Before reading this article, I will direct you here. That link is an article from bleachernation.com that was written this morning. The line for Bryant there was .349/.452/.667. For those who are new to baseball or who are not baseball fans, let me put that in simple terms. Kris Bryant is absolutely mutilating AA pitching right now, and that's an understatement. There's a lot that can be taken from this though, in a bonus 2 posts in 1 day from me.
Okay, if you read the article I linked you to up there, you'll realize that before tonight's game, Bryant's numbers had him with the highest batting average in the Southern League by a whopping 20 points. Not only that, but his 15 home runs were the most by 5. His .452 OBP was the most by 18 points, his .667 slugging% was the most by a massive 130 points, and his 1.119 OPS was the most by an equally massive 177 points. Those are all straight from the article linked above. Also, just visit bleachernation.com as much as you can, it's a great blog that keeps an intelligent rather than overly optimistic or pessimistic view of things. If you think it's too much of either one, then the problem is probably with you, because Brett is always quick to point out a small sample size either way, and he always goes by the straight facts.
Anyway, on to tonight. Bryant had a decent game by his standards. In 5 plate appearances he went 1 for 4 with a walk, strikeout, and his 16th home run in a 4-3 loss. To put it into perspective as far as his season numbers go, that will make his home run total obviously go up, but his OBP and batting average will take slight hits (average being .250 for the game and OBP being .400 for the game), his batting average dropping 2 points to a horrible .347 (yes, I'm being sarcastic). However, his slugging percentage will go up a bit (1 for the game). I'm not positive what the exact numbers will be, but the OPS won't see a huge difference given that the slugging percentage went up and the OBP went down. Either way, a 1 for 4 with a home run and walk is usually a great game for anyone. However, when you look at what Bryant has done this season, it's right about average.
Now, thanks to an incredibly stupid question that was posed on Sports Talk Live in Chicago a couple weeks ago, I am going to compare Bryant to Jose Abreu. The question that was posed was if any of the Cubs big 4 could be as good as Jose Abreu. The reason this question was so stupid mainly goes to the fact that the Cubs big four are all much younger than Abreu, who is in his prime right now. Bryant is 25 days old of being 5 years younger than Abreu and is the oldest of the Cubs big 4. Jorge Soler is the next youngest at about 5 years and a month (4 days short of a month actually) younger than Abreu, and Soler, when healthy, has been great as well, but he's had some hamstring issues this year, I've never heard of a baseball career being cut short by tweaked hamstrings. Anyway, the question itself was completely unfair given that, and also given that there was little to no scouting on Abreu going into this season, and that while it was posed to try to make Abreu look good (and he has, anyone who's read this blog before knows that I'm a huge fan of Abreu), Bryant's AA numbers are absolutely blowing Abreu's numbers away. Not just that, but it's arguable as to if Abreu is even better than Rizzo, all things considered (defense and offense). Not to forget that Bryant is athletic enough to play third, first, or either of the corner outfield spots, even though his current position is third while Abreu is strictly a first baseman.
Anyway, let's go into those numbers. Abreu's slash line right now is .260/.312/.595. Despite the low average, that's a great line. Bryant's before tonight was .349/.452/.667. OPS for the two are .908 for Abreu and 1.119 for Bryant. In 189 plate appearances and 173 at bats, Abreu has 50 strike outs and 10 walks with 15 home runs. In 221 plate appearances and 186 at bats, Bryant has 60 strike outs and 30 walks to go with 16 home runs. The differences in at bats and plate appearances are not huge there, so let's go with percentages. Going by plate appearances, Abreu's percentages are 26.5% for strikeouts, 6% walks, and 8% for home runs. Going by at bats that's 28.9%, 5.8%, and 8.7% in the same order. The strikeout percentage, no matter how you look at it is very high. The walk percentage is pretty low, and the home run percentage is very high. Now, for Bryant, for plate appearances, again, in the same order, are 27.1%, 13.6%, and 7.2%. Going by at bats (again, same order), that's 32.3%, 16.1%, and 8.6%. The only difference as far as them being high or low is that Bryant has a high walk rate while Abreu doesn't.
Now, it's time to figure out which percentages mean more by at bats or plate appearances. For strikeouts I feel like it's fair to go by plate appearances, as many high strikeout guys are the type that build a deep count. For walks, it's obvious to me that it should also go by plate appearances, as walks themselves don't even add an at bat. As far as home runs go though, I always go by at bats, as intentional walks or pitchers pitching around a batter won't always give a batter a fair chance to hit a home run. Even in cases when they swing and either get out or get a non-home run they'll often not necessarily be given a fair chance, as a pitcher may even be trying to pitch around them.
So, going by that, Abreu's percentages are 26.5% SO, 6% W, and 8.7% HR. For Bryant it's 27.1% SO, 13.6% W, and 8.6% HR. The first thing you should mention is how close those numbers are. Bryant is striking out just a bit more, walking more than twice as much, and is .1% (or .001) down on home runs. Let's remember the slash lines are .260/.312/.595 with a .908 OPS for Abreu and .349/.452/.667 with an OPS of 1.119 for Bryant. Further analyzing things, one stat that I like to keep track of myself is a player's batting average minus their SO%, as well as their OBP minus SO%. For Abreu that's -.005% and .047. For Bryant it's .078 and .181. That tells how much more you can expect someone to get a hit or get on base than you can expect them to strike out. In other words, Abreu has a .5% larger chance to strike out than he has of getting a hit and a 4.7% higher chance of getting on base than he does of striking out. For bryant it's a 7.8% larger chance of getting a hit than striking out and an 18.1% higher chance of getting on base than he has of striking out. I only bring this in because strikeouts are one of the biggest reasons for a player not getting a runner to their next base. Of course double plays and pop ups are also there, but strikeouts are the most common reason.
Going over all of the numbers, the obvious edge goes to Bryant, but you have to take into account level and age. Bryant is at AA where pitchers have that MLB stuff, but don't have the polish of MLB pitchers. At AAA is where the pitchers may have the MLB polish, but just don't have the MLB level stuff for a large part. Anyway, Bryant's biggest issue is his strikeouts. While it's no sure thing by any means, a player's ability to make contact is usually something that comes more with age. Abreu is about as good as he'll be at that. Sure, he can still improve some, but he's mostly where he'll be there. With Bryant, he's 22, he's got a lot of learning to do there. Rather he does or not has yet to be seen, but seeing his progression so far, it's more likely than not that he does figure it out as he goes along, and that he's seeing pitchers right now that do indeed have very good stuff. Abreu is seeing the pitchers right now that have major league stuff and major league polish, but he's also at an age where he is in the prime of his career. Given that he is very experienced, the room for growth is much smaller with him than it is with Bryant. However, Abreu is there right now. Still, the numbers for Bryant are very convincingly better than they are for Abreu at the plate, and given that he can play 4 positions in the field vs Abreu being a 1B/DH guy, this also gives Bryant a good edge.
In the end, we don't know what will happen with Bryant. We could see him fall flat on his face at AAA and never even have a big league at bat, even though at this point that's highly unlikely. Still, if that question I mentioned earlier was asked to me, my answer would be that I think Kris Bryant will be better than Jose Abreu. He's just doing too much at such a young age, even if it is at a lower level, he's not even facing competition at this point while Abreu's average shows that he is, although at a higher level. I'd also mention that you can't count out Soler, Baez, and Almora, and that 4 is greater than 1. As well as Abreu has played, Bryant looks like he has the makings of one of the next great hitters in all of baseball. Baez may wind up as one of the best too, but he's reminding me a lot of Ryne Sandberg with how Sandberg would always start so slowly. Maybe Baez will start to get going earlier and earlier as he grows, he's just a little over 21 right now himself, the youngest player in the PCL. As for Albert Almora, he just turned 20 last month, so there is a very long way to go with him as well.
The bottom line is that with all the hype going around Jose Abreu, the Cubs have 4 guys in their system who may be able to produce just as much hype, if not more, at a younger age than Abreu. Abreu is a great player and will be a huge asset to the White Sox for a very long time, but the hype is a bit high right now, especially when you, again, bring up the lack of scouting on him. He kills mistakes, much like Bryant, but that will likely be his biggest calling card going forward while the Cubs big 4 all have the chance to be more than that. White Sox fans should be excited about the team's future, but Cubs fans should be even more excited. With less than 2 weeks to go until the draft, the Cubs and White Sox will both have a lot of possible options including Carlos Rodon, Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek, Aaron Nola, Nick Gordon, and Alex Jackson. There are going to be plenty of prospects for each team to pick from. The Cubs are going to have such a strong group of minor league guys, really a couple of waves if they pick a high school guy, given last year's international signees, and the White Sox are either going to have a strong current young group, or a good current young group to go along with at least something coming in the future. While now isn't the best time to be a Chicago baseball fan, in a couple of years Chicago will be the center of the baseball universe.
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