Thursday, February 20, 2014

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects

Baseball America just released their list of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Chicago was, to say the least, well represented on this list. For most lists I really wouldn't bother, but Baseball America is one of the bigger places to go for anything baseball, and their team usually does a very good job in ranking prospects. Therefore I will go over each of the Chicago players or future players and my thoughts on their inclusion among other things. The full article from Baseball America can be found by clicking here.

5. Javier Baez

Behind only Buxton, Bogaerts, Taveras, and Tanaka (who is being pretty liberally listed as a prospect, as well as someone else who will be mentioned later is). With a bat as quick as his, he is often considered to be the top offensive prospect in baseball. Many forget that Baez has plenty of speed as well. His defense is a bit of a concern, but you can find plenty of guys who wound up being solid defenders who committed just as many errors at his age. People forget way too often how young Baez still is. Either way, it's exciting to see him consistently getting as much praise as he has been getting from everyone.

8. Kris Bryant

The Cubs have 2 of the best offensive prospects in the league. Bryant's power is absolutely obscene, and like Baez, there are some questions with his glove. However, those questions are more based on his ability to stick at third on defense. Good for the Cubs though is that those questions seem to be pretty well answered for the near future, as anyone who has watched him has talked about how much more athletic he looks than they expected. On top of that, there is a decent chance that the Cubs will have to knock someone out of the infield and into the outfield to play left or right (Soler playing the other position). So if he does have to go to the outfield, the Cubs may very well not have to worry since it will be to keep the maximum number of good offensive players in the lineup. Bottom line though is that Bryant's pure power and overall ability to hit are very exciting tools.

28. CJ Edwards

Edwards has been all over prospect charts, so it's nice to see him so high on this one. There is no doubting that he has a ton of skill, but the question is based on his frame. He's a very skinny person with some, but not a whole lot of room to fill out. That being said, he would be far from the first small pitcher who had a great career if he did. Pedro Martinez is a great recent example. Still though, seeing someone with more confidence in him is great. Personally, I think the Cubs committed complete robbery when they got him in the Garza deal, but still, he has a while to go before he hits the bigs, so we'll have to wait and see.

29. Jose Abreu

The White Sox make their first appearance in a big way. Over the last day or two I've done a lot of reading up on Abreu, and it seems like he does have a bit of a weakness on the inside of the plate, but as a whole he is looking to be a huge bat in the middle of the White Sox lineup this coming season. He was who I was talking about earlier as being someone else who the term prospect is used pretty liberally on. Technically both him and Tanaka are prospects, as they're on rosters, but have never played a single game at the big league level. Anyway, signing Abreu was by far the biggest offseason move the White Sox made. If it winds up being the best has yet to be seen, but Baseball America clearly thinks it will be, as do I.

36. Albert Almora

Almora is someone else who has been all over the board. Some have had him as high as the top 10, and some have gone as low as the 40's. His hit tool seems to be very good. His speed isn't great, but also isn't a liability in center field. His power looks to be reasonable, but nothing spectacular. He seems to have those extra intangibles as well though that are really what seem to separate players once they hit the big leagues. The leadership abilities and his love for the game have been greatly praised on many lists.

41. Jorge Soler

Soler has been a bit lower on many lists than he was a year ago. The bat incident as well as the perception by some that he doesn't play hard have really hurt him. What those with the perception that he doesn't play hard don't realize is that he was told by the Cubs to not run out ground balls during the AFL. They also seem to forget that when that league started, everyone else was coming off of their full season (well, the vast majority were), and Soler was in his first action in several months after dealing with a stress fracture that prematurely ended his season. As the league went on he was clearly getting better and better. Even when he got off to his rocky start he was still getting a hit in almost every game, just not multiple hits. As for the bat incident, it was absolutely inexcusable on his part, even if he had no intent to hit anyone with it and was just trying to scare them, you just can't do that. Having said that, it was a one time incident. One time can be forgiven. A second time, assuming it's something lighter and doesn't come for a couple of years, can be forgiven. However, if a pattern develops, that's when it's time to worry. However, Soler's physical skills, his massive power, his surprisingly good speed (for a guy his size), and his powerful throwing arm are way too much to ignore.

63. Erik Johnson

Johnson has started 5 games for the White Sox, so this is another prospect that is generously called a prospect. However, that doesn't diminish his ability to play. Johnson was very respectable when he pitched last year, with an ERA of 3.25 (in the American League and at US Cellular), to give him an ERA+ of 133. In the minors he absolutely tore apart every level outside of the rookie league in 2011. Johnson should continue to be a strong mid-rotation level pitcher for a long time.

72. Matt Davidson

Yet another player with experience at the big league level on the list. With Davidson it's only 87 total plate appearances, but he's still had some time up in the bigs. His batting average was low, but his OBP was about 100 points higher. He not only has a good eye, but he also has pretty solid power as well. Even if he winds up hitting in the .240's, he'll still probably be able to provide around 20-25 home runs, and as mentioned before, can get on base.

87. Pierce Johnson

Johnson is right up there with Edwards on a lot of lists. Baseball America doesn't seem to be nearly as high on Johnson as many others are. Durability seems to be Baseball America's biggest worry despite him having a completely healthy year last year. Still, Johnson is another guy who has very good stuff, like Edwards, but is pretty lanky, like Edwards. Johnson does have a bit of an injury history going back to college, but there was nothing too severe in there that has me worried about his long-term outlook.

91. Marcus Semien

Semien is, at very least, a great utility type of player that any team would love to have. However, his ability to play 3rd, short, or 2nd can very likely find him an every day spot in the White Sox lineup. It depends on who leaves first, but since Davidson is expected to have the 3rd base spot, it looks like it will either be Ramirez or Beckham, although Tim Anderson could make things more interesting in a few yers.

100. Arismendy Alcantara

You aren't the only person surprised to see Alcantara so low on this list. Personally, I didn't expect to see him in the top 50, but I thought with all of the love everyone else is giving him, that he would still be in the top 70. I don't know if they really took into account that Alcantara played a huge portion of last year at second base, as that was one of the things that they brought up. One reasonable thing to bring up on him is that he's had one very good season, and before that he was solid, but nothing special. However, his average was always pretty solid on his way up, and his OBP is something that can be maintained. His power was good, but it wasn't his strongest trait, so it's not like it will make or break him. Still, 15 home runs last season is nothing to sneeze at.

So there you have it, 11 of the top 100 prospects, according to Baseball America, are from either the Cubs or the White Sox. That's a very nice number to see. When you consider that there are 30 teams in the league, both teams have above their share of prospects there, and that's never a bad thing.

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