As everyone should have known, the first two rounds of the MLB draft are (since it's not over yet) taking place right now. Both the Cubs and White Sox have made their picks, and since there is no Jeff Samardzija trade in yet, I'm coming to the conclusion that day 1 is over for both teams (I'm kidding on the Jeff Samardzija part, that's been all but proven to be nothing more than a joke that a nameless source just made up). Anyway, going in order, here are my thoughts on the picks.
White Sox 1st Round #3 - Carlos Rodon - LHP
Rick Hahn gets major Ted Thompson points here. He will get a ton of credit for this draft choice, even if it was the obvious pick at this point. I was shocked when the Marlins went for Kolek over Rodon with the #2 pick. While Kolek does have the higher upside, Rodon still has a very high upside and is much more safe as well. If you add the two together, the odds favor Rodon. Rodon is still a bit of a thrower rather than a pitcher, but any system with any sense will have guys that can help guys like Rodon make that transition. Meanwhile Kolek is a pure thrower at this point. Sure, he has an amazing arm as far as velocity goes, but he has little movement or control on his pitches. Rodon has a good chance at being a 1-3 type of starter while Kolek has more of a solid chance of being a 1-2 type of guy. If he doesn't fall in there he could wind up being a very good closer, but I've always felt that closers are a bit overrated.
Anyway, while this pick was obvious, this was a very good pick for the White Sox. Not only does Rodon have a high upside, he's also someone who can work his way up quickly and wind up being a top of the rotation type of starter (I'm assuming a #2 guy with Sale there) within 2-3 years, closer to 2 years. The White Sox got a great pick here, and their fans should rejoice. This pick alone will put the White Sox in the top 20 as far as minor league systems go, despite all of the guys from before this season joining the big league club. The White Sox got an absolute steal here, and they will reap the benefits soon.
Cubs 1st Round #4 - Kyle Schwarber - OF/C
Schwarber doesn't likely have the glove to stick at catcher, but the Cubs really do feel that he will be able to stick in left field. I had to double check to make sure that I didn't get him mixed up with Michael Conforto at first, but sure enough, Schwarber actually isn't a mess in the field. It's just unsure as to how good he'll be there. However, the reports are very mixed on his athleticism. Supposedly he's very athletic for a guy his size and is more of a Will Sutton type of case where a lot of scouts just saw him play at too high of a weight and didn't get to see his true athletic ability.
Either way, this was a pick that was very Kyle Fullerish to me. At first I was very curious and down on the pick. However, much like the Bears front office, I have plenty of reason to trust the Cubs front office when it comes to draft picks. Sure, signing him under slot probably played in to some extent. However, almost every report I have read say that he was the top bat in this draft. He played against good competition and put up a very high batting average with a lot of home runs. Sure, he didn't put up 30+ like Bryant did, but Bryant is an absolute freak when it comes to power. With Schwarbernegger it's still very likely that his power transitions well to the big leagues. I didn't mention him because I didn't think he'd be a possibility, but maybe I should learn my lesson when I do my mocks, even if they are only partial mocks. I just plain flat out didn't know enough about him. The biggest thing that hits me, and it makes it so much more obvious to me why this was an Epstein/Hoyer pick is that he does have a bit of a swing and miss tendency, but he still walked more than struck out in all three of his college seasons. Supposedly his level swing, according to this source will help him to hit for good average as well.
A lot of people are upset about the Cubs not drafting a pitcher here, but to be honest, the one thing that has worked for the Cubs the past few years has been their ability to get pitching. Taking pitching in the first round is indeed more risky than taking position players. There is such a higher risk of injury and bust with pitchers than there is with position players. The method that the Cubs front office seems to be clearly going with is building up a plethora of hitters, and going after pitching by signing value guys (they've done very well with that so far with Maholm, Feldman, and now Hammel), and then flipping those guys for pitching. However, at some point the young bats are going to be more than room that they have on the roster (and it may not be in too long), so those bats may be flipped for pitchers who have gotten past the first or second threshold for that pitching risk. Even now there are guys like Dylan Bundy and Paul Grey who are being talked about as possible returns for Jeff Samardzija, a 29 year old pitcher. Just keep this in mind.
White Sox 2nd Round #3 - Spencer Adams - RHP
The White Sox got excellent prospects with both right and left arms in this draft. Adams is a tall, skinny right handed pitcher. He has a fastball that goes from low to mid 90's. He's got a slider that isn't as sharp as you'd like, but it's still not bad. He throws a change and curve, but both still need some time to become good pitches. Either way, he can project to be a very good pitcher. If I just stood up and said that he would wind up being at least a #4 starter, you would be a fool to bet against me. That's how well he projects, as he could wind up being more of a #2 type of guy (a la Matt Garza before this season, or pretty much any pitcher with an FIP around 3.5 or better). I don't see him as an ace type of guy, but I can see him being a very good pitcher, although there is some bust potential there as well. Still, I think the White Sox made a very good pick here, and although they went against the grain by drafting need over BPA in day 1, they still made out very well.
Cubs 2nd Round #4 - Jake Stinnett - RHP
I heard this pick, and once again I was caught off guard. I'm no scout or anything like that, but I had heard Stinnett as a position player. Well, I wasn't off. He was actually previously drafted by the Pirates as a position player. Somewhere last season he was converted into a pitcher, and he hasn't turned back since then. He was excellent this past season as a pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball with good movement and a variety of pitches. He's got good size to be a good pitcher in the long run at 6'4" and 205 lbs. He was actually considered to be a top type of pick going into this season, but he faded late, however this was likely due to there being some conversion lag, which has always happened, just look at Jeff Samardzija's early season numbers against his late season numbers these past couple of years, even for strict pitchers it happens. He just needs to be stretched out in the minors. Either way, it's hard to project him, so I'll say he's anywhere from a true ace to a bust. A lot of the few issues that he did have this past season seemed to be things you can hang on him learning the position. One good report I read is here, hopefully that serves as a good source.
Looking at the picks for both teams, the upside between both teams is through the roof. Rodon's rough season this past year does bring a bit of doubt for the White Sox, but he was able to get everything back well enough that he was fine by the end of his season, enough that he was an obvious pick. Schwarber wasn't as obvious of a pick, but he carries an equal amount of upside with his bat that can wind up being one of those good power bats that can carry a .300 average and near .400 OBP. It could wind up being like seeing Max Scherzer and Joey Votto picked back to back...of course that's a best case scenario. In the second round both teams picked high upside arms with decent risks to them as well. It will be very interesting to see how this all winds up ending. However, we won't know for a few years still, but all factors included, fans can't complain at this point.
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