Thursday, March 6, 2014

Evaluating The Bears Offseason Before Free Agency

Free agency starts on Tuesday, March 11. That's only 5 days from this post. The Bears have been re-signing a lot of their players before this starts, to make sure that they don't lose those guys, and they've also made it clear that there are other guys who they will not attempt to hold on to. I will go over what the Bears have done so far and give my thoughts on that. So far there isn't a whole lot to go over, but the main goal here is to see where the team stands going into free agency, and after that, the draft.

The biggest recent re-signing was a very recent one. Bringing back Jeremiah Ratliff was a huge move for the Bears. He did an excellent job once he had a couple of games last season, and having him at a position that was a problem for the Bears last year is something that will be very nice. Now, I'm going to go off on a bit of a tangent here, I've heard people grumble about the Bears bringing back people who were on last year's poor defense. However, let's get this straight, the people the Bears are bringing back are not the people who were the problem. By bringing back, I mean people who were straight up re-signed. Kelvin Hayden didn't even play a snap in the regular season due to injury, Ratliff didn't show up until late, and when he did show up the run defense improved. Tim Jennings was a Pro Bowler, so he clearly wasn't a problem last year either. That argument is complete garbage.

It's usually silly to blame injuries for shortcomings on a team, as teams deal with injuries every year, but the Bears dealt with a massive number of injuries in key places last year. Charles Tillman was healthy for maybe 2 weeks all of last season, Lance Briggs went down for a large part of the season, DJ Williams was out for most of the season, forcing a rookie to start. On top of that, the Bears had to deal with injuries to Henry Melton, Stephen Paea, and Nate Collins. That's every one of their main defensive tackles. Sure, there was something beyond that, but not much, and they were forced to move Corey Wootton, who was expected to be one of their best pass rushers off the end, inside to play tackle (if you ask me, it should have been Peppers). This not only meant that the run defense was soft, with the Bears being very thin at DT and linebacker suddenly, but it also means that the pass rush suffers and the secondary is suddenly more exposed, and I think we all know what happened when the Bears safety group was exposed. This wasn't normal injuries for the Bears, this was a whole mess of injuries that would have severely damaged any defense in the league.

The biggest re-signing this offseason was obviously the Cutler one (notice how I got cute and used the word "recent" above). Cutler was really starting to look strong last year before he got hurt the first time. Sure, he had the one bad game against Detroit, but that was really his only bad game when he was healthy. Sure, they were not all zingers, but at the same time he played against the tougher defensive portions of the schedule anyway, so only having one bad game against good defenses is actually pretty good. At the same time, the biggest concern for him will be his health. He hasn't been able to stay healthy lately. Of course, the Jerry Angelo/Lovie Smith regime and their inability to protect him at all can be partly to blame. If they can bring Josh McCown back, that would be huge, as I feel like he's a player who helps the team beyond what he does on the field. Also, he's a safety net that the Bears can really feel safe with if Cutler does get hurt again.

Some of the other big moves the Bears made were the ones where they said thanks and good bye. Devin Hester was one of those. They have options that are dirt cheap on the roster, at least cheaper than what Hester was going to demand. To add on, the rule change a few years ago that moved kickoffs up has also really limited the use of kick returners. Punt returns are a little bit more important, but the Bears have had guys other than Hester do a great job returning punts in the past. Eric Weems is the first person that comes to mind for both, and he also can come in to make the occasional catch (something Hester wasn't as good at). Either way, an adequate to good return man can be had for pretty cheap in the NFL these days, and the Bears seem to understand that.

Letting Adam Podlesh go was also a smart move. I thought Podlesh seemed like a cool guy and all, and he was a decent punter, but that was really about it. One of the reasons the Bears went out to get him was because Brad Maynard just didn't have the leg strength to stick around anymore. Well, leg strength wasn't what Podlesh brought either. In fact, Podlesh was actually pretty good at getting balls inside the 20, but there were just so many times that a solid to good punt could have really helped the Bears, and Podlesh would unleash a terrible punt. They don't need a Ray Guy or anything like that, but they do need someone reliable, and while Podlesh had his moments, reliable is not a word I would use to describe him in his time with the Bears.

Going into free agency and the draft, the Bears can look to get 3-4 starters with where the cap is (assuming they don't clear up more cap space, and assuming another starter or two is re-signed). I'd love to see McCown and Tillman brought back. Anyway though, the offense seems to be in good shape, the defense is what they really need to address. They'll need to bring back either Collins or Melton. They can't expect what happened last year to happen again, but getting one more DT to be insurance wouldn't hurt. First, however, they need to make sure to bring in someone to help the pass rush. Bringing Wootton back would be a good idea, especially with McClellin moving to linebacker. Peppers may be wise to cut at this point, as the Bears may be able to sign a pass rusher that, at this point, is more effective for less than what they would get in cap room. Of course, I have also always been in favor of moving Peppers inside, like what happened with Dan Hampton later in his career (and worked very well). Peppers does have the size to move inside, and I think it would be worth a shot.

The bottom line is that 1 major pass rusher, at least 1 legitimate safety (2 preferred), and one more corner, be it Tillman (hopefully) or someone else. Those really should be the free agent targets. In the draft, if I'm the Bears I go safety in the first round (tackle was bad last year, but that had more to do with injury, the Bears were healthy at safety and it wasn't even close to being an NFL quality duo), the second round I go defensive line. It depends on what's the best available, a pass rusher or a tackle. From there they make whatever changes are needed on the defensive line. That draft pick will likely be a rotational guy, but not a starter yet. After that, more secondary help as well as a tight end who can catch, to backup Bennett would be nice as well. From there, center is going to need to be addressed pretty soon, as Garza may be done after this season. They also may want to take a pick somewhere at a spot where they can just take the best guy available, regardless of position, preferably in the 3rd or 4th round. Remember that the Bears do not have a 7th round pick this year.

Overall, the weaknesses of the Bears are there, but it's not going to be impossible to fix them. Improving the safety situation is gong to need to be a high priority. The tackle situation will be greatly improved just with reasonable health and one of Collins or Melton brought back. The high cap number for next year had to be a pleasant surprise for the Bears, and they should be able to take full advantage of that.

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