This is honestly the biggest trade I can ever remember the Cubs making. In case you didn't hear the news, the Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija AND Jason Hammel to the Oakland A's for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, Dan Straily, and a PTBNL. I'm going to go over the pieces the Cubs got in return and look at what it means for the Cubs system now and in the future. This may be a bit of a mind bending type of post, as it will go in many directions, but the bottom line is that this trade was huge, and the return for the Cubs was even more massive.
The first thing I will look at is the negative, the cost for the Cubs to get these 3 guys. Jeff Samardzija was having a great season, his third as a starting pitcher, and second one without worry of being shut down. We all know Samardzija's skill set, but what was his future with the Cubs? He could have been a part of the plan for the future with the Cubs, who had attempted to extend him several times, but Samardzija was looking for ace level money, and as good of a season as he was having, his full body of work doesn't even approach ace level. Last season he had an ERA of 4.34 after a strong start, and the year before he finished the season with an ERA of 3.81 before getting shut down at about 175 innings. While those numbers actually look bad, keep in mind that last year Samardzija was in his first full year as a starter, and was likely in foreign territory once he got past 175 innings, as he finished the season with about 214 innings. So in other words, his last 6 starts or so were on a workload that he had never experienced before, and those along with a few before that (that were on a workload he was unfamiliar with), were where that ERA started to go up. He also admitted that he's a big game type of guy. He'll have plenty of those pitching for the team with the best record in baseball. One other note on Samardzija is that despite being 29 years old, first off, he has low mileage on his arm, being a bullpen guy for so long, and the Cubs also had control through next season on him, which the A's now have, this added a ton to his value.
As for Jason Hammel, he was on a 1 year contract and was pretty much seen as a cheap free agent signing for the Cubs to try to flip with higher value to a team in a trade. That worked out great for them. Hammel pitched very well this season with an ERA of 2.98, and his FIP wasn't much higher at 3.16, meaning that the ERA was very legitimate, much due to his low WHIP of 1.021. Hammel's biggest problem throughout his career has been his health, and he remained healthy throughout his time with the Cubs. Seeing as the contract was only a 1 year deal, the chances are that Hammel isn't back with the Cubs next season, especially including the increase in his value (probably looking for multiple years and 7 digits in his next deal), and his age, 31 (Cubs are looking for guys closer to the age of the guys who will be coming up). That whole signing worked out just as perfectly as the Scott Feldman signing worked out for them, and even better than the Paul Maholm signing.
So, in short, the Cubs lost a very good, but expensive front of the rotation starter and a middle to back starter that was a little older, but with mileage and an injury history, but was also a good pitcher. So there was a cost to the current team, but not a huge cost to the future of the franchise, as neither seemed to be playing into the long term plans given Hammel's age and injuries, and Samardzija's demands for his contract. It hurts to let both of them go, especially when you consider the attitude that each brought (Samardzija a pure competitor and Hammel a good veteran mind), but when rebuilding a team, things like this happen.
Now let's look at the return. I'll start with the biggest, Addison Russell. When I heard his name in the trade, I figured it would be him and maybe one more solid prospect. That's how good Russell is. I think it was Jim Deschaies today that said that he had been told by a scout that Russell is Barry Larkin with more power. Larkin had 198 career home runs and seasons with 33 and 20 home runs, so it's not like Larkin was lacking power. He's also in the hall of fame. Now, let's pump the brakes a bit and look at other things, don't worry, there aren't any negatives anytime soon. Before the season, Baseball America had Russell as the #14 prospect. Baseball Haven had him at #9, Baseball Prospectus had him at #7, Bleacher Report #8, Fangraphs #8, John Sickels #15, ESPN #3, mlb.com #11, MLB Prospect Guide #9, Prospect Digest #10, and scout.com #4. Jason Parks has him moving up to the #6 spot on his list for Baseball Prospectus (up one spot) this year. In other words, we're talking about an amazing prospect. He's a shortstop that should have no issues sticking at short. He's about 3 months older than Albert Almora (more or less, the same age), and at AA, so he's advanced at a young age as well. This season he was recovering from a torn hamstring, but has been healthy since. His slash line in 57 plate appearances is .333/.439/.500. If he remains healthy the rest of this season, expect to see him move up even further, assuming those numbers don't drop. The Southern League is a fairly pitcher friendly league, so this will be a bit more of a challenge for him. The bottom line is that Russell is a HUGE prospect, and if you had told me a week ago that the Cubs could get him straight up for Samardzija, I would have found some way to reach Theo Epstein myself to tell him to make that trade. That alone would have been a very good trade for both sides.
One negative I hear as far as Russell goes is a laughably stupid criticism. That is that you can't play 3 shortstops at once (Castro, Russell, Baez). To that I say yes, you can. What you do is you put them at different positions. Almost every writer who has covered this trade as well as Len and JD have brought this up. You play them at different positions. If someone is a shortstop they can also play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, RF, probably CF, and LF. Hell, they may even be able to put time in at catcher. That's how versatile shortstop prospects are, and that's why they're so highly valued. On today's Cubs broadcast they even went over a list of players who started at SS and are known for playing other positions. Guys like Jim Thome, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, and many others. The list was a mile long. So, in other words, you put them elsewhere and keep the guys with the best combination of skills. The added flexibility that this trade gives the Cubs is absolutely obscene. Having too many shortstops is a problem that every front office dreams of having.
Next, Billy McKinney. Russell was the first round pick of the A's, a good drafting team, in 2012, and McKinney was the first round pick in 2013 at 24th overall. It's still a bit early with McKinney to get a great gauge, as he was drafted out of high school (which makes it a bit tougher early on, we're not talking someone like Kris Bryant, who had 3 years in college), but he'll be 20 late next month. Last season in rookie ball and low A (think Kane County) he hit .326 with 3 home runs and a full slash line of .326/.387/.437. That's good for an OPS of over .800, not bad for someone right out of high school. This year he was thrown right up to high A ball, and his numbers have suffered a little bit, his slash line being .241/.330/.400, but that's still good for an OPS of .730, includes 10 home runs in 333 plate appearances, and 36 walks opposed to 58 strikeouts. That's a pretty good ratio. While he has room for improvement, remember, he's 19 years old right now and extremely young for high A ball. This is a very good prospect for the Cubs to get in return in this trade, and he may have a bright future.
The last piece we know about right now is Dan Straily. He's a guy who has been walking the line between AAA and the big leagues over the last few years. He's got good stuff and could be as good as a middle of the rotation starter. He was very solid in 2012 and 2013 for the A's, but struggled this season thus far. However, he's being seen as a Jake Arrieta type of guy, and going to the National League and working with Chris Bosio as well as the rest of the Cubs minor league staff could wind up really helping him, as they've been working miracles so far. Straily was another good guy to get in return, and he could potentially wind up helping the Cubs in the near future, possibly even this season.
I like to split the trade into two parts. Samardzija for Russell and Hammel for the other two. Both trades look very good for the Cubs. However, there's still that player to be named later. There is no word out there of who that could be (and it could wind up being cash too), but there are rumors that include Raul Alcantara, a good pitching prospect who recently underwent Tommy John surgery. In that case the Cubs might be looking to see how he looks at a certain milestone in his recovery before deciding on him. Either way, it's like getting a couple of good trades from the A's, then getting a bonus player just for the hell of it. Not a bad bonus at all.
So who won the trade? Both teams. The A's are the best team in baseball this year as far as record goes. However, having the best record doesn't mean a thing once the playoffs start. Let's not forget when the Cubs had the best record in the NL in 2008 then got swept by the Dodgers in the first round. Let's also not forget the 2006 Cardinals, who were 81-80 (late season game rained out and not rescheduled since it wouldn't have made a difference) and wound up winning it all, again, as virtually a .500 team. So the best thing a team can do is make sure they have all of the talent they can get, and never settle, because the best way to get an advantage in the playoffs is to have the most talent. With this trade they really maximized an already good pitching staff. Given that pitching is where you want to make sure you're stacked in the playoffs, the A's clearly have that at this point. The Cubs, on the other hand, have built even further for their future and are not only building that group for the team they put on the field in the future, but also are building up trade pieces to have in order to make those trades for established stars. They're preparing for a prospect to fizzle out and not be what we all thought they would be, the bottom line is that they're building that system up even more. You would probably be hard pressed to find a writer, or anyone with knowledge of the minor league systems of different teams, that wouldn't have the Cubs as having the top system in baseball. I can't imagine it even being close seeing as how well Schwarber has played so far, and the addition of 2 first round talents, including a top 10 prospect. Both teams are in very different situations, and both teams got massive pieces to make their current situations even better. Worst case scenario for the A's sees this as a Matt Clement type of trade (around the time that trade took place) where the Cubs were forced to see one of the guys they traded away look great for a few years, but still got a lot out of Clement. Worst case scenario for the Cubs is that all 3 guys totally flop and they wind up taking cash instead of the PTBNL. Keep in mind, that worse case scenario for the Cubs is very unlikely.
Now, where does that leave the Cubs system? Well, as a whole? They're the #1 system in baseball, and not because of one or two guys, because of a whole stockpile of great players. What I'm getting at more is where do these guys fall as far as the Cubs top prospects go? Well, what I will do is look at John Sickels preseason rankings, and use those as well as my own intuition based on how well those players have performed this season to figure things out. I use Sickels, because in all honesty, and with all the love to a lot of the other talent evaluators out there, I feel like he's the best of the bunch. To see the rankings yourself, you can see the Cubs here and the A's here. You may notice, he had Russell and McKinney as prospects #1 and #2 in a good A's system. I'm also going to have to go with my best instincts on the new draft picks, but I'll generally keep them out, especially if they haven't played yet. So anyway, I'll make my first attempt EVER at a Cubs top 20 prospect list. I'll include grades as well, like Sickels does.
1. Kris Bryant - A+ - He's looking more and more like a sure star every day. He's torn apart pitching at every level, and could probably come up today and improve the offense for the Cubs.
2. Javier Baez - A - This is pretty much a 2A and 2B, but I give Baez the edge for working through his struggles and being very impressive for the most part over the last couple of months (outside of the week or so after he fouled that ball off his face), and having such a massive offensive upside, which may be the best offensive upside in all of baseball.
3. Addison Russell - A - Very high potential all around, as a fielder, as a hitter, and on the basepaths. Okay, his speed, while good, is not great, but there are very few holes in his game.
4. Arismendy Alcantara - A- - I may be a bit high on Alcantara, but there's really no reason not to be. Alcantara was a B before the season, but he has not only shown that he can do at AAA what he did at AA, but has done it even better, showing that his breakout last year was no fluke, which I'm sure was a question in the mind of many writers.
5. Albert Almora - A- - While some may think that he should drop a bit, I'm keeping him at an A-. First off, he had one big slump, but has broken out of it and is hitting just as good as ever since then. He's shown that once he finally faces competition, that he will be able to adjust. He's still a top level defender and a great guy to have in the clubhouse.
6. Jorge Soler - B+ - I won't move his grade either, and for me it's actually down a bit due to his hamstrings turning into a legitimate concern. I've never heard of a player in their early 20's having a career threatening hamstring issue, but if they're a problem now, I worry about when he gets into his 30's. Still, his offensive upside is absurd, and when he has played he's shown some of that upside. He also looks like a good defender with a strong throwing arm and good speed.
7. Kyle Schwarber - B+ - He brings a huge bat to the Cubs lineup. Position may still be a concern, but I'm thinking that he might actually be able to stick at catcher, but eventually he would have to be moved to make sure he career isn't shortened.
8. CJ Edwards - B+ - His injury, if he were at the big league level, would probably not have him out for more than 4-6 weeks. However, they want to be safe with him. When he has pitched, he's pitched well, with an ERA down in the 2's. He's also added some size to help make me more comfortable that he's a starter in the future.
9. Billy McKinney - B - He was a B, borderline B+ before the season, and while he hasn't really hurt his case this year, he hasn't helped it either. The power has developed, and he continues to be a good on base guy, but there is just no additional guarantee that wasn't expected before the season. Still, he's looking like a good prospect right now.
10. Pierce Johnson - B - He's pitched well when he has pitched, but has been hurt for a large part of the year, so you can't really move him up in the system at all at this point.
11. Paul Blackburn - B - He's looking very good at Kane County right now. He's got a very high upside, and is still only 20 years old.
12. Dan Vogelbach - B - He had a rough start to the season and
seems to not be hitting for as much power. However, there is still some
good power left, and he worked his way out of that slump from earlier.
He's still not going to play anywhere other than 1B or DH, but he can still hit.
13. Duane Underwood - B - He's another high upside arm that is
finding success in Kane County. Control is still an issue, but other
issues seem to have been worked out.
14. Kyle Hendricks - B- - Hendricks projects to be a 3-5 starter, so his upside isn't huge, but he has the stuff that make you think that he has a very high floor. He may be up by the end of the season.
15. Jen-Ho Tseng - B- - Tseng is another pitcher that has dealt with minor injuries this year, but at the same time he's shown that he was worthy of being a top international prospect. He started and remains at Kane County, which, for a 19 year old kid, is very good.
16. Corey Black - B- - He was a C+, but he's pitched very well this year and has improved his outlook as a future starter. His control is a bit of an issue still, but he's still at AA and has time to fix that.
17. Gleyber Torres - B- - I'm going to be stretching a bit on this one and the next one, mainly because these guys are playing at a low level, and have small sample sizes. The only reason I'm putting Torres as the higher of the 2 is because his sample size is larger. Anyway though, in Arizona he's got a slash line of .325/.429/.450 with 2 stolen bases, a home run, and a triple in 40 at bats. He also has walked 8 times, which is a very good rate (and struck out the same number of times, another good rate). One of the reasons I feel comfortable putting him and #15 on here is because both are barely 17 years old, but were started in Arizona rather than in the DSL or VSL, that says a ton about both.
18. Eloy Jimenez - B- - I know, what a shock! Both his and Torres' grades could skyrocket very fast as they move up. In 14 at bats, his slash line is .429/.429/.929 with a home run, triple, and 2 doubles. He doesn't have any walks yet, but as much as you can knock the sample size for his slash line, you can also knock the sample size for him not having any walks. He has had a good start and has great upside.
19. Jeimer Candelario - B- - Candelario has had a tough year. He's still a 20 year old 3rd baseman playing at higher levels than his age would indicate he should be at, so he's still a good prospect, but everyone might have been just a little bit too high on him before the season.
20. Christian Villanueva - C+ - I really don't know what to make of him at this point. He's got a great glove, that's for sure, but he really struggled at AAA, went down to AA and starts to hit the cover off the ball again. He may just be a little further behind than initially thought. Another guy who is still a good prospect, but one we might have gotten a little too pumped for before the season.
Best of the Rest - Jacob Hanneman, Dillon Maples, Gioskar Amaya, Kevin Encarnacion, Ivan Pineyro, Rob Zastryzny, Matt Szczur, Josh Vitters, Eric Jokisch, Dallas Beeler, Shawon Dunston Jr, Jeferson Meija, Armando Rivero, Logan Watkins, Stephen Bruno, Dae-Eun Rhee, Michael Jensen, Felix Pena, Tyler Skulina, Juan Carlos Paniagua, Arodys Vizcaino, Mark Zagunis, Josh Conway, Tyler Ihrig, Kevonte Mitchell, Charcer Burks, Carlos Jimenez, Jose Paniagua, Oscar de la Cruz, Santiago Rodriguez, Luis Hidalgo, Wladimir Galindo, Jake Stinnett, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, James Norwood
That's 57 prospects worth keeping an eye on. Of course many of them will never see the big leagues, but it's still great to see so many great prospects for one organization. The best thing about it is that the team keeps looking deeper and deeper every week. This is a list that will probably grow as a lot of the draft picks (several are on the last part, I didn't want to rank them, but thought they should be mentioned) will get their playing time. Guys like some of those middle round tall pitchers and overslot guys have a good chance of getting on here. In other words, the Cubs are VERY deep in their system.
So, 2 guys added to the mix, why is that such a big deal? Because of where they are in the system. These are high level guys. Russell is a top 10 overall guy on almost any list, and McKinney is an organizational top 10 guy, top 5 in most organizations.
This was a trade that everyone won, and one that really sets the Cubs up for a great run in the not too distant future.
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