So Javier Baez has now played one full series as a player in the MLB. I don't know if I've ever seen a player show both so much good and so much bad in their debut series, but then again, this is the first Cubs debut series from a top prospect that I've seen since Felix Pie, and Pie never was ranked above #27 as a prospect, so Baez is still an entirely new territory that Cubs fans haven't seen since the Patterson and Prior debuts. This was a very interesting series for the Cubs.
So, first things first, the series in itself has been a crazy one. It's in Colorado, so right away you know that there are crazy things that are going to happen. Not only is there the thin air up there, but the park is absolutely huge. That means that the outfield is huge. Len and JD made many references during the games to how singles turn into doubles, and doubles turn into triples there. That means that hitters who make good contact and have decent line drive rates should be able to play well there.
So what does that mean for Baez? Well, the big question is if any of his three home runs in this series would have been home runs in other parks, most notably Wrigley Field, which is obviously where he will be making his home. The first thing to look at is Wrigley Field itself. Before that, we'll need to use Coors field to gauge how well hit his home runs were. The corners are 347 to left and 350 to right. Straight up left field is 390, and right is 375. Left center is 420, right center 424, and straightaway center is 415. To see the park and it's dimensions, and my source, click here. As for Wrigley, on the other hand, is 355 to left and 353 to right in the corners. Straight left is 357 and straight right is 363. Left center is 368, as is right center. Center field is 400. The big difference between the two is the wall at Coors field is 8' tall from the left field corner to right center. At the scoreboard it goes up to 14' to the right corner. At Wrigley field the wall is 11'6" from left center through right center and is 15' at the corners. While that's only a few feet, if the ball is a line drive home run, it can add another 10-15 needed feet for a home run. At the same time, fly ball home runs will go further in Colorado since that's where the thin air really shows itself more.
All three of Baez's home runs were of the fly ball variety. So he did gain an advantage playing in Colorado. The only one I know the distance of was his first one, and that one was about 415' to right. That one is out at any ballpark, as the thin air likely really doesn't add any more than about 7% to the flight of a ball (in comparison to sea level), so that one's still going at least 386 feet, and again, that's at sea level. Chicago is at 579' above sea level, so really about 6.5% would be a better measurement when talking about Wrigley, and that brings it up to 388 feet, so it's still a very impressive home run anywhere. The first one today was a fly ball to left. This is one is questionable, as it seemed to clear the fence by a good 15 feet, and the left corner is 8 feet shorter than at Wrigley. I'm going to say it probably doesn't go out at Wrigley, but it's close. However, with that, I'll say that his first at bat probably does see a home run, as it was hit about 390', but to a part of the park that was about 400'. At Wrigley field that part of the park is closer to 360'. As for the last home run, it was very similar to his first one, and that one is probably out in just about any park in baseball. So, no matter how you look at it, he has at least 3 home runs if those at bats play out the same way at Wrigley Field. That single he hit is one where it doesn't make a difference.
As for the bad on offense, he was wild in his swinging. He seemed to settle down a bit as the series went on, despite a couple of bad at bats early in the second game. However, it's obvious that he's going to try to play the hero on a regular basis, and hopefully that is something that dies down a bit as his career goes on. Also, his swing is very violent. In fact, I'm actually worried about him having back problems later in his career with how he swings. He uses every muscle in his body and twists violently, which can't be good for his back. At times he looked like Junior Lake at the plate, but it was clear by the end of the series that he has a much better ability to make regular contact. He'll clearly have plenty of growing pains throughout the early point of his career on offense, but at the same time I can see him getting past those and becoming a very good player as his career goes on.
Defense is tougher to say. He made some very nice plays and clearly has an absolute gun for an arm. He did flub that one play in his first game, but other than that he actually looked pretty good. Throughout the year his defense has looked much improved. He had 13 errors at shortstop at AAA and 2 at 2B. Those are not great, but both are much better than how he looked last season at high A and AA. I think he'll wind up working out very nicely in the field if he continues this upward trajectory at all.
So, without overdoing anything (except for that whole home run thing), Baez has looked solid so far. It's a very small sample size, so we won't have a really good idea as to what to expect from him even next season yet, but so far pretty good, although there are still a lot of red flags with him. Hopefully once he gets some coaching he's able to work on those issues and grow as a player. Once the pitchers figure him out, hopefully he will be able to adjust to what they do.
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