There isn't a better way to say it, Cubs win! Jon Lester made his decision shortly after midnight this morning, about 17 1/2 hours ago. It was an interesting situation for me, as I had been following it on Bleacher Nation, and had all but given up on a decision before going to sleep. Right before laying my head down for the night, I decided to check one more time on my iPad, and lo and behold, less than a minute before I had checked he had made that decision. Needless to say, my bedtime went back about 2 hours and I enjoyed a beer to celebrate. So anyway, let's look at everything this says for the Cubs next year.
First off, this is easily the biggest move made so far this offseason in baseball. Lester is not only a top of the rotation starter, he's a lefty, a cancer survivor, a great person, and a great clubhouse influence. On top of all of that, the Cubs get a top of the line free agent without having to give up a draft pick. This isn't something that even happens every offseason. The current CBA says that if a player is offered a qualifying offer and turns it down, then any team that signs them in free agency has to give up their first round draft pick. The only exception is if it's a top 10 pick in the first round. Those teams give up their second round pick. However, in order to offer a player a qualifying offer, the player has to have played a full season for that team. Lester had played about half a season for the A's, so he was not eligible to even receive a qualifying offer. Therefore, the Cubs hit on the rare big time free agent, who isn't all that old (he's currently 30), and that they can get without giving anything other than money up. That right there is pretty amazing.
Another thing that I'll bring up before really getting into the on the field aspect is that if you still doubt Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, take your hand, and slap yourself across the face with it. Looking at what they've done just in the last 5 months is unbelievable. First off, let's look at the trade from the 4th of July. The Cubs gave up Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, and in return received Addison Russell (a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball), Billy McKinney (a top 10 prospect in possibly the best and deepest system in baseball), and Dan Straily (okay, well, not too much exciting here). They also are still waiting on a player to be named later, although, I doubt it turns into anything, especially given this paragraph. Okay, so let's fast forward to today. The Cubs still have all of those 3 guys, but on top of that, they also have gotten Jason Hammel back on the team, and they've upgraded on Samardzija by signing Lester away from Oakland. I mean, seriously, is that not some of the best front office work we've seen in a long time? If you still have your doubts, then you're just clueless. Getting an all-star catcher, who is one of the best defensive catchers, for two low level minor league arms is another great move.
So anyway, obviously the biggest thing to look at is the starting rotation. The 1 through 4 starters on the Cubs combined, in 99 starts last season, for a 2.74 ERA. Lester's was 2.46, Arrieta's was 2.53, Hammel's was 3.47 (outside of July it was 2.82), and Hendricks' was 2.46. The 5th starter spot is going to be any of Travis Wood, Felix Doubront, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dallas Beeler, Zac Rosscup, Dan Straily, Jacob Turner, or Edwin Jackson. Unless they sign another starter, then it's going to be one of those 8. While I don't see any of them being a superstar, I do like the chances of one of those guys to become a solid #5 starter. Wada certainly looked good enough to be a solid #5 last year. Doubront did as well, although he did have one bad outing. I'm going to go over Travis Wood in the next paragraph, but there's reason to believe he can have a big bounce back year next year. I still like Beeler, especially at Wrigley. His only bad outing was far from a disaster, and featured a lot of just plain bad luck. Dan Straily and Jacob Turner are both intriguing, as they both should have the stuff, but still need to put it together. When you're talking about a #5 starter, there's some good options there.
Another move that I'm going to allude to here is the trade for Montero. Montero is one of the better defensive catchers in baseball, and he's one of the very best at framing pitches. One of Castillo's biggest weaknesses is framing pitches. He's actually quite good everywhere else, carrying a good bat for a catcher, and outside of the pitch framing he's a good defensive catcher. However, pitch framing can make a huge difference in any given at bat. Now, first off, Lester isn't a pitcher that depends on velocity, although his fastball isn't bad at all, so having a catcher that can frame pitches is nice for someone like him to have. However, the big change I expect is with guys like Travis Wood. Wood has an underwhelming fastball and really depends on location for his pitches. Sure, sometimes the control will be bad enough that you can't frame it, but he needs every strike call he can get. If Montero can get him some extra strike calls every start, it could be enough to knock a whole run or more off of his ERA. A single strike can really change the course of an at bat, and can be the difference between a bases clearing RBI double and a strikeout very easily. I'm not saying that this will completely change Wood, but it gives him a very good opportunity to rebound next season. Of course, he will have to go up against all of those other guys, who will also benefit from Montero as well.
Thanks to the signing of Lester, the Cubs are able to have this great problem where they'll have to choose one out of eight guys, and they may have some very good options. Of course there could be other trades, but let's remember that if you get a #5 starter with an ERA under 4.50, that's pretty nice.
The signing of Lester also shows that the Cubs are going to be looking to win fast. Many of those #5 options that they have may be attractive to other teams looking to fill out their rotation. They also have Wellington Castillo, who will likely be trade bait, and will certainly be if they sign David Ross. They also have that loaded farm system to use for trades. Guys like Billy McKinney, Dan Vogelbach, Albert Almora, Victor Caratini, Jeimer Candelario, Eloy Jimenez, Jen-Ho Tseng, Gleyber Torres, Corey Black, Paul Blackburn, and Bijan Rademacher are top 10 prospects in many systems. There's a ton of guys the Cubs can trade, and on top of that, if they're willing to eat the money in the contract of the person they trade for, they usually have to give up less to get the guy. I have a feeling that the Cubs are not done yet with major offseason moves. I'm not saying there will be a blockbuster move, but I feel good about them making another strong move to improve the current team. Of course, I forgot about Logan Watkins and Luis Valbuena above. At least Valbuena is someone that other front offices have plenty of interest in.
Anyway, this is a great move for the Cubs and will really bring them a lot right off the bat. The Cubs are really making the right moves to move forward and not only become a competitor by 2015 (assuming they're not done), but also become a consistent force for years to come.
No comments:
Post a Comment