Thursday, July 24, 2014

Catching Up With the Cubs System Shuffle

Many Cubs fans are probably confused at this point as to where everyone should be. Sure, it's easy to tell where the big names are, but there's a whole lot more to it than that. Players were shipped up, down, and all around over this past week, and it's time to take a look at where they are and what it means for them and the organization, of course there will be a ton of speculating as well. I'm going to include a lot of content, and I'm sure there will still be things that I miss.

First, I'm going to put all of the moves in one place, and that's here. I will do it by who arrived at level and mention where each player came from as well.

Major League
Kyle Hendricks up from AAA
Tsuyoshi Wada up from AAA
Emilio Bonafacio up from AA (off of DL)

AAA
Jorge Soler up from AA
Mike Olt sent down from MLB

AA
 Albert Almora up from High A

High A
Jacob Hanneman up from Low A
Kyle Schwarber up from Low A
Juan Paniagua up from Low A

Low A
Jeffrey Baez up from Short Season A
Ben Wells up from Short Season A

Short Season A
Charcer Burks up from Arizona Rookie League

Arizona Rookie League
CJ Edwards up from DL 

Other
Darwin Barney DFA'd

Like I said before, I'm sure that there are a lot of guys missing there. However, that should be the vast majority and the ones that will make the biggest immediate impact. Hendricks has looked very good so far for the Cubs, especially if you toss out that first inning, where he was understandably jittery, you know, with the whole first big league inning and everything. Tsuyoshi Wada had one good outing before the All-Star break, but was a little more shaky last night, although a microscopic strike zone (for both teams) didn't really help anything. Bonifacio is up and the Cubs are hoping that he can perform and stay healthy, as he's probably their best trade piece at this point. If he's able to be traded, still don't expect for it to be anything very exciting. At best a high ceiling prospect in the very low minors. Lastly, Darwin Barney was DFA'd, which almost surely will end his time with the Cubs. It's sad to see him go, as on a personal level he was a great teammate and as true of a professional as you will ever find out there, and on the playing level he had such a great glove, but he just couldn't hit, and that was his ultimate undoing. Still, he will be missed and I wish him the best of luck. The Cubs still have some time to trade him (I'm thinking 6 or 7 days, 10 from when he was DFA'd), then he goes on waivers, and once he clears waivers (if he does, I doubt he will), he then can either accept a minor league assignment or will become a free agent.

So, looking at another move that had an impact on the big league team, Mike Olt was sent down to AAA. He supposedly has admitted that he had gotten into bad habits that he couldn't address at the big league level. Hopefully he's able to figure those things out and get back to that guy that we saw during spring training. Also arriving in AAA in a move that seems to have been made without anyone realizing it (yes, I'm joking) is Jorge Soler. This will give the Cubs a middle of the order group of Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Jorge Soler. That is something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy if he were a AAA pitcher. As I say that, Bryant and Soler just got hits, Valaika got on somehow, and Olt just hit a 3 run double. See what I mean? Anyway, that Iowa lineup may, at this point, be better than many MLB lineups, especially if you pretend like Alcantara is still there (he was just there a couple of weeks ago). Either way, that's a very good lineup.

AA, despite losing Soler, isn't looking bad either. Addison Russell is still there, and now he's joined by Albert Almora. Almora has been on fire over the last month or so, and if he's able to made a solid transition and stay somewhat hot, then that Tennessee lineup will still be tough to go up against. Charles Cutler continues to set that league on fire as well. Having Pierce Johnson back has been great for them, as he's been pitching great since coming back, and CJ Edwards should be back pretty soon as well.

Daytona just got a nice group of prospects as well. 2014 first round pick Kyle Schwarber is now up, and while he hasn't been hitting right away, it's too small of a sample size to really get any real information from yet. He should be able to do a good job against high A pitching. Jacob Hanneman was a very nice addition as well. He had a lull earlier in the year in Kane County, but outside of that he's been very good, showing decent power and stealing a lot of bases. Juan Paniagua was very solid in Kane County, and at 24 it was probably a good idea to go ahead and move him up to the next level. Remember that his production was somewhat stunted by a number of issues regarding legal status.

Since the Cougars lost Hanneman (among others), it's only fair that they get someone from Boise. Right now that someone is Jeffrey Baez. Baez isn't as intriguing as the guy with the same last name at Iowa, but he's still an intriguing prospect who shows signs of good power and good speed. At 20 years old, he's still young for low A, so he is progressing nicely and any struggles shouldn't be anything that brings up red flags. He started off hot the first few games in Boise, cooled off for a while, then caught fire again. That seems to be a common theme this year. Either way, in 38 games he hit 7 home runs and stole 15 bases. He has 30/30 potential, but a lot of it depends on how much power he winds up developing and if it comes at the cost of any speed, among all of the other things, of course. Ben Wells is another someone there. He was very solid in Boise and has the physical makeup of a very good pitcher. He's a high ceiling type of guy, and it's good to see him get towards that middle part of the system (I consider the 3 rookie teams and Boise to be the low part, Low and High A the middle part, AA and AAA the high part, and MLB the top). One more player could be coming (unless there's someone I missed. A couple of possible candidates could be Mark Zagunis, Chesny Young, and Rashad Crawford, among others, of course.

Boise wasn't forgotten when Jeffrey Baez was promoted. After losing him, Boise gained a Charcer Burks. Burks was very solid, if not very good in Arizona, and obviously the front office felt like he deserved the promotion, and I have no doubt that he did deserve the promotion. I just don't know barely anything at all about him right now. He hit over .300 and had stolen 9 bases in 19 games to go along with a home run, triple, and 4 doubles. Hopefully he keeps that up in Boise.

Lastly, the Arizona Rookie League gained one heck of an arm in CJ Edwards this week. He pitched two great innings last night, but don't get too excited for the fans in Arizona, he's only there on a sort of rehab assignment before going back up to AA. He was looking very good in AA before going down, and supposedly everything looked great last night. Hope he has a great and quick end to his recovery.

As for timetables, it's impossible to tell, but there's been a ton of speculation, and I'll continue to speculate. I have a feeling that Soler and Baez will both be up in September. There's no clock issues with Soler, so why not, and with Baez, he'll have a full season of AAA under his belt, and if he's not ready enough for it to be worth the clock, just start him at AAA next year until he is. However, I think he'll be fine, but what do I know. Either way, the chances of Bryant coming up this season are slim, but I guess you never say never. Almora's promotion at this point was a bit of a surprise to me, as was Soler's, so I really don't know for sure. For Almora it means that he could be less than 2 years from his first MLB at bat, which is great as well. As for Schwarber, it looks like he's going to possibly be fast tracked like Bryant was, but he's first going to have to show by the end of the season that he can hit high A pitching. Once he does, assuming he does, he can possibly start next season up at AA, which is exactly what Bryant did. I'm not necessarily saying that Schwarber is another Bryant, but more that he's going to have a similar timetable given his certain skills. Also, it's looking more and more like he could be a catcher when he comes up. That would really open things up to the Cubs to have one terrifying lineup in 2016 or 2017. If the DH comes into play it could be even better for the Cubs (although I am not a fan of bringing the DH to the NL). Either way, imagine a lineup like this:

LF: Arismendy Alcantara
CF: Albert Almora
1B: Anthony Rizzo
DH: Kris Bryant
RF: Jorge Soler
2B: Javier Baez
SS: Addison Russell
C: Kyle Schwarber
3B: Starlin Castro

Throw in a rotation consisting of CJ Edwards, Pierce Johnson, and Kyle Hendricks, along with a couple of free agents and whatnot. Of course, remember, this is completely fantasy, not all of these guys will, at very least, be as good as we feel they can be, and there's a chance that not all of them will even make it to the big leagues. Of course, in that case, there are guys like Dan Vogelbach, Rock Shoulders, Christian Villanueva, Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, and Jeimer Candelario who are all also solid prospects behind them. Still though, like I just said, this is fantasy. The bottom line though is that the Cubs have never had this many guys at this many positions, all at such similar ages. The front office is doing a great job at setting the big league level up for success. There is still a long way to go, but everything has been going great up to this point.

One thing I need to mention is that even the pitching is looking very solid at this point. The bullpen, is in pretty good shape right now, and can become even better in the next year or so, at the big league level. The hitting is obvious, so I won't bother with that, and the rotation actually has several key pieces. When I went over the guys above for the rotation, I didn't even mention Jake Arrieta. On top of that, Travis Wood could very easily have a bounce back year. Chances are, given his career, that this year is more of a fluke than the rest of his career has been. Sure, he's probably not a 1 or 2, but a 3-5 is very likely. Still, they have a group of pitchers who can become good big league pitchers, and in this year's draft they were able to draft a lot of very good pitching talent, and don't forget about the up and coming trio of Underwood, Blackburn, and Maples. Beyond that, Tseng is looking like a good prospect, and you can't forget about guys like Zastryzny, Meija, and several other guys. This really is about as deep as the organization has been in pitching since the days of Cruz, Zambrano, Prior, and Wood (over that period of time, Wood and Prior, for instance, were not in the minors at the same time, just that general period of time. If a third of the Cubs good looking arms come through, the Cubs are in very good shape as far as their pitching goes. While the exact moment isn't the best for Cubs fans, things are really looking for the future.

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