The exact date would be the Cubs of October 26, 2009 and before. October 27, 2009 is when the Ricketts family took over the Cubs. At that point it had only been 101 years since the Cubs last won a World Series. After this season, barring divine intervention (not the Slayer album), it's going to be 106 years. Fear not though Cubs fans, at very least, we can say that Ricketts (I'll just refer to Tom from here on out, since he's the figurehead) isn't doing things the way the Tribune did, and that's a very good thing.
Ricketts is someone who has been beaten relentlessly in the media over the last year or so. The rebuild that the Cubs are going through has really tested the patience of the fans, and unfortunately many of the fans don't have the mental toughness to go through with a rebuild. However, Ricketts has not wavered and has, along with the rest of the front office, stuck with the plan. However, despite this never happening before in the history of the team, people still seem to pull the old "It's still the Cubs" line. Well, it's not.
I've touched on this before, but now I'm really going to go into detail with it. Today's Cubs are completely different than the Cubs of the past, and by past it can go back all the way to 1876 or as recently as when Ricketts bought the team. Outside of the uniforms, the city, the field, and the team name, which make little to no difference, and even you can say the field is going to be debatable too (and only goes back to 1914), very little is the same since 2009. Going back further, not even the team name, uniforms, or field are even the same once you go far enough back.
However, let us start from the top. The personnel has very little in common with the past. First off, on the big league roster from 2009 was Jeff Samardzija, who is the only player left on the roster from that team. In 2009 he was a reliever who pitched a whopping 34.2 innings. Angel Guzman is back with the organization, but as the pitching coach of their Venezuelan rookie league team. Kevin Gregg was on last year's team, but was rejoining the team, and he is not on the current team. Carlos Marmol didn't finish last season with the team. Moving on, as far as the front office goes, Crane Kenney is the only person remaining from that front office, and his job doesn't even include doing anything as far as players go. His job is to handle the actual business aspect of the team, and to be totally honest, given the hurdles he has to leap, he does a great job.
So, in all reality, the only similarities from that 2009 team are Jeff Samardzija (who is now a starter throwing around 7x as many innings) and Crane Kenney, who has nothing to do with the players on the team and is instead of something the Cubs have always been successful in doing. So, the problem areas are all handled. However, what is being done to actually change the team, and how do we know that it will work out for the better?
Well, for starters, any great team has been built through the minor league system. Sure, there are teams who have come up and snagged a championship, only to fall back down in the following seasons. The 2005 Chicago White Sox, the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, and two different Florida Marlins teams. Wait a minute, the Marlins? Well, that was a team built through their minor league system, but in all fairness, it was a team that didn't have the money to sustain any success once those guys went elsewhere. Most of the other champions, even if they only won one, won them during a period of sustained success. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals had been built from within and had a very good 3 year run, and to be totally honest, I'll get to how that championship is pretty flukey later on (it should be obvious though). However, even that Phillies team of the late 00's only won one, but had a team that was a consistently strong team up until last year. The Red Sox of 2004 and 2007 were teams that were built under the model of sustained success, and I don't even need to get started on the Yankees, but I'll say a few words, Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettite, and Williams should suffice for now. If anyone tries to tell you that building a team through free agency is the best route to go (not saying that adding free agents is a bad idea, the Yankees did a lot of that too) then understand that the person talking to you is not informed enough, especially on the current collective bargaining agreement, to really be trusted in any sort of debate on how to build a championship team. If they try to say that you as a Cubs fan are not, remind them that the internet and television exist and that you're not blind to what other teams have done in the past.
So anyway, as I was saying, the Cubs have been building through the draft and minor league system. I will say that the first draft under Ricketts. Hayden Simpson was clearly a value pick that they hoped would surprise people, but after some serious health problems, any chance of that happening ended. Reggie Golden wasn't a horrible pick in the second round, but he had injury problems, and while hope isn't totally gone for him, he's looking like more of an athlete and less of a baseball player. There are some guys who can't be totally given up on still in the system from that draft, Matt Szczur, Eric Jokisch, Austin Reed, Matt Loosen, Dustin Geiger, and Dallas Beeler. However, none of those guys look to be major parts of a championship level team. Probably bullpen pitchers, Geiger might eventually be able to be a call up outfielder, and Szczur could be a good 4th outfielder, but that's it. However, since then things have been looking very good for drafts in the Ricketts era. 2011 saw Javier Baez, currently a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball and Dan Vogelbach, a complete powerhouse who is a top 100 prospect in baseball with the first two picks. After that guys like Shawon Dunston, Dillon Maples, and Rock Shoulders were drafted. Dunston looked very good in Kane County last year. Maples has one of those arms that has #1 potential, although he is still developing it and certainly no guarantee. Rock Shoulders is another guy that looks like a strong candidate to be a #4 outfielder on a good team, a starter on an average to above average team, even though that's no sure thing either. Let's remember that these guys really only have 2 1/2 years in the system so far, so some guys can rise, some can fall. However, getting Baez and Vogelbach has been huge for the Cubs. You get 2 big time prospects like that in every draft then you can replenish your team every 7 years as far as starters go, to put it in perspective. The 2012 draft looks just about as good, although we know even less than we do about the 2011 draft. Albert Almora is a top 20 prospect in all of baseball on most lists. Pierce Johnson seems to be anywhere from 40-75 on most lists of prospects, again, in all of baseball. Paul Blackburn had a very nice season in short season A ball at only 19 years old last season. Duane Underwood is another very high upside arm, although he's still going to have to develop, but he's only 19 right now, turns 20 in July. Those are just the high upside prospects right there, and like with 2011, there's chances for plenty to come up and others to fall. The 2013 draft is really hard to gauge right now, but Kris Bryant hasn't been. He's already anywhere from top 10 to top 20 as far as prospects go, and was the winner of the 2013 Arizona Fall League MVP award, which is a league littered with top prospects from different teams. Rob Zastryzny looked good in his work last year, and Jacob Hanneman, before injury ended his season a bit early, was looking very solid too. The biggest thing to look at here is that each year has seen the Cubs draft a potential superstar, and not just guys who were drafted high, so they were expected to do well, these are guys who have stood out at the minor league level at every step so far. Nobody is a sure thing before they hit the big leagues, and even then, a bad season can derail a career very quickly. However, with each step these guys take, the chances of them being able to be stars at the next level get better and better.
Beyond the draft, in the Ricketts era the Cubs have been aggressive in the international market as well. While he was signed shortly before the Ricketts took over, the biggest years of his development have come during the Ricketts era, but that's a different paragraph. Still, the Cubs signed two highly sought after international free agents just a couple of years ago in Gerardo Conception (who has had a slow start), and Jorge Soler, both 19 year olds that a lot of teams were after. Soler is another potential star in the Cubs system, in the top 50 on almost every top prospect list, as high as in the 20's, even after an injury shortened tough season last year. In the 2013 international signing period they found a loophole and exploited it to no end. In a strong international year they signed both of the top 2 international players as well as several other guys. So you can say you heard their names first, they are guys like Eloy Jimenez (#1) and Gleyber Torres (#2), as well as Jefferson Meija, Erling Moreno, and Jen-Ho Tseng. Obviously not all of those guys are going to be stars, and may not even all make it to the big leagues, but those were the top guys, and signing a lot of them gives the Cubs more chances at getting the right guy, in, again, a class that was seen as strong. Most of these guys are 16-17 as I type this, so it's hard to really get too good of a feel, and it's way too early to say much at all, but like I just said, part of the plan is to spend a lot of money in the minor leagues getting more and more chances so that they have a better and better chance to get a good player.
Past the international market and draft, the Cubs have built the system through trades as well. The trades didn't really get started until the 2012 season when the newly signed Paul Maholm was traded to the Braves with Reed Johnson for Arodys Vizcaino, a top pitching prospect, and Jaye Chapman (who is 26 and just had a terrible season in Iowa). Vizcaino, at very least, looks like he can be a very strong bullpen pitcher, but hope is not up on him being a starter, and his stuff is borderline 2/3 stuff at the big league if he does become a starter. Not long after it was a few months of Ryan Dempster and Geovany Soto to the Rangers for Kyle Hendricks and Christian Villanueva. Hendricks is coming off of a great season at AAA (ERA under 2.50), and Villanueva has seen his bat improve to be what looks like it can be a solid major league bat to go with probably the best third base glove in the minor leagues. While Villanueva likely won't see the field in a Cubs uniform, at least not much, he can be a valuable trade piece in a bigger deal once the Cubs are ready to contend. The Cubs made other very good trades to lose guys who would not be there when the Cubs are ready to contend. Holding on to those guys when you could dump them for guys who potentially could be there, or could get guys to be there when the Cubs are next ready to contend is a no-brainer. The crowning achievement is starting to look like the Matt Garza trade. In another trade with Texas the Cubs were able to get their current top pitching prospect, CJ Edwards, as well as possibly their next starting 3rd baseman, Mike Olt, for a few months of Matt Garza, a pitcher young enough, but with too much mileage on his arm to really be a sure thing to be a major part of the team in a couple of years. Beyond that, his price tag was going to be very high, and if he's not a sure thing and they can get a lot of quality for him in return, then do it. Well, CJ Edwards has given up 1 home run in 183.1 innings in his professional career so far. Olt was once a top prospect, but some eye troubles have knocked him back quite a bit. He claims the problems are over with, and if he's right, then this deal could wind up being a scary good deal for the Cubs. Justin Grimm and Neil Ramirez also came to the Cubs in the deal. Grimm is a pitcher with a big arm who had been struggling to put it together at the major league level, but can wind up being a good pitcher if someone does find out what to do with him. In 9 innings with the Cubs last year he gave up 2 earned runs. You should know what his ERA would be. Ramirez is in a similar situation, although last year was a pretty solid year at the AA level. He'll be starting this year at AAA. He's still being looked at a starter, and probably a back of the rotation starter, but still, possibly 2 rotation starters, a potentially strong bullpen pitcher, and a good 3rd baseman (who will probably wind up being traded himself, but hopefully will have better value when he is traded) for 3 months of one starting pitcher? Amazing. A few months of Scott Feldman (who had just been signed that offseason, and gave the Cubs a few good months on top of the trade) got the Cubs Pedro Strop and Jake Arrieta. Two huge arms that haven't lived up to their physical potential. Both were solid in their limited time with the Cubs last season.
Sure, there have been bad trades as well. They traded DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Colvin to the Rockies for Ian Stewart, who was horrible when he did play for the Cubs, was injured most of the time, then became a distraction. The good news for the Cubs is that Colvin and LeMahieu are really nothing to write home about. Neither is a future star, as both are at that age where they're probably as good as they'll wind up being. The jury is still out on the Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo deal, as it looked great for the Cubs early on, then Rizzo had a down year last year, but when you really look at it, he hit a ton of doubles, had a good home run total, walked a ton, played gold glove quality defense, and even stole some bases. He just had a low batting average. Cashner pitched well, but did not start the whole season. Injury issues will make him very questionable as far as starting goes for a while. Also on Rizzo, being totally unprotected in the lineup also hurt him a lot, as many of the best hitters in baseball are protected by another big hitter. Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are two of the best hitters in baseball, and both of them are well protected. It's something that makes a great hitter into a legend, and something that can make a good hitter in Rizzo (all around) into a great hitter. We'll see.
Now, why not build the team through free agency? Well, first off, the new collective bargaining agreement has a little thing in there that says that if you sign a free agent that was given a qualifying offer, assuming it's a free agent from a different team, then you give the team you signed that player from your first round draft pick (if it's a top 10 pick then it's the second round pick). Now, if you sign another player offered the QO from their team that offseason, then you give up the next draft pick. It's not a case of not having to give up picks after the first, it's every QO free agent costs a pick in that upcoming draft. This makes it incredibly difficult to maintain a strong team if you're giving up a first round pick every year. On top of that, most of the big name free agents are around the ages of 30-32. If you want a really big name, then you're going to have to offer a long contract. That means that the team will be paying huge money to a player as they go through ages 36-40. That's dead money on the books, think the years when Soriano was battling injuries with the Cubs. Beyond just that, it's much more expensive. When you bring guys up through your system you get the guy at dirt cheap for the first several years before going to arbitration. Even there you get a great deal on the guy, and at some point you can do what the Cubs did with Castro and Rizzo and sign them to a deal that is very team friendly going into the future. Now, there's always the chance that the player regresses, but you can get a player for 10 years through your system at a fraction of the cost that it would take to get a player through free agency. The Yankees are a rare case as a team that could afford a $200 million payroll, and not even the Yankees can afford that now due to the luxury tax.
Anyway, one way I can see the Cubs finding a bit of a loophole is by signing a bunch of good free agents, maybe, if available, a #1 type pitcher as well as a couple of other good starters as well as even maybe a good position hitter all in one offseason. That way they may give up 3-5 draft picks, but they're all in one year, and they could even possibly be 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round guys if the Cubs have a top 10 pick in that next year's draft. Just a possibility that I thought I would throw out there.
So, you have the players, but 75% of the player's success is based on the player themselves, the other 25% is on the people developing that player (a percentage that can go up when you consider how those developing the player can really shape who the player is on the field). First off, I should have mentioned earlier, the Cubs signed a new head of scouting in Jason McLeod, and really boosted the scouting staff. Theo Epstein was quoted as saying that he was shocked at how small the scouting department was. Well, as I said, that changed big time. Not only that, but they went through and really evaluated the minor league staff. They signed all new guys with a good history of developing minor league talent. The biggest name was Derek Johnson, who had performed miracles developing pitchers at Vanderbilt previous to taking the position with the Cubs. So far his work has been very solid, as there haven't been any pitchers who have taken a real step back under his guidance. There were a few that took a step back before he came, and few, if any, have been able to recover, but those who came in around the same time or since Johnson came around have developed well, although some could be better. Still, it's impossible to get them all, none have. Johnson has done a very good job so far. The Cubs have spent more on their minor league staff, but they have also picked up guys who know how to develop players, which is very important.
Not only is it with the players and the coaches, but the new owners, while I'm one of those who wish they would have just built a new park in the suburbs, are also renovating Wrigley Field. This is something that the naysayers will try to minimize the importance of, but it's something that was badly needed. I mean, they had to put nets up just to catch the falling rubble from the stadium. The clubhouse was horrible outdated, they don't even have a batting cage down there. Of course the naysayers will bring this to the jumbotron, which I am all for, especially after seeing how tastefully it will be put in, but there is a whole lot more to it, and many of those things are things are very important. Having more late afternoon and night games is nice as well, although I think the effect of it on the players has been overstated, but it can't hurt anything. I work all day, and I'd rather the games be on later so that I can actually see them. Anyway, this isn't nearly as big as the players and the overall philosophy of the organization, but it's still something that had to happen.
Now, this isn't the first time the Cubs have had a top system. In the early 2000's they had a top system when they had the #1 system (2000). In 2003 they had the #3 system. Of course Mark Prior was a major reason for that, as the #2 prospect in baseball around then. Juan Cruz was another top prospect (he seemed on the right path until the Cubs stupidly put him in the bullpen instead of Jason Bere). Also, Hee-Seop Choi was a top prospect, and he netted the Cubs a pretty darn good player in Derek Lee. Another prospect, Bobby Hill (along with Jose Hernandez), got the Cubs Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in 2003. So, despite scouting being so much more advanced now, and the Cubs not having prospects like THAT in 2002 and 2003 on the offensive side of the ball (Cubs prospects are probably the best offensively in all of baseball right now), they still managed to have a few very good teams from that group.
The biggest difference now is that the Cubs have built depth. Past those top guys in 2002 and 2003, there wasn't a whole lot. Top organizations were ranked by their top prospects almost entirely back then. Now they're ranked 20-30 prospects deep. This is because as time has passed, the evaluators have realized how many prospects don't perform at the top level and how important it is to have that next guy able to step up and be a better player. The Cubs have done a phenomenal job at this. In John Sickels' rankings that I went over earlier, the Cubs had 21 guys that were C+ guys or better. Of their C guys (16 of those), 4 of them were guys who were signed in that international class (too young or not enough experience to really know on them), and several were either 20 or younger or had just been drafted in 2013. There were some of the guys who didn't look like they could be better than average players (Brett Jackson, Logan Watkins, Eric Jokisch, and Dallas Beeler). In other words, if you're familiar with the Sickels system, there are a lot of guys who could wind up being B or better guys, but we just don't know enough about them to put them up there. Considering that 4 of those guys were JUST signed on the international market and had no experience that anyone knew of, that says a lot for what he thought of those guys. The bottom line is that the Cubs are preparing for the current wave of big prospects to go through, and in a couple of years there will be more coming through. The prospects that don't make it can be replaced by other guys coming up, or be traded for even better players for the team.
That is the biggest change. The depth of the minor league system. The Tribune Company never was willing to put a whole lot into the minor league system. They'd get some high draft picks after some bad years and ride that for a bit, but they never really built a system. Now they have that built. That means that it won't be the end of the world if one of their prospects doesn't pan out. Instead of resting on the draft picks and occasionally signing international players, now they're putting a lot into the international market as well as maximizing the assets that they do acquire in the trade market. If a guy's not going to be part of the future with the team, why hold on to them and get nothing for them in the future?
Of course, I do need to say that these moves are a product of what Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have done with the team. Also due to the scouting of Jason McLeod. Tom Ricketts has actually done a great job of keeping himself out of the baseball part and letting Theo take over. I would have said that the previous ownership would have never gone after a guy like Theo Epstein, but they did with Andy McPhail being the biggest name they did grab. However, once fans started to grumble during what wasn't even a full rebuild, ownership told him to start spending, and they got one playoff team out of it. 1999 wasn't a year when the FO mailed it in, but the Cubs were still horrible, so that's how Mark Prior wound up going to the Cubs. Anyway, McPhail was soon run out of town. Epstein, on the other hand, was given, as promised, a full chance to do a complete rebuild for the Cubs. The difference between Epstein and past GMs for the Cubs is that Epstein's actually able to do everything he said he would do. He admitted that it would be a slow process. Everything he's said would happen, up to this point, has happened. Personally, if the plan that was outlined over 2 years ago does fall through, then I'll start to question things, but everything has gone exactly as he has said so far, so there's no reason to panic. Anyway, more of the point here is that it is Ricketts who has given Epstein the freedom to do this complete rebuild. The Tribune Company wasn't anywhere near as generous to their GMs and Team Presidents. Ricketts is taking a ton of heat for it, but the bottom line is that he's someone else who can see the big picture and understands what's going on.
The bottom line is that the Cubs are in territory that is totally uncharted for this franchise, they're actually going through with a complete rebuild, building up the organization for the future. They're not worried about making today's product overly interesting, which is frustrating at the current time, but for anyone who can see the big picture, it does look like it will be worth it. The Cubs have stockpiled prospects, and seeing them with 7 top 100 prospects and others ready to jump into that group, the Cubs are doing the right thing to build an organization that will be able to compete for a very long time in the future. It goes beyond just who is there to how the entire organization is structured and even into the ballpark itself. Of course none of these guys are proven yet, but things look better and better as these guys move up. That's how winning franchises are built.
The playoffs are a complete crapshoot. Look at the Braves, they went into the playoffs for over a decade and only got one World Series out of it. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, in 2006, were the worst team in the playoffs, without a doubt. They were barely .500 in the worst division in baseball, but when it came to the playoffs, they were the team that played the best. It doesn't mean that they were actually the best team in baseball that year, but they were champions. The more a team gets into the playoffs, especially consecutively, the better their chance is of winning it all, because anything can happen in the playoffs. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it gives the team their best chance of being champions. While I want more than just one championship, I'd still be happy with one. However, the team is built to give themselves more than just one chance, which is what they were doing before.
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