one exception as an overall good player, and Jeff Foster is a very good defender, but not much on offense. When you look at the backups though you see Jarrett Jack, who's a solid defender, and Marquis Daniels, another very good defender at the guard spots. Both guys bring offense to the table as well. They have a couple of solid options at center as well, but what they could really use is that banger type, that Patrick Patterson type at the power forward spot. He'll bring a real toughness down low and makes up for his lack of height with athleticism and a solid jumper out to mid range.
14. Phoenix Suns - Tyreke Evans 6'6" 220 lb SG
Evans brings an excellent backup for Jason Richardson who can compliment Barbosa very well when he's backing up Nash. While Barbosa is the scoring type of backup PG, Evans is a backup SG who can play more of a point guard role for the offense. Evans also has the ability to score in bunches, which is very good since it shows a high level of versatility. Eventually Evans could be a star in the league, but will be a bit of a project, so he does fit in well with the current Phoenix team.
15. Detroit Pistons - Stephen Curry 6'1" 180 lb PG/SF
Considering that it looks like Iverson is going to be on his way out with this Pistons (at least after his contract expires after next year), and likely won't be playing next year for them rather he's with them or not, Curry's a guy who the Pistons could bring in to fill his role, but fill it without the ego that goes along with Iverson. Curry also is a much better shooter than Iverson has ever been in his career, although not nearly as quick or as strong of a penetrator. He'll be a deadly weapon for the Pistons to have off the bench.
16. Chicago Bulls - BJ Mullens 7' 275 lb. C
Given the current situation on the Bulls, this is a no-brainer. While Mullens will be a project, he will have a great mentor in Brad Miller to help him out and help make him into the best player he can be. He's a center who not only brings great size, but also brings excellent athleticism, a good jumper out to at least 15 feet, through the roof potential, and actual down low post skills. Mullens has had his basketball IQ questioned recently, but has a history of showing a good basketball IQ, and most Ohio State centers get closed down in the system that Ohio State runs (which makes it amazing that for 3 years in a row they were able to get top recruits as centers). Mullens really seems to be a no-brainer with this pick.
17. Philadelphia 76ers - Eric Maynor 6'3" 180 lb PG
With Andre Miller going into free agency, it's not a sure thing that the 76ers will have a point guard who can run things next season. What Maynor brings may not be a point guard who'll come in and bring the same things that Miller brought to the table, but someone who can at least come in and play a true point guard style. Maynor's another one of those players who's good at everything, but not especially good at any single thing. The big thing that he does bring that Miller never brought to the 76ers is good defense. He's also someone who can be drafted at the 17 spot who can actually come right in and potentially start.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves - James Johnson 6'8" 235 lb SF
It's much easier to pick for the Wolves at this point since the whole filling of needs thing becomes less important than getting the right player at this time (of course later when trying to get the steal to fill that one need things get a little more difficult again). The Wolves do have Mike Miller and Corey Brewer already at the 3 spot, but Johnson would be nice to have as insurance, especially if Brewer goes down again, Johnson would bring another excellent defender in. Johnson has solid offensive skills, but is as tough as nails on defense and is a great hustle player.
19. Atlanta Hawks - Ty Lawson 6' 195 lb PG
The Hawks are tough team to draft for, even at this point. They have Mike Bibby at the point with Acie Law backing him up. Law, for the most part, hasn't been what they had hoped he would be in Atlanta. That is why it really looks like picking up Ty Lawson is a good idea at this point. Bibby is now in his early 30's and won't be around forever. The Hawks had enough of a problem with the point guard spot before picking up Bibby in 2008 that they will likely make sure they have the position addressed for when he is gone. Lawson is not very big at all, but he brings great quickness and good fundamentals. He's good with passing and has a good jump shot, although he'll have to find ways to bring whatever he can to the table on defense.
20. Utah Jazz - Terrence Williams 6'6" 220 lb SG/SF
Williams is a freakishly athletic, defensive minded wing player. His offense is very raw at this point, but he brings something to Utah that they haven't seemed to have in ages, excitement. Nothing against Deron Williams, who is at least the second best point guard in the league, but Williams has that ability to make that play that makes you jump out of your seat in disbelief. On defense he'll be a real gem for the Jazz. If his offensive game ever comes around he could wind up being a steal this low in the draft.
21. New Orleans Hornets - Jrue Holiday 6'3" 205 PG/SG
Obviously the Hornets do not need a point guard by any means, but having someone who can come in there and not only give Paul occasional quality backup minutes along with playing the 2 is something that could really benefit the Hornets.
22. Dallas Mavericks - DeJuan Blair 6'6" 285 lb PF
Blair is very short for the power forward position, nobody can argue that. However, he's a guy who adds a world of toughness, and that is something that the Dallas Mavericks could really use. Playing in a frontcourt that will otherwise pretty much be Dirk and Josh Howard, he could be very useful in there by adding his toughness. He won't bring much more, as while he does have long arms, he has very little athleticism and pretty much no jumper to talk about either, but just by bringing some toughness to the forwards of the Dallas Mavericks.
23. Sacramento Kings - Patrick Mills 5'11" 180 lb PG
This pick comes down to either Mills or Teague. Either one would be a very good pick at this point and even a potential starter by the end of the season. Both are very quick, but Mills just seems to have the better passing skills and has done more to really show that he can improve an entire team at this point than Teague, who was on a team with plenty of other very good players while Mills, when healthy last season, pretty much carried that St. Mary's team. Outside of that, he nearly single handedly embarassed the entire US Olympic team as part of the Australian team over the summer. The Kings can really use a better point guard than Beno Udrih, and Mills can easily be that guy.
24. Portland Trailblazers - Jeff Teague 6'2" 175 lb PG
I wasn't kidding when I said it was a close call between Mills and Teague. Teague has a very similar skill set, maybe not as quick or as good at passing, but it's fairly close. Also, Teague doesn't have the Olympics performance that Mills had either, but other than that, the guy does have a skill set that is very comparable, and the Trailblazers could use someone to challenge Steve Blake at point guard, who's good, but just not the guy you really want as your starter.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder - Gani Lawal 6'9" 233 lb PF
As a backup power forward Lawal can bring some athleticism and strength to really help bring some toughness to the front line for the Thunder.
26. Chicago Bulls - Sam Young 6'6" 220 lb SF
This is basically between Young and Darren Collison. With the Bulls addressing their frontcourt situation earlier in the draft with Mullens and otherwise looking to have a strong frontcout, the two thing they look at here are either another wing player or a backup point guard who can relieve Rose so that Rose doesn't burn himself out. Young winds up being the pick here just due to being the better player and someone who can bring a high level of toughness to the team as well.
27. Memphis Grizzlies - Tyler Hansbrough 6'8" 245 lb PF
Hansbrough is a bit short of the PF spot in the NBA, but he has a good jumper out to mid range and brings a level of toughness and intensity that can help any team in the league. Given that the Grizzlies are worst at the small forward position, he's at least someone to give a shot there as well.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves - Darren Collison 6' 170 lb PG
Well, in case Telfair implodes and Brown for one reason or another isn't there, having Collison there can possibly provide someone at point guard that at least knows how to play the game.
29. LA Lakers - Omri Casspi 6'8" 225 SF
A small forward with the potential to be something in the NBA, but nothing is for sure. The Lakers have enough talent that they can take some risks, and Casspi is one that could very well pay off.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Jeff Pendergraph 6'9" 230 lb PF
The Cavaliers are fairly old as far as their bigs go, and with a possible retirement from Zydrunas Ilgauskas coming in the not so distant future along with Ben Wallace's contract running out after the 2010 season, it wouldn't hurt to at least to try to find someone who could possibly come in, learn from those two while they're there, and then at least try to stand in for them until the Cavaliers get someone else.
At this point it's too early to call the second round. The second round mock draft will come along with the third and final mock draft. The next mock draft will be the post lottery draft, which is not likely to see any major changes from this mock draft outside of the first fourteen picks.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Chicago Bulls 2008/2009 Season in Review
The Chicago Bulls recently concluded their 2008/2009 season with a loss in game seven to the Boston Celtics in what was seen by many as the best first round series of all-time. This was a season that saw a series of ups and downs for this young Chicago Bulls team that not only was young in the sense of being led by a rookie point guard and having a young average, but also in the sense that their head coach was in his first year of coaching.
The season started on a high note with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks and former Bulls head coach Scott Skiles. However, that win was quickly overshadowed by an embarassing loss to the defending champion Boston Celtics. From there the Bulls went through a series of wins and losses, never having more than two in a row of either until they reached their annual circus road trip. They went into this trip at .500, which at the time was a good sign for the team. They managed to then go a respectible 3-4 on the road trip, about as good as they've ever done since the Jordan era.
It was back to alternating wins and losses until they reached late December where they went on a string that saw them lose 14 out of 18 games, lasting through January 12. It during this stretch that things seemed to bottom out for the Bulls. Despite showing some hope with a huge win at home over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers (on a night with -20 degree temperatures), things seemed to be falling apart. Vinny Del Negro held a press conference where he pretty much admitted that things were bad and promised some changes, and Jerry Reinsdorf also called the season a, "Disaster." Things were looking really bad.
The season then started to turn around in late January. Things looked to only get worse as the Bulls headed out on their second 7 game road trip of the season. It started off with a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a game that they really should have won. However, after that the Bulls went on their first 3 game winning streak in almost 2 years. They finished the road trip at 4-3, their first winning record on a road trip of 4 or more games since Michael Jordan was running the city.
From the point of their first win on that road trip they went 7-3 before the move was made that really changed the course of the season. The Bulls made a big deal, sending away Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Cedric Simmons for veteran center Brad Miller and veteran wing man John Salmons. After that they traded away Thabo Sefolosha, a player who could play anywhere from point guard to small forward, but was buried on the bench for a first round pick, and then followed that by trading team cancer Larry Hughes (who hadn't played in quite some time) to the New York Knicks for sharp shooting big man Tim Thomas and Jerome James (who hasn't played much in the last two years, but has a contract that is insured and expires in 2010).
From the point of that trade the Bulls took a short time to find their team chemistry. They lost 3 of their first 4 games with the new players in the lineup, but followed that up by finishing the season 15-8 to end the season at 41-41. This was good enough to earn them the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference where they would play against the defending champion Boston Celtics. However, good news came for the Bulls before the series would even start. Boston coach Doc Rivers said that Kevin Garnett would not be playing during the playoffs. Expectations for the Bulls went from getting swept to being able to steal a game or two.
During game 1 there was an intense battle. Neither team was ever able to gather a very significant lead throughout the game before the end of regulation. The game went into overtime where the Bulls would pull out a win behind an amazing performance from rookie point guard phenom Derrick Rose. Game two would be another nailbiter, but the Celtics would win in regulation after Ray Allen hit a miracle three point field goal. Going to Chicago the Bulls had an advantage though as they had taken home court away from the Celtics. However, the Celtics wasted no time in taking home court advantage back by blowing the Bulls out in game 3. Game 4 saw the Bulls win once again in overtime. After that it was another overtime game, this time a loss in game 5. Game 6 was looking very bad near the end. The Bulls were down by 8 with very little time on the clock. However, Brad Miller, who had been the victim of a controversial foul at the end of game 5 after Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo punched him in the face and escaped with only picking up a personal foul, led a comeback to force the game into overtime. From there the game went into 3 overtimes, and despite Ray Allen's 51 points, the Bulls prevailed, sending it to a game 7. Game 7 was close until the game started to wind down and the Celtics prevailed, ending the series.
The Bulls had gone from a horrible mess less than 2 months away from the end of the regular season to a legitimate .500 team, then to giving the defending world champions, despite not being with their team leader, to their limit in an epic first round series.
So, how did the Bulls really do during this season? In order to figure this out you have to look at the expectations before the season. The Bulls finished the previous season at 33-49 after going 49-33 the season before that. Things were not looking too good going into the draft lottery, as the Bulls had clearly looked bad during the season and were looking at probably getting the #9 pick in the draft where they could get a good player, but no one to really change the team (it turned out that during the draft Brook Lopez fell all the way down to the #10 spot, and would have likely been available to the Bulls, if they would've been smart enough to take him). However the Bulls lucked out and wound up with the #1 overall pick.
After some controversy over who the Bulls should pick, they went with Derrick Rose, the hometown kid with insane athleticism, good size, and a good head on his shoulder. However, Rose was seen as someone who would be a project. We were warned to not expect him to come right out and completely change things around.
Knowing that, most predictions had the Bulls winning anywhere from 36 to 40 games. However, that was assuming that Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng would both bounce back from underwhelming seasons and that young players Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah would show immediate improvement from the previous season after showing strong signs at the end of that season. None of that was to happen, but the Bulls still beat those expectations due to Derrick Rose coming right in and showing the league that there was a new star in the league. Rose came out and wowed everyone, winning rookie of the year honors.
The team's performance didn't really go far beyond expectations, but the good came from different areas than expected. However, there were other very good things that came forward, mainly that John Paxson, who had been reluctant to make any big moves after his signing of Ben Wallace turned out to be a bad move, went ahead and made another move, acquiring Brad Miller and John Salmons, a move that would prove to be vital to the Bulls down the stretch and into the postseason.
Looking at the whole picture, as a whole, the Bulls deserve a B-. Giving them a C would be them meeting expectations, and the Bulls not only beat regular season expectations, but also surpassed their expectations in the playoffs while also putting themselves in a good position for the future.
Here are individual player grades:
Luol Deng - D-: Deng was likely hurt for the majority of the year, as he still seemed to not be able to move very well at all. When he was in he was mostly ineffective outside of a few very good games.
Kirk Hinrich - C-: Hinrich's low numbers are also accompanied by a huge cut in minutes. He still provided constant tough defense when he was in. Missing time due to injury also hurt.
Ben Gordon - C+: Yes, he was the team's leading scorer, but he also turned the ball over at a high percentage and would over-dribble the ball, leading to a turnover or a bad shot for him or a teammate, several times every game, never seeming to learn from his mistakes, rather just wanting to get his stats up. While his shooting numbers really raise him above expectations, his selfish play and lack of defensive ability still held him back from being as good as he could be.
Andres Nocioni - C: Put up slightly below average offensive numbers for himself, but was always playing hard. Really was able to keep the Bulls in several games with his great defense and even sometimes with his offense.
Drew Gooden - B-: Put up scoring numbers a little bit above what most Bulls fans expected, and really at times looked like the second best player on the team, as he was a great option on the pick & roll. His groin injury did cost him before he was traded.
Lindsey Hunter - C: He gets a better grade when you consider almost nothing was expected of him, and he really didn't bring much outside of occasional tough defense when on the floor. However, he did help out very much with his great mentoring of Derrick Rose throughout the season.
Thabo Sefolosha - C-: Still just couldn't break out. He's a kid that really is on the cusp of being a very good player, but he just never was able to do that on the Bulls, and that's why they traded him, as he became buried in the rotation.
Tyrus Thomas - B: Thomas started very slowly and with big time inconsistency. He was taking too many jump shots and missing almost all of them. Around the middle of the season he started to drive to the basket more, didn't settle for jumpers, and really turned his game around. Within a month he had backed off that style, but by that point his jumper had improved to the point of where it didn't hurt the team as much. His game made big strides over the course of the season, but he still has a long way to go.
Joakim Noah - B: Joakim also started very slowly, but he also improved as the year went on, and by the middle of the year was a very good rebounding and shot blocking presence down low. He brought some great energy throughout the season and was an emotional leader on the team.
Linton Johnson III - C: Nobody expected much out of him, and we didn't get much out of him. He did as expected, although an inc would also be an acceptable grade.
Aaron Gray - C-: There were some slightly higher expectations for Gray after he'd shown the ability to almost get 20 points and 20 rebounds in a game near the end of the season (although nobody expected him to be able to do it on a regular basis), but many Bulls fans thought he could give 6-8 points and 4-6 rebounds off the bench, and he did come close on the rebounds, but not close as far as the points go.
Anthony Roberson - C: Got his little bit here and there in garbage minutes, another case of someone without expectations pretty much doing as expected.
Demetris Nichols - Inc: As good as it is to see every little detail graded, 5 minutes out of the season isn't enough to grade.
Jerome James - Inc: Nice for financial reasons (contract expires after 2010 season and his remaining contract is insured), but didn't play a minute for the Bulls.
Cedric Simmons - C+: Expected nothing at all out of him, but at times actually didn't look bad at all, but during garbage minutes, he gets extra points for being involved in that trade though.
Larry Hughes - F+: Gets points for actually looking decent for a short time during the season, but in the end his selfish play and horrible attitude both on and off the court made him more of a pain to deal with than he was good for the team. If he could've kept his mouth shut and played his role without shooting too much then he could've at least got a C, but the guy was just a huge pain.
Tim Thomas - C+: Missed some time due to injury, but when he was able to play he did a good job, really spreading the floor and hitting some long distance jumpers regularly.
Brad Miller - B: Brought toughness down low on the defensive end as well as giving the Bulls a pick & roll option every bit as good as Gooden on the offensive end with a couple of post moves as well. A very crafty and smart veteran that gets the most out of all of his physical abilities.
John Salmons - B+: When he came in it was said that he was just having a good season because of the poor team he played on. In actuality he didn't miss a beat when he came to the Bulls, providing great offense, and it all came in the flow of the game. Without him the Bulls are not even in the playoffs. A very good pick for both offense and defense.
Derrick Rose - A: A pretty easy grade, as he clearly wasn't as near perfect as he would have to be to get an A+, but he was very easily an A, keeping him away from A-. Rose went above and beyond all (believed to be) reasonable expectations. Words cannot describe what he brought to this team.
So, there's the player grades, and the team as a whole gets a B- for beating expectations both in the regular season and the playoffs. As a whole this was a very exciting and interesting season. There was always something going on with this Bulls team, and it was a season that was never dull. The Bulls have done a great job in setting themselves up for future success, and next season should be another very exciting season.
The season started on a high note with a win over the Milwaukee Bucks and former Bulls head coach Scott Skiles. However, that win was quickly overshadowed by an embarassing loss to the defending champion Boston Celtics. From there the Bulls went through a series of wins and losses, never having more than two in a row of either until they reached their annual circus road trip. They went into this trip at .500, which at the time was a good sign for the team. They managed to then go a respectible 3-4 on the road trip, about as good as they've ever done since the Jordan era.
It was back to alternating wins and losses until they reached late December where they went on a string that saw them lose 14 out of 18 games, lasting through January 12. It during this stretch that things seemed to bottom out for the Bulls. Despite showing some hope with a huge win at home over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers (on a night with -20 degree temperatures), things seemed to be falling apart. Vinny Del Negro held a press conference where he pretty much admitted that things were bad and promised some changes, and Jerry Reinsdorf also called the season a, "Disaster." Things were looking really bad.
The season then started to turn around in late January. Things looked to only get worse as the Bulls headed out on their second 7 game road trip of the season. It started off with a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in a game that they really should have won. However, after that the Bulls went on their first 3 game winning streak in almost 2 years. They finished the road trip at 4-3, their first winning record on a road trip of 4 or more games since Michael Jordan was running the city.
From the point of their first win on that road trip they went 7-3 before the move was made that really changed the course of the season. The Bulls made a big deal, sending away Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, and Cedric Simmons for veteran center Brad Miller and veteran wing man John Salmons. After that they traded away Thabo Sefolosha, a player who could play anywhere from point guard to small forward, but was buried on the bench for a first round pick, and then followed that by trading team cancer Larry Hughes (who hadn't played in quite some time) to the New York Knicks for sharp shooting big man Tim Thomas and Jerome James (who hasn't played much in the last two years, but has a contract that is insured and expires in 2010).
From the point of that trade the Bulls took a short time to find their team chemistry. They lost 3 of their first 4 games with the new players in the lineup, but followed that up by finishing the season 15-8 to end the season at 41-41. This was good enough to earn them the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference where they would play against the defending champion Boston Celtics. However, good news came for the Bulls before the series would even start. Boston coach Doc Rivers said that Kevin Garnett would not be playing during the playoffs. Expectations for the Bulls went from getting swept to being able to steal a game or two.
During game 1 there was an intense battle. Neither team was ever able to gather a very significant lead throughout the game before the end of regulation. The game went into overtime where the Bulls would pull out a win behind an amazing performance from rookie point guard phenom Derrick Rose. Game two would be another nailbiter, but the Celtics would win in regulation after Ray Allen hit a miracle three point field goal. Going to Chicago the Bulls had an advantage though as they had taken home court away from the Celtics. However, the Celtics wasted no time in taking home court advantage back by blowing the Bulls out in game 3. Game 4 saw the Bulls win once again in overtime. After that it was another overtime game, this time a loss in game 5. Game 6 was looking very bad near the end. The Bulls were down by 8 with very little time on the clock. However, Brad Miller, who had been the victim of a controversial foul at the end of game 5 after Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo punched him in the face and escaped with only picking up a personal foul, led a comeback to force the game into overtime. From there the game went into 3 overtimes, and despite Ray Allen's 51 points, the Bulls prevailed, sending it to a game 7. Game 7 was close until the game started to wind down and the Celtics prevailed, ending the series.
The Bulls had gone from a horrible mess less than 2 months away from the end of the regular season to a legitimate .500 team, then to giving the defending world champions, despite not being with their team leader, to their limit in an epic first round series.
So, how did the Bulls really do during this season? In order to figure this out you have to look at the expectations before the season. The Bulls finished the previous season at 33-49 after going 49-33 the season before that. Things were not looking too good going into the draft lottery, as the Bulls had clearly looked bad during the season and were looking at probably getting the #9 pick in the draft where they could get a good player, but no one to really change the team (it turned out that during the draft Brook Lopez fell all the way down to the #10 spot, and would have likely been available to the Bulls, if they would've been smart enough to take him). However the Bulls lucked out and wound up with the #1 overall pick.
After some controversy over who the Bulls should pick, they went with Derrick Rose, the hometown kid with insane athleticism, good size, and a good head on his shoulder. However, Rose was seen as someone who would be a project. We were warned to not expect him to come right out and completely change things around.
Knowing that, most predictions had the Bulls winning anywhere from 36 to 40 games. However, that was assuming that Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng would both bounce back from underwhelming seasons and that young players Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah would show immediate improvement from the previous season after showing strong signs at the end of that season. None of that was to happen, but the Bulls still beat those expectations due to Derrick Rose coming right in and showing the league that there was a new star in the league. Rose came out and wowed everyone, winning rookie of the year honors.
The team's performance didn't really go far beyond expectations, but the good came from different areas than expected. However, there were other very good things that came forward, mainly that John Paxson, who had been reluctant to make any big moves after his signing of Ben Wallace turned out to be a bad move, went ahead and made another move, acquiring Brad Miller and John Salmons, a move that would prove to be vital to the Bulls down the stretch and into the postseason.
Looking at the whole picture, as a whole, the Bulls deserve a B-. Giving them a C would be them meeting expectations, and the Bulls not only beat regular season expectations, but also surpassed their expectations in the playoffs while also putting themselves in a good position for the future.
Here are individual player grades:
Luol Deng - D-: Deng was likely hurt for the majority of the year, as he still seemed to not be able to move very well at all. When he was in he was mostly ineffective outside of a few very good games.
Kirk Hinrich - C-: Hinrich's low numbers are also accompanied by a huge cut in minutes. He still provided constant tough defense when he was in. Missing time due to injury also hurt.
Ben Gordon - C+: Yes, he was the team's leading scorer, but he also turned the ball over at a high percentage and would over-dribble the ball, leading to a turnover or a bad shot for him or a teammate, several times every game, never seeming to learn from his mistakes, rather just wanting to get his stats up. While his shooting numbers really raise him above expectations, his selfish play and lack of defensive ability still held him back from being as good as he could be.
Andres Nocioni - C: Put up slightly below average offensive numbers for himself, but was always playing hard. Really was able to keep the Bulls in several games with his great defense and even sometimes with his offense.
Drew Gooden - B-: Put up scoring numbers a little bit above what most Bulls fans expected, and really at times looked like the second best player on the team, as he was a great option on the pick & roll. His groin injury did cost him before he was traded.
Lindsey Hunter - C: He gets a better grade when you consider almost nothing was expected of him, and he really didn't bring much outside of occasional tough defense when on the floor. However, he did help out very much with his great mentoring of Derrick Rose throughout the season.
Thabo Sefolosha - C-: Still just couldn't break out. He's a kid that really is on the cusp of being a very good player, but he just never was able to do that on the Bulls, and that's why they traded him, as he became buried in the rotation.
Tyrus Thomas - B: Thomas started very slowly and with big time inconsistency. He was taking too many jump shots and missing almost all of them. Around the middle of the season he started to drive to the basket more, didn't settle for jumpers, and really turned his game around. Within a month he had backed off that style, but by that point his jumper had improved to the point of where it didn't hurt the team as much. His game made big strides over the course of the season, but he still has a long way to go.
Joakim Noah - B: Joakim also started very slowly, but he also improved as the year went on, and by the middle of the year was a very good rebounding and shot blocking presence down low. He brought some great energy throughout the season and was an emotional leader on the team.
Linton Johnson III - C: Nobody expected much out of him, and we didn't get much out of him. He did as expected, although an inc would also be an acceptable grade.
Aaron Gray - C-: There were some slightly higher expectations for Gray after he'd shown the ability to almost get 20 points and 20 rebounds in a game near the end of the season (although nobody expected him to be able to do it on a regular basis), but many Bulls fans thought he could give 6-8 points and 4-6 rebounds off the bench, and he did come close on the rebounds, but not close as far as the points go.
Anthony Roberson - C: Got his little bit here and there in garbage minutes, another case of someone without expectations pretty much doing as expected.
Demetris Nichols - Inc: As good as it is to see every little detail graded, 5 minutes out of the season isn't enough to grade.
Jerome James - Inc: Nice for financial reasons (contract expires after 2010 season and his remaining contract is insured), but didn't play a minute for the Bulls.
Cedric Simmons - C+: Expected nothing at all out of him, but at times actually didn't look bad at all, but during garbage minutes, he gets extra points for being involved in that trade though.
Larry Hughes - F+: Gets points for actually looking decent for a short time during the season, but in the end his selfish play and horrible attitude both on and off the court made him more of a pain to deal with than he was good for the team. If he could've kept his mouth shut and played his role without shooting too much then he could've at least got a C, but the guy was just a huge pain.
Tim Thomas - C+: Missed some time due to injury, but when he was able to play he did a good job, really spreading the floor and hitting some long distance jumpers regularly.
Brad Miller - B: Brought toughness down low on the defensive end as well as giving the Bulls a pick & roll option every bit as good as Gooden on the offensive end with a couple of post moves as well. A very crafty and smart veteran that gets the most out of all of his physical abilities.
John Salmons - B+: When he came in it was said that he was just having a good season because of the poor team he played on. In actuality he didn't miss a beat when he came to the Bulls, providing great offense, and it all came in the flow of the game. Without him the Bulls are not even in the playoffs. A very good pick for both offense and defense.
Derrick Rose - A: A pretty easy grade, as he clearly wasn't as near perfect as he would have to be to get an A+, but he was very easily an A, keeping him away from A-. Rose went above and beyond all (believed to be) reasonable expectations. Words cannot describe what he brought to this team.
So, there's the player grades, and the team as a whole gets a B- for beating expectations both in the regular season and the playoffs. As a whole this was a very exciting and interesting season. There was always something going on with this Bulls team, and it was a season that was never dull. The Bulls have done a great job in setting themselves up for future success, and next season should be another very exciting season.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
1 Week Later, Bears Draft Analysis
Most people like to do an analysis of the NFL Draft right after it happens. On the other hand, this is going to be after a week of really getting to think about what the Bears did and having a more thought out analysis rather than one at the spur of the moment. This will cut down on the emotions talking and allow the actual brain to start to do the talking.
So, we'll start with a player by player analysis, starting with the top....the third round. The 1-10 scale being used will take into consideration the abilities of the player drafted, the past success of the player drafted, and where the player was actually drafted. 10 is an enormous steal, 9 is a big steal, 8 is an excellent pick, 7 is a good pick, 6 is a solid pick, 5 is a decent pick, 4 is a bit of a confusing pick, 3 is a poor pick, 2 is a bad pick, and 1 is a horrible pick.
Jarron Gilbert, the defensive tackle from San Jose State was the first selection of the Bears. At pick #68 they could not have done much better. What position he'll play for the Bears is also up in the air. He could play either tackle or end, as he played both in college, and has the ability to play either one in the NFL very well. He has good size at 288 lbs. and has the speed with a 4.87 in the 40-yard dash. We have to remember though that just because he could jump out of a swimming pool, it doesn't mean he's destined for greatness, as at the time he was supposedly trying to match a feat he heard Adam Archuleta had done, and we all know how Archuleta was with the Bears. However, Gilbert does have the natural tools to become a very good defensive lineman, no matter where they decide to line him up. He has the overall athletic ability and size, and if he proves he has the head for it he could potentially even wind up in the Pro Bowl somewhere down the road. However, it's probably wise to take things one step at a time and say that he should be on the roster at the start of the season. A very good pick here, this is an 8, although it's very tempting to give it a 9. There is no reason Gilbert should have fallen this far.
Juaquin Iglesias at #99 is someone else that probably fell a little bit too far. Iglesias has good speed and good fundamental abilities. His real advantage is his fearlessness. The guy is someone who will not be afraid to go up the middle and make the catch, knowing that he's about to get bowled over by a linebacker at full speed. He has strong hands and can make an excellent receiver on short to middle range third down plays. He's not going to be someone to average huge yards per catch, but he can make the eventual big play as well. With someone like Jay Cutler throwing the ball to him, he could really wind up performing above expectations. However, summarizing, solid physical abilities and fundamentals, but fearless down the middle and should be great for short to middle yardage third down plays and just getting some solid yardage at any other time. Given the needs on this team (especially when you consider that Hester is not likely to be a receiver that you'll ever be comfortable sending down the middle), this pick gets a 9.
Henry Melton was picked with the #105 pick overall. At this point you're likely going to get someone who can make the roster as a solid reserve, but sometimes will get a guy who can be a regular starter, and on rare occasion you get a superstar. It's really hard to say what the Bears wound up with when they picked Melton. Melton really has many positions he can play on the field. On the defensive line he could play at either end. He could also be a linebacker due to his speed and athleticism. However, it's the fact that he was recruited out of high school as a running back that really is interesting. The Bears could throw him in the backfield as a Brandon Jacobs type of compliment to Matt Forte (who isn't small himself), or even have him as a fullback. However, he supposedly has a lot of talent at the defensive end position, and you don't want to lost him at that spot just to have him somewhere else where he may not be as effective. The big thing here is that we're wondering where we don't want to take him away from, which is a very good sign. Will he even really be anything though? He's another guy who has the athletic ability, but it's all a matter of what's in his head that will matter. This pick gets a high 7.
DJ Moore, at #119 is the first pick that didn't actually really seem exciting. It isn't that he isn't expected to be an NFL quality player, but that it was almost a boring pick. The Bears addressed a glaring weakness with one of their earlier picks, and with the other two they brought in they had two athletic freaks from the defensive line, one of them possibly being able to play other positions. DJ Moore is a completely different story. For a cornerback Moore isn't especially fast, although he's not notably slow either. However, he's also very undersized at 5'9". Now, to be fair, Nathan Vasher is not very large either and he had a 10 interception season just a few years ago. However, what he does have is great instinct and a great nose for the ball. Chances are that he won't be starting right away, but he could be putting in minutes at backup very quickly. It's a very solid pick, nothing surprising or mysterious, and it's someone with a good head on their shoulders, the only questions being size and speed (athletic ability as a whole isn't a worry since he has a vertical jump of almost 40 inches). With this pick the Bears get a 7.
Johnny Knox could potentially be a huge steal for the Bears at pick #140. This kid is as fast as anyone in the draft, running the 40 in 4.34 seconds. The two things that caused him to fall this far in the draft were is ability to run routes, which is very raw, and the fact that he put up his big numbers in college at a very small school (Abilene Christian). His size is nothing special at 6' 185 lbs. His speed more than makes up for that though. He could be an immediate deep threat for Jay Cutler. With a quarterback like Cutler who has great arm strength and accuracy you can really be patient while he learns how to better run patterns and just send him on simple deep routes for the most part early on. This is a pick that deserves an 8.
Marcus Freeman, the linebacker from Ohio State was taken with the 154th pick. What the Bears get here is a linebacker who really did not live up to expectations when he was in college, although he really did play pretty well. However, numerous reports say that he is someone who could thrive in the system that the Bears run on defense. It's tough to say how to take this, as you love having someone who could thrive in your system, but you worry since he needs that right system to really thrive. For now it looks like he could wind up as a backup linebacker, possibly starting by the end of the season as an outside linebacker. This isn't someone who has Pro Bowl written on them, rather someone who can come in and give some strong starts for quite a while. This pick gets a 6.
Al Afalava was taken with the 190th overall pick. A safety with size is someone that the Bears may be looking to boost their special teams with. While he was solid in college as a safety he was a good safety who really improved on his coverage as time went on, but he seems like he is someone made for special teams in the NFL. He was an excellent special teams player in college, and there's little doubt that his special teams abilities can translate to the NFL. This pick is a 7.
Lance Louis at pick 246 is where the Bears get interesting again. Louis is plenty large to play the offensive line at over 300 lbs. However, it's his speed that really has people interested in him. He ran a 4.76 and 4.8 in the 40, which for a man his size is outstanding. He was brought in as a tight end, but has the size to play guard or tackle. However, his ability to play tight end may wind up making him someone the Bears can also use for trick plays, and some would even suggest that the Bears use him as a fullback due to that speed mentioned earlier. At this point you don't know if they're going to make the roster or not, but the Bears picked someone who's a bit of a project here with some very high upside. Due to his upside this pick gets an 8.
Derek Kinder at 251 was the final pick for the Bears, but clearly not their worst pick. At 251 the Bears were able to find a third wide receiver who could very well make the team. Kinder has good speed, good athleticism, good hands, and a good brain in his head. Kinder doesn't seem to have any one skill that blows you away, but he's good in just about every aspect. His numbers were poor last season in Pittsburgh, but when you look at the style of offense they ran, which focused on the run, the coach he had in Dave Wannstedt, and a quarterback who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (sorry for the cliche), it's a bit understandable. The one thing that is a legitimate worry about him though is his injury history. He had a pretty nasty injury with a torn ACL in 2007, and it's believed that the injury also took part for some of his poor numbers in 2008, so he is going to be an injury worry, at least until he's able to prove otherwise. Kinder really does have the skills and all the natural abilities to be a solid receiver on this team. This pick gets a high 8 mainly due to the possible upside brought all the way down at pick #251.
This was a draft that really didn't bring a whole lot of interest going in. The Bears didn't even wind up having a pick on the first day, so really, why should we care too much? Well, when you look at the draft history of the Bears with Jerry Angelo running things, they really are not the best at making picks in the first round. Greg Olsen and Tommie Harris are easily their best first round picks since Angelo took over, and there's a lot of guys that just never panned out surrounded by players who are now very good. Sure, an occasional back pick is expected, but for some reason the Bears just haven't been able to get more than a couple of good first round picks with plenty of tries. However, past the first round Angelo has been quite good, in 2008 he took Matt Forte in the second round, Earl Bennett (who the Bears are very high on despite using very little last season) in the third round, Craig Steltz in the fourth round (yeah, he was at the bad end of a major highlight last season, but he also played very well for the most part), Kellen Davis in the fifth round, and Joey LaRocque (who at least made the team) in the seventh round. In other past years some picks past the first round also include Garrett Wolfe, Kevin Payne, Trumaine McBride, Danieal Manning, Devin Hester, Dusty Dvoracek, Mark Anderson, Kyle Orton, Chris Harris, Tank Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Todd Johnson, Terrence Metcalf, Alex Brown, Adrian Peterson, and Anthony Thomas. Sure, it's not a perfect list, but it proves the point that the Bears draft better after the first round.
What the Bears did with these picks is the important part. There isn't a single player drafted that doesn't have a solid to good chance to be on the roster at the start of the season. They got a lot of guys with great physical talent. Any one of these guys could wind up being a very good player in the future for the Bears. Some have Pro Bowl potential, and some have potential to be solid starters, but there is a ton of upside when you consider what they had to work with.
The Bears also seemed to make a statement for the future, especially on defense, that they would like to become more of a fast team. Especially with the picks of Gilbert and Melton the Bears went for fast players. Playing with more speed on defense would be a great idea for this team, as they were really burned in every way this past season, but by the air they were really looking weak this past season, and with a faster defense, even at the defensive line, they really can cut down on the passing attack of the teams they go against. By getting two guys who could make good pass rushing defensive ends, they really addressed that problem. However, also getting a corner to add depth to the secondary and possibly come in and play if either Vasher or Tillman get hurt or just don't perform well is something else that will really help out their pass defense. Afalava is also a defensive back who, yes, was likely drafted for special teams reasons, but he can also come in and add good pass coverage from the safety position as well as lay someone out due to his good size.
This was a very good draft for the Bears, especially when you consider the picks they had to work with. They picked some very good candidates to fill some glaring needs for the team. This is a draft where you really can see the Bears helping themselves out despite not having a pick before the third round.
So, we'll start with a player by player analysis, starting with the top....the third round. The 1-10 scale being used will take into consideration the abilities of the player drafted, the past success of the player drafted, and where the player was actually drafted. 10 is an enormous steal, 9 is a big steal, 8 is an excellent pick, 7 is a good pick, 6 is a solid pick, 5 is a decent pick, 4 is a bit of a confusing pick, 3 is a poor pick, 2 is a bad pick, and 1 is a horrible pick.
Jarron Gilbert, the defensive tackle from San Jose State was the first selection of the Bears. At pick #68 they could not have done much better. What position he'll play for the Bears is also up in the air. He could play either tackle or end, as he played both in college, and has the ability to play either one in the NFL very well. He has good size at 288 lbs. and has the speed with a 4.87 in the 40-yard dash. We have to remember though that just because he could jump out of a swimming pool, it doesn't mean he's destined for greatness, as at the time he was supposedly trying to match a feat he heard Adam Archuleta had done, and we all know how Archuleta was with the Bears. However, Gilbert does have the natural tools to become a very good defensive lineman, no matter where they decide to line him up. He has the overall athletic ability and size, and if he proves he has the head for it he could potentially even wind up in the Pro Bowl somewhere down the road. However, it's probably wise to take things one step at a time and say that he should be on the roster at the start of the season. A very good pick here, this is an 8, although it's very tempting to give it a 9. There is no reason Gilbert should have fallen this far.
Juaquin Iglesias at #99 is someone else that probably fell a little bit too far. Iglesias has good speed and good fundamental abilities. His real advantage is his fearlessness. The guy is someone who will not be afraid to go up the middle and make the catch, knowing that he's about to get bowled over by a linebacker at full speed. He has strong hands and can make an excellent receiver on short to middle range third down plays. He's not going to be someone to average huge yards per catch, but he can make the eventual big play as well. With someone like Jay Cutler throwing the ball to him, he could really wind up performing above expectations. However, summarizing, solid physical abilities and fundamentals, but fearless down the middle and should be great for short to middle yardage third down plays and just getting some solid yardage at any other time. Given the needs on this team (especially when you consider that Hester is not likely to be a receiver that you'll ever be comfortable sending down the middle), this pick gets a 9.
Henry Melton was picked with the #105 pick overall. At this point you're likely going to get someone who can make the roster as a solid reserve, but sometimes will get a guy who can be a regular starter, and on rare occasion you get a superstar. It's really hard to say what the Bears wound up with when they picked Melton. Melton really has many positions he can play on the field. On the defensive line he could play at either end. He could also be a linebacker due to his speed and athleticism. However, it's the fact that he was recruited out of high school as a running back that really is interesting. The Bears could throw him in the backfield as a Brandon Jacobs type of compliment to Matt Forte (who isn't small himself), or even have him as a fullback. However, he supposedly has a lot of talent at the defensive end position, and you don't want to lost him at that spot just to have him somewhere else where he may not be as effective. The big thing here is that we're wondering where we don't want to take him away from, which is a very good sign. Will he even really be anything though? He's another guy who has the athletic ability, but it's all a matter of what's in his head that will matter. This pick gets a high 7.
DJ Moore, at #119 is the first pick that didn't actually really seem exciting. It isn't that he isn't expected to be an NFL quality player, but that it was almost a boring pick. The Bears addressed a glaring weakness with one of their earlier picks, and with the other two they brought in they had two athletic freaks from the defensive line, one of them possibly being able to play other positions. DJ Moore is a completely different story. For a cornerback Moore isn't especially fast, although he's not notably slow either. However, he's also very undersized at 5'9". Now, to be fair, Nathan Vasher is not very large either and he had a 10 interception season just a few years ago. However, what he does have is great instinct and a great nose for the ball. Chances are that he won't be starting right away, but he could be putting in minutes at backup very quickly. It's a very solid pick, nothing surprising or mysterious, and it's someone with a good head on their shoulders, the only questions being size and speed (athletic ability as a whole isn't a worry since he has a vertical jump of almost 40 inches). With this pick the Bears get a 7.
Johnny Knox could potentially be a huge steal for the Bears at pick #140. This kid is as fast as anyone in the draft, running the 40 in 4.34 seconds. The two things that caused him to fall this far in the draft were is ability to run routes, which is very raw, and the fact that he put up his big numbers in college at a very small school (Abilene Christian). His size is nothing special at 6' 185 lbs. His speed more than makes up for that though. He could be an immediate deep threat for Jay Cutler. With a quarterback like Cutler who has great arm strength and accuracy you can really be patient while he learns how to better run patterns and just send him on simple deep routes for the most part early on. This is a pick that deserves an 8.
Marcus Freeman, the linebacker from Ohio State was taken with the 154th pick. What the Bears get here is a linebacker who really did not live up to expectations when he was in college, although he really did play pretty well. However, numerous reports say that he is someone who could thrive in the system that the Bears run on defense. It's tough to say how to take this, as you love having someone who could thrive in your system, but you worry since he needs that right system to really thrive. For now it looks like he could wind up as a backup linebacker, possibly starting by the end of the season as an outside linebacker. This isn't someone who has Pro Bowl written on them, rather someone who can come in and give some strong starts for quite a while. This pick gets a 6.
Al Afalava was taken with the 190th overall pick. A safety with size is someone that the Bears may be looking to boost their special teams with. While he was solid in college as a safety he was a good safety who really improved on his coverage as time went on, but he seems like he is someone made for special teams in the NFL. He was an excellent special teams player in college, and there's little doubt that his special teams abilities can translate to the NFL. This pick is a 7.
Lance Louis at pick 246 is where the Bears get interesting again. Louis is plenty large to play the offensive line at over 300 lbs. However, it's his speed that really has people interested in him. He ran a 4.76 and 4.8 in the 40, which for a man his size is outstanding. He was brought in as a tight end, but has the size to play guard or tackle. However, his ability to play tight end may wind up making him someone the Bears can also use for trick plays, and some would even suggest that the Bears use him as a fullback due to that speed mentioned earlier. At this point you don't know if they're going to make the roster or not, but the Bears picked someone who's a bit of a project here with some very high upside. Due to his upside this pick gets an 8.
Derek Kinder at 251 was the final pick for the Bears, but clearly not their worst pick. At 251 the Bears were able to find a third wide receiver who could very well make the team. Kinder has good speed, good athleticism, good hands, and a good brain in his head. Kinder doesn't seem to have any one skill that blows you away, but he's good in just about every aspect. His numbers were poor last season in Pittsburgh, but when you look at the style of offense they ran, which focused on the run, the coach he had in Dave Wannstedt, and a quarterback who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (sorry for the cliche), it's a bit understandable. The one thing that is a legitimate worry about him though is his injury history. He had a pretty nasty injury with a torn ACL in 2007, and it's believed that the injury also took part for some of his poor numbers in 2008, so he is going to be an injury worry, at least until he's able to prove otherwise. Kinder really does have the skills and all the natural abilities to be a solid receiver on this team. This pick gets a high 8 mainly due to the possible upside brought all the way down at pick #251.
This was a draft that really didn't bring a whole lot of interest going in. The Bears didn't even wind up having a pick on the first day, so really, why should we care too much? Well, when you look at the draft history of the Bears with Jerry Angelo running things, they really are not the best at making picks in the first round. Greg Olsen and Tommie Harris are easily their best first round picks since Angelo took over, and there's a lot of guys that just never panned out surrounded by players who are now very good. Sure, an occasional back pick is expected, but for some reason the Bears just haven't been able to get more than a couple of good first round picks with plenty of tries. However, past the first round Angelo has been quite good, in 2008 he took Matt Forte in the second round, Earl Bennett (who the Bears are very high on despite using very little last season) in the third round, Craig Steltz in the fourth round (yeah, he was at the bad end of a major highlight last season, but he also played very well for the most part), Kellen Davis in the fifth round, and Joey LaRocque (who at least made the team) in the seventh round. In other past years some picks past the first round also include Garrett Wolfe, Kevin Payne, Trumaine McBride, Danieal Manning, Devin Hester, Dusty Dvoracek, Mark Anderson, Kyle Orton, Chris Harris, Tank Johnson, Bernard Berrian, Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, Todd Johnson, Terrence Metcalf, Alex Brown, Adrian Peterson, and Anthony Thomas. Sure, it's not a perfect list, but it proves the point that the Bears draft better after the first round.
What the Bears did with these picks is the important part. There isn't a single player drafted that doesn't have a solid to good chance to be on the roster at the start of the season. They got a lot of guys with great physical talent. Any one of these guys could wind up being a very good player in the future for the Bears. Some have Pro Bowl potential, and some have potential to be solid starters, but there is a ton of upside when you consider what they had to work with.
The Bears also seemed to make a statement for the future, especially on defense, that they would like to become more of a fast team. Especially with the picks of Gilbert and Melton the Bears went for fast players. Playing with more speed on defense would be a great idea for this team, as they were really burned in every way this past season, but by the air they were really looking weak this past season, and with a faster defense, even at the defensive line, they really can cut down on the passing attack of the teams they go against. By getting two guys who could make good pass rushing defensive ends, they really addressed that problem. However, also getting a corner to add depth to the secondary and possibly come in and play if either Vasher or Tillman get hurt or just don't perform well is something else that will really help out their pass defense. Afalava is also a defensive back who, yes, was likely drafted for special teams reasons, but he can also come in and add good pass coverage from the safety position as well as lay someone out due to his good size.
This was a very good draft for the Bears, especially when you consider the picks they had to work with. They picked some very good candidates to fill some glaring needs for the team. This is a draft where you really can see the Bears helping themselves out despite not having a pick before the third round.
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