Last season saw an embarrassingly bad season for the Cubs and an embarrassingly bad finish for the White Sox. The Cubs had the excuse of being in the opening stages of a rebuild. The White Sox had an aging team that they were trying to get just a little bit more out of. Sure, the White Sox also had guys like Chris Sale and Dayan Viciedo, both of which were and still very likely are building blocks for the future. However, the bottom line was that for the 93rd time in the last 94 seasons, despite having two baseball teams, Chicago was without a championship.
The Cubs, after starting a rebuild, were playing the 2012 season with scraps. They had dealt a promising young pitcher in Andrew Cashner for a promising young first base prospect in Anthony Rizzo. The biggest draw on the team going in was a 22 year old shortstop named Starlin Castro. A player who could put up 200 hits in a season despite not being able to draw a walk. He could make any spectacular play in the field, or mess up any easy play. Alphonso Soriano was a player who had started to draw the ire of fans after his huge contract didn't get the Cubs the championship that they were hoping for during his first couple of seasons on the team. Since that season he had dealt with knee issues that had limited his time and overall play.
As the season went on the Cubs made more and more trades. Despite a bump in the road, they wound up trading away fan favorite Ryan Dempster (who lost that status after that bump in the road among a small, but vocal group of fans). Also traded away was free agent "lightning in a bottle" signing Paul Maholm. During the draft the Cubs picked up Albert Almora, a guy who's only true great tools are his attitude and leadership, but who scouts see as someone able to do everything very well still. As the season went along, emerging starter Jeff Samardzija was shut down. Shortly before the deadline, Matt Garza, a player the Cubs were looking to trade, also went down with an injury that ended his season.
With one starting pitcher that was in the rotation to start the season, the Cubs went from a team that, in July actually posted a winning record (although they were well below .500 thanks to a terrible start to the season) to a team that finished the season with a whimper, losing over 100 games for the first time since 1966. This held them down to the second worst record in the league.
With the White Sox it was a very different, but equally disappointing season. They were not expected to do very well after finishing under .500 the previous season. They had a number of huge contracts for under-performing players. Adam Dunn, who had been signed before the previous season was the poster child for this, his 4 year deal that was going to be $14 million for the 2012 season looked terrible for a guy who hit well below .200 and only hit 11 home runs in 415 at bats. Not only that, but he's a clogger on the basepaths who can't field either. However, there were others. Alex Rios had been playing below expectations since the White Sox had picked him up off waivers just a couple of seasons earlier, and Jake Peavy had a huge contract that was paying him to sit on the disabled list.
The White Sox came out strong though. Paul Konerko, one of the best players to ever put on the White Sox uniform, came out very strong. His power was not quite what it had been the past couple of seasons, but he was hitting very well for average and driving in more than a fair number of runs. Alex Rios also came out very strong, putting up his best season in a White Sox uniform. The White Sox spent the vast majority of the season in first place in the AL Central, ahead of the heavily favored Detroit Tigers, who had just added Prince Fielder and had Miguel Cabrera putting up a career season, which ended in him winning the triple crown and the AL MVP. Not to mention one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, Justin Verlander, was right there in that rotation. The fact that the White Sox were even in it was a pleasant surprise, much less leading the way for most of the year. However, as the season went on the White Sox became progressively average and then just bad. Paul Konerko's hot start molded its way into an abysmal second half of the season. By the last week of the season it was painfully obvious that the White Sox would be missing October baseball once again. Since winning the World Series in 2005 they had only made the World Series once out of 7 seasons at that point.
So enter the offseason. The Cubs continued to go with the sign low method. They signed players like Scott Feldman, Scott Baker, and Nate Schierholtz. They also made their biggest signing over the last couple of seasons, signing Edwin Jackson to a 4 year deal. While it was obvious that the Cubs were not going to be a very good team, at the same time they were at least looking to play decent baseball for the city of Chicago.
With the White Sox, they were not giving it up. They signed Jeff Keppinger to help fill their void at third base. Young guys like Chris Sale, Alejandro De Aza, and Dayan Viciedo were returning, and veterans like Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn (who was the AL comeback player of the year in 2012), and Jake Peavy (who also had a good 2012) were back. The White Sox looked poised to make one more run at returning to the glory of 2005. However, they also let go of AJ Pierzynski. Pierzynski had lost almost all of his once very good defensive ability, but was coming off the best offensive season of his career, and could still call a great game, even calling a perfect game from Philip Humber in 2012. The White Sox felt it was Tyler Flowers' time to finally make his mark.
Well, the White Sox didn't start off great, but they didn't take themselves out of it early either. They were under .500 (outside of very early) until late May when they finally climbed their way up to .500. White Sox fans were preparing for the inevitable run the White Sox would make to keep them in the hunt for at least most of the rest of the season, and hopefully pull them into the playoffs near the end of the season. However, that was not to happen. The White Sox had success against the Cubs over the last few seasons, and that was supposed to be their stepping stone towards the rest of the season. However, that did not happen. Not only did the Cubs beat the White Sox, but in the 3 games they were able to complete (one game was rained out), the Cubs outscored the White Sox 24-6. From there on out the White Sox went into free fall. They put up the worst record in baseball over the following stretch including another loss to the Cubs, sealing the season sweep. The front office eventually realized that they could not recover, and despite strong seasons from Jake Peavy, Chris Sale, and Alex Rios, realized that they would not be able to recover and went into seller mode, giving up on the season. They were able to turn Alex Rios and Jake Peavy into solid prospects, Peavy netting Avisial Garcia, a high level prospect in the Peavy trade. They also were able to trade Jesse Crain for a PTBNL, which still has yet to materialize into who the player is.
The Cubs, on the other hand, started very slow. April was an abysmal month for the team as far as record went, but until the last day of April they had not yet played in a game decided by more than 3 games. This was an omen of sorts towards the rest of the season though. After their April struggles flooded into early May the Cubs finally seemed to be figuring it out. From there up until early to mid August the Cubs played ball that was right around the .500 mark. Sure, it wasn't anything special, but clearly well above expectations. Many of the negative fans had them losing 100 games, and while that's still not statistically impossible, they would have to go 9-30 for that to happen. Given that their starting rotation isn't anywhere close to as depleted as it was to close out the 2012 season, that's extremely unlikely. Nate Schierholtz, a finally healthy Matt Garza, and Alphonso Soriano helped the Cubs to net several more good prospects as well.
Moving forward, the White Sox are now entering what should be a rebuilding phase. Chris Sale is an excellent player to build around, but they're going to need more around him. Adam Dunn only has another season after this season on his contract, and he's clearly not a guy to build a lineup around. Paul Konerko is looking like he's near the end of the line, and in his late 30's, it's about that time. Alex Rios is gone, and so is Jake Peavy. Dayan Viciedo has had a very disappointing season. His average is 10 points lower than last season, and his power numbers look to be way down. They are likely to lock up a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft, currently with the 3rd worst record in baseball. In what currently looks to be a solid draft, they should be able to pick up a good prospect with that pick.
With the Cubs it's starting to get more complicated. The first big step in the rebuilding process is looking like it's close to coming to fruition. Javier Baez made the jump from high A to AA this season without missing a beat, absolutely killing AA pitching. The best sign for the Cubs is that for a long time AA has been the point in the minor leagues that has been said to make or break a prospect, and Baez is beyond making it at this point, hitting in the high .200's and hitting home runs on a regular basis. His fielding still has to come around, but his offense should more than make up for any weaknesses in his fielding. First round draft pick Kris Bryant had to shake off the rust early, but has been absolutely destroying minor league pitching since then, looking like he's going to be on the fast track to make the major league roster. Jorge Soler got off to a great start before an injury eventually caused him to have to shut it down for the season, but starting at AA next season is not out of the question, which should make for a late 2014 or early to midseason 2015 call-up. Albert Almora is further off, but he has been nothing short of spectacular so far, despite a couple of injuries. He should be starting 2014 in high A and possibly making it up by late 2015. Arismendy Alcantara has become a breakout star for the Cubs in AA ball and will almost certainly start the 2014 season at AA. The pitching in the system, which was seen as a weakness in the system going into the season has seen several guys stepping up, most notably Pierce Johnson, who was a compensatory pick between the first and second round. The Cubs also picked up CJ Edwards, a potential future ace in their Matt Garza trade. They sent him to Daytona where he has been very strong so far and should start next season in AA, possibly making it up by late 2014, but more likely sometime in 2015, assuming he continues to pitch very well.
Not only those guys, but the Cubs set up a second wave of strong prospects to follow the upcoming wave by putting together one of, at the time of the signing, best looking international class signings ever. The Cubs got both of the top 2 international prospects in OF Eloy Jimenez, a line drive hitting stud out of the Dominican Republic, and shortstop Gleyber Torres. They also picked up #16 prospect Erling Moreno as well as a couple of other higher prospects from this year's international pool. While none of these guys are guarantees by any means, most of them being in the 16-18 range in age, they're still the best guys to sign at the current time to set the team up for future success. The Cubs have done an excellent job at building up their minor league system, not only with players, but also with coaches and coordinators, and especially scouting, to bring the team future success.
So the question that makes this complicated is what the Cubs do in the 2013/2014 offseason. Do they start to sign bigger name free agents in order to try to get ready for winning, hopefully putting together a team that at least competes for the playoffs in 2014, or do they give it another season, seeing as the prospects (assuming they make it), who are up by the end of 2014, will need their time to get acclimated to the major league game. Also, they could be thinking that there won't be enough up by the end of the season to make it even worth it. However, it may be a good idea to get the team used to winning by the end of the 2014 season and maybe even being in a race for the playoffs where it could be worth it.
If I'm in charge, I don't drastically change the plan. You don't want to weigh the team down with contracts that will make it harder for them to sign their better prospects once arbitration comes up and beyond that. However, the Cubs, if they're good, will make a whole lot of money, and it's hard to believe that any contract signed this offseason will hold them down when a player that's called up in 2014 is ready to start making more money. I'd go ahead and sign another bigger contract. The areas I'd sign would be a 3-4 year deal for a good outfielder, and a similar deal for a relief pitcher. If there's a starting pitcher there that's worth it, go ahead and sign them to a solid deal if guys like Rusin don't look like they're ready to become an everyday MLB starter. The Cubs still probably won't be legitimate contenders, no matter what, next season, but if Castro and Rizzo can get things figured out and if someone like Bryant or Baez can come up at some point in 2014 and add a lot of protection and power to the offense, they can at least compete for a playoff spot. However, that's a lot of ifs, and the more ifs, the lower the possibility. It's not out of the question, and the playoffs are a complete crapshoot, but at the same time, it's not likely. However, go ahead and set this team up to take another step forward, at very least. Take the last offseason and kick it up one notch.
With the White Sox the story is different. They picked Courtney Hawkins in the first round last season as an athletic guy that they wanted to mold into a baseball player. Hawkins' athleticism makes him a candidate to be a good 5 tool type of player, but he's very far off. After a strong start in 2012 in the White Sox system, he's cooled off. This year he's hitting under .200, but does have solid power numbers. In 369 PAs he has struck out 143 times, reminding White Sox fans a bit too much of a more athletic version of a certain player who has been a bit of a disappointment. 2013 first round pick Tim Anderson has been playing in Kannapolis, and despite low power numbers and a mediocre average and subpar OPS has swiped 21 bases, only getting caught 4 times after 240 PAs. On top of that, he's walking at a decent rate and not striking out much for a 20 year old player. The solid start for him does offset the disappointment towards Hawkins a bit, but at the same time Hawkins had that solid start and has been pretty weak this past season. Outside of that, the White Sox still probably currently have a bottom 5, at best a bottom 10 minor league system. On the plus side again though, Garcia has made it up to the big league team and is looking pretty solid so far.
The White Sox are still a long way from competing though. Flowers has been a solid defender, but has been an absolute liability on offense. His backup, Josh Phegley, offered some early optimism, but has been just bad at the plate since then. Gordon Beckham has offered some optimism, hitting fairly well at the plate this season in an injury shortened season, but at the same time he's not someone whose bat I would be too confident with if I were in the front office of the White Sox. The sample size isn't especially large. Alexei Ramirez has really picked it up lately after a very slow start, but he's going to be 32 by the end of the season and is not likely going to be a bit part of the future plans of the team. Alejandro De Aza has been pretty solid, despite some glaring weaknesses, but he'll be 30 himself shortly after the start of next season. The players coming up in the minor league system just don't match up to what's going to be going downhill on the major league club. What the White Sox need to do is continue to sell in the offseason. See if there's a team that's close that would like Alexei Ramirez. Beckham is a great defensive 2nd baseman, see if they can't sell high on him. Everyone should be off limits except for Reed and Sale. Viciedo is a tough case. He's been below average the last couple of years. Even in 2012 when he was seen as a building block, his OPS+ was below 100. This year it's 83, and that's much further below average. His calling card is his bat, and he really needs to put those things. He's only 24, so he has time to learn, but at the same time he's only got a year or two to prove himself before the White Sox will need to move on. For the White Sox it's time to go into complete rebuild.
Now, a complete rebuild has a very bad stigma attached to it. However, if you look at the Yankees of the late 80's and early 90's, the Red Sox of the early to late mid-90's, the Cardinals of the mid to late 90's (outside of a year and one roided up player), teams do the rebuild thing and come out much better for it. If the team has enough money to hold on to their assets once the players come up to the major league level and start to demand money, then the results are normally good enough to at least give the team a chance to win. Even teams that don't have the money to hold on to their players have seen it, see the Florida Marlins, who have never had that money, but in their 20 years have won 2 world championships. The Orioles are another team giving themselves chances right now after an extended rebuild.
Right now the Cubs are going into what looks like it can be the better stages of a rebuild. The White Sox need to try to at least get to that level. If they're going to have a chance to become a team that once again will have a regular chance to win, then that's going to be the way to do it. Especially after the most recent CBA, which is going to make it more difficult to use free agency as a building tool, the White Sox need to get as good of a start now on rebuilding before other teams make their start. The teams that are ahead of the curve will be the ones with the best chances to succeed with this new CBA.
This is a tough time to be a Chicago baseball fan, but if the teams play their cards right, within 3-5 years, depending on who you root for, it could very well become a very exciting time for Chicago baseball. The Cubs are within just a few years of showing what can be made out of their current rebuild while the White Sox are at the perfect time to really get their rebuild going. Whie it may not be ideal to pay more attention to the minor league teams than the major league team, this is the time to do it.
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