Thursday, October 24, 2013

What Can We Take From the Bulls Preseason?

So right now it's impossible for any Bulls fan to be excited about what they have seen this preseason without hearing someone who roots for another team right there to remind us that it's the preseason. Still, the Bulls are undefeated, and it's not like anyone has just rolled over for them. Still though, there is a lot of truth to what they say, it is just preseason. However, their intention when they say that is to insinuate that there is nothing to be excited about despite everything that has happened during the preseason. This just isn't true. In fact, there is a lot of things that can be looked at as very good things that we have seen. Sure, nothing ensures that this team will contend for a championship, but it does point the team in the right direction

The first thing, and most obvious thing to look at is that Derrick Rose is still Derrick Rose, and he may have been right about being even better now. Rose is still getting to the basket with ease. That sentence looks small enough, but it's actually huge. That was the biggest worry about him coming off of a torn ACL. Would he still be even close to as explosive as he was before? Well, the answer seems to be yes here. It doesn't matter who he's going up against, speed is speed, and Rose looks just as quick as he did when he was healthy before the injury. On top of that, he's shooting 52.2% from 3 during the 6 preseason games he's played. From the field as a whole he's shooting 50.7%. Sure, these numbers will go down once the regular season gets going, but at the same time, it's not like they're going to absolutely plummet. While his assists are down a bit, at the same time he's not far from averaging a point per minute played right now. Even on Wednesday when he had a slow game early on, he came on in the 4th and hit 3 straight 3's as part of what was at least 11 4th quarter points, almost all in the last 4-5 minutes of the game. Sure, people will say that the point guard shouldn't be the top scorer, but that's because point guards are not always the most efficient scorers, it goes with the position. However, the bottom line is that if he's getting the team efficient points, he should be scoring. It's common sense that too many people with a traditional view of the game can't get through their thick skulls. On top of that, if defenses start to focus in on Rose too much during the regular season, the Bulls have plenty of other weapons to go to.

Which brings me to the next thing to be excited about. Jimmy Butler doesn't look like he's regressed at all. There has been some rust since he has missed a few games, but as a whole he's looking good. He's right around 45% from the field (right about where a guard should be, Kobe's career FG% is 45.4%). He's getting his rebounds, and he's averaging about 11 points per game on about 30 minutes. His free throw shooting is a touch lower than I would like, but it's nothing scary by any means, same with his 25% from 3. If we're not going to take actual stats too much into account when they're good, we can't when they're not up to par, especially in areas that can come and go like 3 point shooting. The most important thing is that his play looks like it did during the second half of last season. His defense is oppressive and he's still a solid threat on offense.

Taj Gibson is another player that we can be excited about. While he's not looking like a superstar or anything, his jumper has looked great so far. He's making the same shots at a much higher percentage than he made them last season. While it's not likely to make him a totally different player, the distance the Bulls are from being very serious contenders is really only improving on a few areas, and seeing their backup power forward improve would be a huge step forward for the team.

Moving on! Erik Murphy is the next player I will bring up. No, he hasn't set the world on fire or anything, but he looks like he can legitimately add some depth to the big men on the team. I don't think he can spend much time at center, although he does have the size, I'm not sold on his strength or length to spend much time there, but what I am sold on is his hustle. At very least the Bulls look like they have a Mark Madsen with a jumper. While that may not sound amazing, Madsen was actually a very strong piece to some very successful teams. He was an agitator who hustled at all times. Hard nosed players will always have a place in the league, even if people laugh at their statistical output like people have always done with Madsen. The bottom line though is that Madsen made things happen. Throw a jumper in on that, and he went from someone I hoped would be able to hit the occasional open jumper to someone who I can see as having a solid impact on many games during the season. I'm not saying he'll be a make or break guy, but I can see him coming in, hitting a couple of 3's, drawing attention from the defense to open things up a bit for other players, and at the same time agitating players on the other team, maybe drawing an offensive foul or two. While that doesn't sound like it'll set the league on fire, it's more than a team usually gets from a second round pick.

The other rookie on the team, Tony Snell is giving positive signs as well. This is one that has to be looked at with perspective, just like Murphy. He's a rookie on a Thibodeau coached team. He's probably not going to get a whole lot of time, but he has shown that he can at least hold his own. I expect more from him than I did from Teague or Butler their rookie season. Mostly this is because he was a #20 overall pick while Butler was a #30 and Teague was a #29 pick. Butler was a very pleasant surprise, anyone who thinks every #30 pick should be like Butler is kidding themselves. Teague's rookie season was more the norm for a player picked around there. Fans are actually complaining about the pick when his rookie season, summer league, and current preseason are actually not far off from what Butler had done at this point. While this doesn't mean that Teague will wind up being anything special, it's clearly too soon for fans to be calling him a bust. One full season and 7 preseason games is WAY too soon to write off a player anyway. ANYWAY, back to Snell, he's looked very good a times. When he has his confidence up, he looks like he can be a very solid player. The best thing to look at with him is that he looks like he can add reliable depth past Butler/Deng/Dunleavy. If any one of those guys go down and he needs to step into the rotation, I don't see the Bulls losing much at all. On top of that, "Can you Snell that Snell", "Can You Sneeeeeelll...what the Bulls....are cooking?", and "Snelling salts" can all be things heard during this upcoming season.

Of course, it's not all sunshine and happiness either. One of the first things I'll bring up is Joakim Noah. While if it's the playoffs he's in for sure, still, having a groin injury early in the season can really be rough for a player. Groin injuries are hard to shake, and the Bulls may very well want to wait until it's entirely gone before playing him again. This could wind up being several weeks into the season. On top of that, he could wind up coming back a bit too early and wind up aggravating it again and going back to square 1, missing another 6 weeks. So yes, this can easily turn into a 10 week injury, maybe even more. While it's nothing to be overly worried about now, if the Bulls and Noah are not careful with it, then it could become a problem.

The next one is with the concussion to Hinrich. You already have to account for Hinrich missing a decent chunk of the season due to injury. However, if he's not ready to go at the start of the season, that's just more games missed. Of course, this will give Teague the chance to show what he can do in actual game action, and if what he shows is good, it can wind up being a blessing in disguise (like when Deng went down last season and we got to see what Butler can do). Of course with Hinrich's basketball IQ, leadership abilities, and defense, you don't want to see him out, if the Bulls can find out they have something better than what we currently think in Teague, it can wind up not being a total disaster. On another note, it would be the second time an injury to Hinrich has helped to give a big break to someone in that Teague family.

There's good and bad things to look at in the preseason. Luckily, as Bulls fans, the positives outweigh the negatives right now. Of course that can change in the wink of an eye, but for now there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the season to come. If Noah heals completely before coming back, Hinrich heals up fine and doesn't miss too much time, and everything else continues to look like it has (with the expected changes, like Rose's percentages from the field/3, Murphy and Snell's reduced time, etc), then the Bulls can be in very good shape once the season is underway. With those assumptions and also assuming no major setbacks, they will be a serious threat to the Heat this coming season as well as anyone else in the league. We still have yet to see if Thibodeau realizes better how long he should be playing some of these guys, but again, things are looking up right now.

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