The end of the minor league season is very close. The playoffs are on the way for some teams, but as a whole, we're about ready to close the book on this year's minor league season. So this is a good time to go over the top 10 prospects combined between the Cubs and White Sox. To no surprise, this list will be Cubs heavy, as the Cubs are well into a rebuild where the White Sox are just starting their rebuild. However, that's no reason for a White Sox fan to not be interested. There are still some very solid prospects that will be coming up for the south siders in the future, including the best pitching prospect right now. This is a list that should really help to paint a hopeful picture for fans who are in the dumps right now about this season.
The criteria I'm using for a prospect is that they haven't played at the big league level yet. I'm not going to get picky with number of at bats, or if certain guys were brought up just for the teams to get a look or with the intent of being up for good. If they've played in the bigs, then they're not on this list. If they haven't, then they're fair game. So let's begin:
10. Tim Anderson - With the 17th overall pick in the 2013 draft, the Chicago White Sox select Tim Anderson. Those words brought the White Sox a very good prospect. Anderson, a shortstop, almost looks like he has the perfect makeup to be a solid shortstop, although he may fit in better at second instead.
Anderson has a solid bat as far as hitting for average goes. He doesn't have a lot of power, but he does make solid contact. His strikeout numbers are a bit high, but remember that he had to go through that shaking off the rust period early on. In the field it's believed that he may wind up moving to second because he doesn't have a particularly strong arm, but it's not an especially weak arm either and can hold up well at short.
Premium position prospects will always get that little bit extra when they're ranked, and for a shortstop, Anderson is a very solid prospect. At the current time it doesn't look like he will be a superstar, but he can be a solid every day shortstop at the big league level for the White Sox.
He's still young, and was only at low A this season. However, he should be at high A to start next season, and if things work out well, moving up to AA by the end of next season is not out of the question for him.
9. Dan Vogelbach - It's really tough to say where Vogelbach really is. While his bat is worthy of being in the top 5 on this list, his limitations for the field really knock him down. Vogelbach has that body type that will pretty much put him at 1st base and keep him there. His build reminds a lot of people of a Prince Fielder.
Vogelbach's bat cannot be denied though. Tape measure home runs are no rare occurrence with him, and he hits well for average. He's been very consistent as he has worked his way up as well. He doesn't strike out a whole lot, but he does walk a lot. This is exactly what Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been looking for with their hitters.
Still, with Anthony Rizzo at first base, while the Cubs may not have the offensive machine it looked like they would have a year ago (although this season could also be a sophomore slum still), Rizzo has a great glove and is a great guy to have in the clubhouse. The Cubs will likely have at least one more year to figure out what to do before Vogelbach is ready for the bigs, but they may have a tough decision still. It's going to be tough to say, and outside of the National League picking up the DH, it doesn't look like Rizzo and Vogelbach will both wind up on the big league team. Still, the talent is what makes a prospect, and Vogelbach may be stuck at first, but he's been solid there so far, and his bat is very good.
8. CJ Edwards - The biggest name in the Matt Garza trade was Mike Olt. He's the higher level prospect, and very well could wind up being a good player, but there's a ton of questions with him. I'd even go as far as to say that the questions with him really add up to more than the questions that Edwards has just by only recently starting to work his way out of the lower levels while being 22. The way I'm looking at it though is that some guys are late bloomers.
Edwards wasn't taken high at all in the 2011 draft mainly due to issues with the speed on his fastball. However, he found that, and has been outstanding over the last couple of seasons. In fact, he didn't give up a home run in his entire minor league career until after being traded to the Cubs this season. He's been outstanding since being traded to the Cubs (and moving up another level in the system).
By the time next season comes around there's a solid chance that he could be moved up to AA and on his way to making the big league club sometime in 2015. It all depends on how he does at each level on the way up, but things are looking really good for him right now.
7. Courtney Hawkins - The physical tools that Courtney Hawkins possesses are up there with anyone on this list. He's got a big frame that is capable of holding a ton of power. He's a very good fielder with a great arm, and he has very good speed as well.
So why isn't he higher up on the list? Well, because he has been absolutely terrible this past season. The reason isn't anything certain. It could very well be that the White Sox promoted him too aggressively last season and should have left him at a lower level, despite the big numbers he was putting up. It sounds silly to do this, but that is what is done with most high school position players. While it's understandable that the White Sox were excited to have him and work him up in the system, he was 18 years old and played at 3 different levels in one season. It's happened successfully before, but it's only been with the most of elite high school talent, and as gifted as Hawkins is, he's not at that level.
He's got a .174/.243/.382 (.624 OPS) slash line this year. The slugging percentage is very likely brought up significantly by his 18 home runs, which is a good number, especially given his 380 at bats this season, but his 160 strikeouts are almost Adam Dunn type strikeout numbers. Over a season with 500 at bats that's 210 strikeouts, and it's against high A pitching.
Hawkins has all of the physical talent in the world, but there's real worry as to if he will wind up getting over the high A/AA hump over the next couple of seasons. The hand/eye coordination may just not be there, or maybe the White Sox handled him wrong off the bat and need to slow down and allow him to figure things out at high A.
6. Pierce Johnson - Johnson hasn't made his mark doing anything overly spectacular. He doesn't have this insanely high ceiling or anything like that, but he's very solid. He was drafted in the first round compensation round by the Cubs in 2012. He was solid in Kane County early in the season, and has been even better since being called up to Daytona. His total innings are only 118 this season, but the results have been strong.
His only pitch that isn't a very good pitch is his changeup. It's still a solid pitch though, one of three that it's believed that he has right now. Upon being drafted people were much more worried about a forearm strain he had suffered than they were about his actual stuff. In fact, there's almost no doubt he falls into the compensation round if it wasn't for that strain. While a forearm strain isn't something to just completely look past, it's still a very minor injury that shouldn't have too much attention paid to it.
Johnson is going to be at least mid-2015 before he's up at the major league level, but when he does come up he has the potential to be a solid #2 starter.
5. Erik Johnson - Johnson has worked his way up the White Sox system at a solid pace, doing it by pitching well at every level, that is, until he hit AAA. At AAA he has been absolutely great. His ERA is below 2. He does only have 57 innings so far at AAA (started the season at AA), but they have been so good that he may be in the competition to be a starter next season.
Johnson was the 2nd round pick of the White Sox in the 2011 draft. He has a very solid frame at 6'3" and 235 lbs. He has a very good fastball, and all of his other pitches are very good, not great, but he does have 4 good pitches, and should be very strong going into next season and a real candidate to make the White Sox rotation.
4. Jorge Soler - Soler was looking great this season. During spring training he was really turning heads. He got off to a scorching start in Daytona, and even when he cooled off he was still a major threat. However, there were also a couple of red flags that came up with him.
The first one was the whole bat incident. During a game, after an altercation that had taken place during the last half inning, Soler left the dugout to confront a player on the other team with a bat in his hand. While this is just one incident, and never doing this again will only prove that it was a one time mistake, this does raise a red flag as to if he has the right mindset or if his temper will become an issue.
The second was with the injury. It could very well be a one time thing, but a stress fracture is something that does raise eyebrows, although it very likely will not be a real issue, and it also may help to explain why his numbers went down later instead of him just beating the snot out of other pitchers constantly like he was early on. Still, with how tight these top 4 prospects are, Soler is a good healthy run from moving up to the #1 spot.
3. Albert Almora - Almora was the Cubs first round pick, #6 overall, in the 2012 draft. He's missed large pieces of this past season due to a couple of different injuries. However, these injuries are nothing to be too worried about. They are injuries to two different parts of his body and were ones that happened under circumstances where injuries do happen.
The thing you will always hear and that has been said 100's of times about Almora is that he doesn't do any single thing great, but he does everything very well. That includes the intangibles, as Almora is said to be a born leader that truly loves to be out there and play the game. On defense it's said that he has a good arm and reads the ball off the bat surprisingly well.
His slash line this year is .329/.376/.466 (.842 OPS). He has 17 doubles, 4 triples, 3 home runs, 23 RBI, 4 stolen bases, 30 strikeouts, and 17 walks in 249 at bats in low A Kane County. While it looks like he's done for this season, especially since the Cougars won't be in the playoffs, he still may very well start next season at Daytona due to the excellent numbers he did put up when he was healthy this season.
The injuries really are nothing to be concerned about at this point. Sure, if it keeps happening, no matter if they are under normal injury circumstances or not, eventually they may become an issue, but for now they're nothing for anyone to worry about. We're still a couple of years from seeing him at the big league level, but he's going to be very fun to watch when he gets there.
2. Kris Bryant - Kris Bryant was the Cubs first round pick, second overall, in the 2013 draft. Bryant hit more home runs this past season than some entire teams. His power has been rated by some scouts as 80 power (best it can be rated), which is a rating that is rare to see thrown out there. Bryant's bat is good beyond his power through, he hits well for average, and could easily wind up being a guy that hits around .280-.290 on a regular basis.
There were some concerns about Bryant's glove and where he would wind up on a long-term basis in the big leagues. He's currently at 3rd base, but due to his size (6'5"), some feel like he may not be able to stick at 3rd base. However, Bryant is a very good athlete. He's not a speed demon or anything, but he's not a liability on the base paths either.
His numbers this season are solid. He got off to a very slow start while shaking the rust off, but then he turned it on and became a complete terror for other teams. His stats for his season are .336/.390/.688 (1.078 OPS) with 14 doubles, 2 triples, 9 home runs, 32 RBI, 1 stolen base, 35 strikeouts, and 11 walks in 128 at bats. His numbers at high A, where he currently is, are .333/.387/.719 (1.106 OPS) with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 5 home runs, 14 RBI, 1 stolen base, 17 strikeouts, and 3 walks in 57 at bats.
The sample sizes are very small, but it's clear that Bryant is still well above the competition he is playing against. This makes sense given he's 21 years old and considered to be a very good prospect. For him to be at AA at age 22 wouldn't be bad at all, which is where I see him starting next season. If he's strong there, seeing him at AAA around the halfway point of the season isn't out of the question. I wouldn't count on it, but seeing him on the big league club by the end of the season isn't quite 100% out of the question, but again, I wouldn't count on it.
1. Javier Baez - The Cubs got Baez with the 9th pick of the 2011 draft. Early on Baez was seen as a raw, high risk, high reward type of pick. He had excellent bat speed, he was athletic, and he was at a premium defensive position. However, at the same time he was seen as undisciplined, and as I said before, raw. Just a couple of years later, the positives are all still there, and the negatives are being ironed out. His walks have started to go up and his strikeouts down as the season has gone on. He has a frighteningly high error total, but as the season has gone on the errors have become less and less frequent. Also, his 43 errors this season are still 13 fewer than Derek Jeter had in 1993.
The biggest thing with Javier Baez is that his numbers this year are looking more and more great. His offensive strengths make him look more and more like his strengths will far outnumber his weaknesses. Remember that making the switch from A+ ball to AA ball is the time where most prospects are either exposed as future major league players or guys who will be stuck in the minors until they give it up. His totals on the season are a .285/.344/.583 (.927 OPS) slash line along with 34 doubles, 4 triples, 37 home runs, 111 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 144 strikeouts, and 40 walks in 513 at bats. However, since he came up to AA those numbers are .299/.352/.650 (1.001 OPS) slash line along with 15 doubles, 20 home runs, 54 RBI, 8 stolen bases, 66 strikeouts, and 19 walks in 214 at bats. No matter how you look at it, Baez got even better when he went to AA.
He will likely be starting next season in AAA (although I can't read Epstein or Hoyer's minds), and depending on how well he plays there could be up before the Cubs get too far into the season.
So there you have it. The Cubs have a very strong group of young prospects that are making their way up. By the end of 2015 most of them should at very least be ready for the big leagues, if they do all pan out. With the White Sox, the foundations for a strong rebuild are starting to take place. The future may still be a couple of years off for both teams, but once it is here things can take a huge turn for both teams.
I will end this with some honorable mentions: Arismendy Alcantara (tough time picking between him and Anderson), Tyler Danish, Trayce Thompson, Chris Beck, Mike Olt, Arodys Vizcaino, Matt Szczur, Neil Ramirez, Christian Villanueva, Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Jae-Hoon Ha
No comments:
Post a Comment