I went on a bit of a hiatus again. This time for different reasons. I just pretty much became totally disenfranchised with sports journalists and sports fans in general it has nothing to do with fans that understand how things work and whatnot, but just people who either don't think before they say things, or just say things that are unbelievably stupid. I had to save my sanity and realize that being around it just wasn't worth it for me. I watched the games, even rewatched some, but ignored any analysis or comments from fans on articles. To be honest, it was a good decision on my part. I hate to sound arrogant or like I'm putting myself above others, but there are a lot of really stupid people out there, and the fact that some of the really stupid people I was escaping were people who were paid to write and talk about this stuff....well, it shows yet another thing wrong with the world. Anyway, I'll have an article on this and just general fan and sportswriter faux pas behavior before too long.
Now, to the matter at hand. One of my favorite times of the year is when John Sickels releases his lists of top prospects for organizations. He goes team by team and puts them out there. Today he released his Cubs list, and before too much longer his White Sox list will be out. It probably won't be very soon, but within the next couple of months, which in the grand scheme of things isn't a long time at all. The list can be viewed here.
To be honest, you shouldn't just read these things from John Sickels, you should read everything he puts out at minorleagueball.com. The guy knows his stuff better than just about any journalist out there when it comes to talking about prospects. He's right there in that elite class. Is he 100% perfect? Of course not, nobody is when it comes to prospects, but he's got a better track record than most out there. Don't take his word as the final truth, but understand when reading his stuff that he comes from a place of knowledge.
Anyway, moving on, I will put his grades for each player on there (if you want to read his descriptions, which you should, then you'll have to click the link above), and then give my thoughts.
Javier Baez - A
I gotta agree here. While he does have a weakness with his strikeout rate, it's nothing that can't be improved on, especially given his age. Even if he does come up to the big leagues with that problem and have it for his career, he's got enough other tools to really make up for it and be a good player.
Kris Bryant - A
Bryant's power alone is enough, but the guy also seems to be able to hit well for average and looks like he's able to draw a walk as well. He's another guy who does get his share of strikeouts, but he also has enough to make up for that. The biggest knock on him right now is that he doesn't have any experience above high A ball, although he was the MVP of the Arizona Fall League, which has to count for something.
Albert Almora - A-
It's strange when a 19 year old kid may have the highest floor in an organization, but that's exactly what Almora is. If you ask me, he kind of reminds me of a Jim Edmonds with a better attitude, less power, but also a better bat for average. If you ask me, that's pretty darn good. He was billed as someone who doesn't to anything great, but does everything well. Craig Biggio, who just barely missed out on getting into the Hall of Fame today (by 2 votes, shame on anyone who didn't vote for him, as well as the guys who did make it in, all were obviously deserving). I wouldn't really compare Almora to Biggio, as they're not really the same guy, even though they do have their similarities, but they're both just guys who really don't have many, if any, noticeable weaknesses.
Jorge Soler - B+
The bat incident was something that really hurts him. It has brought up serious questions about his character. For now, I'm still saying that we should wait for something else before writing him off, remember, he was only 20 or 21 when that happened, a lot of us did a lot of stupid things at that age, and anyone who says they didn't is a liar, so they're still doing stupid things. The questions about him dogging it are premature, as when he was playing last year he was injured (supposedly the injury that ended his season actually started in Spring Training, the fact that he played through it for as long as he did actually shows quite the opposite), and he was told by the Cubs to dog it a bit in the Arizona Fall League, as they wanted to make sure he didn't risk another injury. On top of that, he was shaking off the rust, and once he did get it shaken off he actually played very well for the Solar Sox. I understand the B+ grade, and would probably go with it myself, but I'd be tempted to go with an A- as well.
CJ Edwards - B+
I still can't believe how well the Cubs did in return for about 2-3 months worth of Matt Garza. Edwards instantly became the best pitching prospect in an organization that had seen it's minor league pitching quality grow pretty well throughout that last season. His size is still something that concerns some of the scouts out there, but he's not a power guy. He's got a solid fastball, but his velocity isn't what makes him as good as he is. There's a number of other things. If he did have to rely on that fastball, then it would be a question to me, but there have been smaller guys who have relied more on their fastball who have been just fine. Either way, if he does wind up being a bullpen guy like some reporters seem to think, he can wind up being one of the better bullpen pitchers out there. I agree with this grade entirely, if anywhere I would go down to a B, but a lot of that has to do with my just not knowing enough about him and his not pitching above high A ball yet, even though he did dominate there.
Arismendy Alcantara - B
I couldn't agree more with this grade. I can see reasons for going higher or lower, but I think this grade hits the nail on the head. Alcantara has a complete package. He looks like he'll be a good defender, he's got power, he's got speed, and he can get on base at a decent enough rate. He probably won't ever be a very high average guy, but he's got enough extra base power in that little body as well as an ability to take a walk to where it won't be a huge deal. The arguments for him being higher are what he really did last season and how he can build on that. The arguments against it are based around him pretty much getting up this far based mostly on one single season. I think it's somewhere in the middle. The fact that he broke out in AA is an encouraging sign though.
Pierce Johnson - B
Johnson is, to be honest, my favorite pitching prospect in the system. A pitcher with such an advanced repertoire at his age is very exciting to see. He does have his durability issues, but he was just fine last season. Until he gets another major injury, I'm not going to worry about that. Anyway, most reporters and scouts see him as a middle rotation guy. While I don't see him as a future true ace, I can see him filling in as a #1 guy (since there are so few true aces in the league). Also, he's probably got the highest floor of any of the higher pitching prospects in the Cubs organization.
Jeimer Candelario - B
Candelario's biggest asset right now is his age. While the raw numbers were not the best in Kane County, there are certain things that you can look at and realize that he may be better than expected. First off, his power is developing. He was 19 during last season and hit 11 home runs in under 600 plate appearances. Over a full MLB season that can go up to around 13-15 home runs, at age 19. Power usually develops more well into a player's 20's (normally, far from always). He can be a 20-25 home run guy by the time he's ready for the bigs. Also, for someone his age his 88 strikeouts were actually a pretty good number. His 68 walks to go along with that shows an advanced level of patience for his age. Considering his OBP was close to 100 points higher than his average, that lets us know that he's on the right track.
Dan Vogelbach - B
He's actually a little bit lower, if I remember right, than he was last year. I'm thinking some of that has to do with his numbers being a little bit lower than in 2012, but he still put up some very good numbers, mostly in Kane County. His power numbers were still very good, and he showed that he can take a walk as well as having a good batting average. He'll never be a gold glove player, but his bat will more than make up for that.
Christian Villanueva - B-
Villanueva's glove is his really calling card. He is expected to be a gold glove level third baseman (well, maybe that's a bit of a stretch at this point, but he's expected to be an excellent defender), but his bat isn't terrible either. His power numbers were actually very good this past season with 17 home runs and 41 doubles. While he, along with Candelario, will likely be blocked at 3rd in the future, they can make for some very good trade bait that might be able to land the Cubs something great in the future.
Arodys Vizcaino -C+
Vizcaino could wind up being much better than this, or he could wind up being a solid player. There's no question as to what his stuff is like. He's got great stuff. However, if he'll ever get to use it and how he'll get to use it are both huge questions. Will he be a bullpen guy, or will he be a starter? Right now, after the Tommy John surgery and very slow recovery, it's looking more like bullpen, but who knows, he might be able to start still. It's a wait and see type of thing.
Mike Olt - C+
Olt is tough to figure out. It all depends on how you feel he'll do in recovering from his concussion issues. If he's ever able to fully recover and get back to what he was in 2012, then the Cubs will have a tough time benching him in favor of Bryant in a couple of years. However, if the problems persist, then Olt may soon be given up on. He's 25 years old right now, so he really only has a few more years to prove himself as a prospect before teams start to give up on him. This isn't to say that this season is do or die for him, but with Bryant coming up on him fast, he may be trade bait at best if he doesn't return to form.
Neil Ramirez - C+
I won't lie, I don't know much about Ramirez. I know that he came in the Garza trade (along with Edwards and Olt), and I understand that control is an issue for him, but he supposedly does have good actual stuff. Looking just at the numbers, he looks like he can wind up being a good 4 or 5 guy, or maybe a solid guy in the bullpen. However, there's just too much I don't know.
Matt Szczur - C+
The perfect 4th outfielder type. He's got blazing speed, doesn't strike out much, gets on base, and is a good defender. Think of Tony Campana, then take away some speed, but improve his ability to get on base greatly and improve his defense a lot as well. Szczur does probably have more power as well, but that's a general idea as to what to expect out of him.
Josh Vitters - C+
I keep forgetting that he actually hit pretty well last year when he was healthy. However, his durability and his move to the outfield really hurt his value. If he's able to put together a good offensive season and not look like a liability in the outfield, he may be able to stick as a 5th outfielder/utility type of guy for a year or two and might be able to pick up some trade value as he goes along.
Kyle Hendricks - C+
This is probably where I disagree with Sickels the most, although he is the one who knows more about this stuff than I do. However, I would consider Hendricks to be a straight B guy. He continues to put up excellent numbers everywhere he goes. His ERA was under 2.50 at both stops last season (under 2 in AA, 2.48 in AAA). The knock on him is that he doesn't throw hard. Not comparing him to Maddux, but Maddux just got in the hall today, easily, and he never threw hard either. Hendricks came to the Cubs along with Villanueva in the Dempster trade, and he looks like he could wind up being the best part of that trade. He's 24 right now and will likely start at AAA, but might be able to move up to the big league squad by the end of the season, especially if anyone is dealt away.
Corey Black - C+
Black came over in the Soriano trade. Cashman didn't want to trade him, but Steinbrenner told him to do it. His stuff looks very good, although his numbers haven't caught up to it yet. He did pitch well for the Cubs after coming over, but that's over 5 starts, that's it. He's really only pitched in 36 games so far in his professional career, so there's still a lot to be seen.
Rob Zastryzny - C+
Zastryzny was the Cubs' second round pick this past draft. His fastball isn't great, but can get up to the mid 90's. He did a good job when he did pitch after the draft, but the sample sizes are very small. Still, seems to be a guy with good secondary stuff as well as good control. I'd like a better sample size, and I imagine that if there was one and he continued like he has so far, he'd be a B- or B.
Ivan Pineyro - C+
I don't know much about him either. However, so far he's pitched well in his minor league career. Looks like he's lined up to be a starter at this point...that's really about all I know about him, as he just came to the Cubs system this past season when he was traded to the Cubs for Scott Hairston.
Paul Blackburn - C+
Blackburn hasn't really blown anyone away, but he's been fairly solid so far in limited work. The sample size is small for him, but he supposedly has the stuff that top of the rotation pitchers are made of and just needs to be able to put it together.
Kevin Encarnacion - C+
He's about a year behind as far as age goes, but he put up impressive numbers last season. I'm excited to see what he's able to do in a full season at Kane County next season. Hopefully he can find his way to Daytona for a few months before next season ends.
Other Players Mentioned: Gioskar Amaya, Yasiel Balaguert, Dallas Beeler, Shawon Dunston, Jacob Hanneman, Brett Jackson, Eloy Jimenez, Erik Jokisch, Dillon Maples, Brett Marshall, Jefferson Meija, Armando Rivero, Gleyber Torres, Jen-Ho Tseng, Logan Watkins, Ben Wells
I don't know much about a lot of those guys, but some of them I do. Beeler has been solid, but nothing amazing so far in his professional career. Dunston started to break out last season, having a solid year, but I doubt he winds up being anything above a 4th outfielder. Hanneman was a very interesting draft pick in 2013. He's a great athlete who may have what it takes to be a good major league player with his defensive ability and offensive potential. Brett Jackson is someone I've pretty much given up on, and last season it seemed like he had too. Eloy Jimenez, Jefferson Meija, Gleyber Torres, and Jen-Ho Tseng are all major international signings along with Erling Moreno and Johan Matos, who were not mentioned. All of these guys are guys who, as they work their way to the states and work their way up have a very good chance to move up. Jimenez, Meija, Torres, and Tseng all have very good chances, as there's a reason they were all ranked among the top international prospects.
Moving on, Maples is one of those guys who has an outstanding arm, but needs to be able to put it all together. Logan Watkins is the only other player I know anything about, and while his time with the Cubs last year wasn't great, it was a small sample, only going up to the plate 42 times. While I don't expect the Cubs to make him a starter this year, I can see him getting a fair amount of time whenever Castro or Barney are given a rest.
The biggest thing to take from this is that the Cubs minor league system, which was looking strong last season, has gotten much stronger. There are 21 guys there who are C+ or better guys. That's outstanding, especially when there's 2 A guys and 1 A- guy right there with a couple of guys who are a good season away from being A's or A- guys themselves. Of course nothing has actually happened really worth mentioning until these guys hit the big leagues, but this system is very much on its way to producing a good major league team. As players will begin to trickle in over the next few years, hopefully the guys from the next wave are able to also make their way up and continue to keep the system strong. That's how sustained success happens.
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