So the Masahiro Tanaka battle will be drawing to a close over the next week, and really could wind up ending over the next few days. The Cubs and White Sox, along with the Dodgers, Yankees, and the Diamondbacks. The Angels are supposedly in, but haven't made any sort of formal offer. Just being in Chicago gives the Cubs a very strong negotiating point, but the Dodgers and Yankees are in even larger cities. However, not all hope is lost. Both Chicago teams have their chance. If I were to weigh it, I'd say the Cubs have a better shot than the White Sox, but neither team is out of it at all, and the White Sox could very well be the team to land him. The chances are that the money will be very similar among all of the offers, so a sales pitch is going to be very important. Here is what I bring up for each team.
White Sox Sales Pitch
Some of the things that Tanaka is looking for is to be "the man", a big market to be showcased well, and a chance to win. It's going to be tough for the White Sox since Tanaka would likely be the #2 guy, behind Sale in that rotation. Another hurdle is the White Sox chances to win. The White Sox do not have a team that is likely to contend this season, and they do not have a deep farm system that is likely to make the team a contender anywhere in the near future. However, they don't have to believe that themselves, and they need to use that belief in a sales pitch to Tanaka.
They need to go over the roster, position by position. Dayan Viciedo is in left field. He had a down year last year, but he has a good chance to improve this coming season. Adam Eaton is a good looking young player in center field. Avisail Garcia is another good looking young player that they recently got in a trade. Neither Garcia or Eaton was on the White Sox for most of, if at all of last season. At third it's not going to be as easy of a sell, but Gillaspie does have some power. Alexei Ramirez is a very solid all-around shortstop. Gordon Beckham is one of the best defensive second basemen in the game. Abreu, at this point, is the big offseason acquisition for the White Sox, he has great power and a bat that can hit well for average as well. Catcher is another tougher sell, but they can stress age and that they expect improvements from those guys. They also have Dunn and Konerko, both 1B/DH guys. Konerko is likely in his last year with the White Sox, but can still be a great leader and a great clubhouse guy. I'll get back to more on him later. The White Sox have a good rotation. Currently they have about 6 MLB level starters, especially with young talent like Johnson and Sale. Like I said before, Tanaka would probably be the #2 guy in that rotation. The bullpen isn't great, but it's also not absolutely atrocious. Over half the probably bullpen guys have ERAs under 4, which again, doesn't sound amazing or anything, and it will probably be a slightly below average bullpen, which means they'll probably give up 3 or 4 more games than most bullpens. Not ideal, but not a huge difference. If the White Sox are able to use all of that well (not like I did, what I did was a very rough summary), then they should be able to convince Tanaka that they have a team that has a chance to get into the playoffs. As everyone who has been watching baseball for more than 5 years knows, once you get into the playoffs it's not the best team, but the hottest team that wins (sometimes the hottest team is the best team, but use 2006 as an example when the Cardinals who were barely a .500 team in the regular season won it all, they were clearly not the best team in the league that year). This will show Tanaka that he actually does have a chance to win right away with the White Sox.
Another tough hurdle for the White Sox will be not just Tanaka being the man there, the #1 guy, which he would be on many other pitching staffs. Also, even though the White Sox are in a huge market, they are also the #2 team of the two teams in that market. No matter what he does on the south side, someone on the Cubs will do half as much and will steal the headlines. However, White Sox fans are fiercely loyal fans. They remember the guys who did well for them and immortalize them, not matter if that player wins a World Series with them or not. I mean, this is the organization that retired Harold Baines' number in 1989. This doesn't seem that crazy, lots of players get their numbers retired. However, Baines was 30 at the time. Baines was still an active player who had just been traded to the Texas Rangers. At that point in his career he had put up about a .289 average with 186 home runs over about 10 seasons. He was a 4 time all-star as well. Good career that far, sure, but nothing spectacular. However, Baines was adored by White Sox fans. Baines is still adored by White Sox fans. As long as a player plays well and is well behaved, the White Sox fans will love them for all eternity. They will immortalize that person. Now, back to Paul Konerko. Konerko has actually had a very impressive career so far. He probably won't get into the hall of fame due to his weak defense (was always good at sucking up balls he could get to, but had horrible range throughout his career). This year is likely to be his last, and the White Sox can sell that to Tanaka and let him know that he'll have a chance to see that White Sox fan love. Also, he'll just straight up get a chance to play with Konerko, who is a great leader and someone who has been in Chicago for so long and can tell Tanaka how great it really is.
When asked about other team, the White Sox, of course, will need to be respectful, but will be able to tell it how it is as well. Then Yankees are a team with a recent history of success, but who are on a steep drop and have a lot of money still tied up in the near future that will limit what they can do to improve the team over the life of Tanaka's contract. The Diamondbacks are in a large market, but the smallest of the teams involved. Also, they are not perennial winners by any means. The Cubs are as far from perennial winners as there is, and there is no promise of the upcoming prospects turning out to be even major league quality players. On the Dodgers he'd be even lower in the rotation than for the White Sox, and with that rotation would really just be another face. If the Angels are in there, it's another team with a lot of big names where he could easily get lost. Also, they have signed a couple of massive contracts that are very likely bad contracts that will kill the team's ability to improve much over the life of a 5 or 6 year contract.
Showing Tanaka that the they actually have a chance to win right away and convincing him that he could easily be an absolute legend on the south side who will be part of a team with great leadership gives the White Sox the best chance at landing him. It's going to be a tough case for them to make, but it is one that can be made.
Cubs Sales Pitch
The Cubs are the favorite baseball team in the city of Chicago. They have a ton of young talent coming up through a very deep minor league system. This should be a pretty easy pitch, right? Well, not necessarily. They have lost 90 or more games each of the last 2 seasons. Just 2 years ago they lost over 100 games for the first time in over four decades. This is not a team that can really twist things around in any way to tell Tanaka that they're ready to win right away.
Still, the team has a ton to offer that Tanaka wants. Huge market? Check. Being the more popular team in a 2 team market? Check. Being the #1 guy in a rotation? Check. Those are all huge check marks. On top of that, him coming here would give him the leverage of really helping out the public perception of his team's owner and the team president. I don't know if they want to bring that last part up in discussions though.
Still though, the losing is going to really be something the Cubs are going to have to work their way out of. The first thing that needs to be brought up is the big four position prospects, Baez, Bryant, Almora, and Soler. They'll also need to bring up CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson, two of some of the best pitching prospects in the Cubs system. However, while the team isn't winning right now, there are still some position players who can be mentioned. Starlin Castro had a bad season last year, but only the most naive of fans would write a player off after one down season (if one bad season early in a career doomed a player, Ryne Sandberg wouldn't be in the hall of fame right now). Castro still has insane range at short and has actually shown improvement on the other defensive aspects (take a look for yourself). Anthony Rizzo also had a down season, but it was really only his batting average that suffered at all. He still has very good power and is also a great locker room guy who can really spread his love of the game around. Jeff Samardzija is still on the team right now and is a great competitor whose numbers have really mostly suffered because of the team he's on. Wellington Castillo is a great student of the game who brings both a strong bat and a very strong glove at the catcher position. Junior Lake is an exciting prospect, and the rest of the every day guys are all good baseball guys, even if they don't have a ton of talent. He'd be able to learn a lot about the ups and downs of a season from Edwin Jackson, a former hyped super prospect who has wound up disappointing thus far in his career. Also behind him in the rotation is Travis Wood, a player of similar age who is a great guy to have as the #3 starter in the rotation. Either way, there's a ton of young talent on the team and coming up soon, all guys that he'll be able to grow with, and very importantly, play with for a long time. This could be a team that remains in tact for a good decade, which can be a huge selling point. Last thing about the roster that I'll mention is that they've bolstered the bullpen big time. The bullpen started playing well later in the season, but still needed some help. Now it's looking like it may actually be a strong bullpen. The biggest thing for the Cubs here is going to be getting Tanaka to believe in the guys that are coming up.
There is one big thing that they can sell with the guys coming up. Behind the 6 main prospects is a lot of depth. The Cubs are deep at just about every position in their system as well as having a second wave of prospects that will start to make noise in the next 2-3 years in the system. If the current main guys fail, there are more guys ready to step right in, and another chance at finding stars not too far off.
The good thing for the Cubs is that there's really not enough otherwise that they'll need to sell to Tanaka. Sure, they'll have to say the same things about the other teams that the White Sox will say. They'll also have to say about the White Sox that they're not contenders now and don't look to improve much in the near future with their average to poor minor league system and much more restrictive rules on signing free agents. They should also throw in that he would be hidden in obscurity with the White Sox as well. Still, the bottom line is that they're really going to have to downplay the losing and sell Tanaka on their chances of winning in the fairly near future, as in possibly by 2015.
It's safe to say that it's still a long shot for either team to wind up with Tanaka, but the chances are there. We will find out in the very near future if either team was actually able to complete the sale, but it's interesting to look into what each team has to offer.
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